[i_pick_winners1]

I took a long hard look at this one -- my first impression coming into this MNF game tonight, after seeing who was playing, was take whoever was getting the points. Both of these teams are great, both feature juggernaut offenses and Houston really features a great defense that could prove to be the turning point for them on the road.

Last night my play on GB was because I knew that Aaron Rodgers would not let his team lose twice on national television. GB defense showed up and made some huge plays that turned out to be the difference makers, while playing the slop that they love to play in. I get the same fuzzy feeling about Tom Brady in New England tonight, and that's why I'm going to lay house on NE with the spread, as well as on the moneyline.

Now, NE has some questionables -- Hernandez, Welker, Lloyd etc. In my opinion, they all play tonight. Welker was questionable last week and put up great numbers. But this boils down to, "Is Tom Brady still the all-american winner he has been in years past?" -- and the answer to that question is "Yes", as shown by his play this season. He will find a way to win this game.

So, when you look at those 4 points, ask yourself -- when the Houston Texans get up to Foxborogh, MASS, in 30 degree weather, in front of 65,000 fans, on national television and up against possibly the greatest quarterback to play the game in the last 10 years, are 4 points going to matter? Are those 4 points going to matter when the Pats D & special teams step up on national television to potentially lay a legitimate smack down on Houston? Is Matt Schaub going to be the man to march into MASS and get it done on Monday Night? Nah.

This will be a homestand statement, similar to the one the Giants made last night.

52% of the spread action on NE, 56% on the over. I'm with the public on this one.

If you want to look at the fundementals, check the smart chart. Pretty evenly matched. Doesn't make a huge argument for NE. But, it does to me when I factor in the weather and home field advantage:

HOU ---------- NE

29.3 PTS FOR 35.8
18.4 PTS AGNST 21.7
10.8 DIFF 14.2
247.1 PASS YDS 285.5
142.5 RUSH YDS 140.8
235.0 PASS D 279.9
87.6 RUSH D 100.8
-1.2 TO DIFF -2.0

Betting NE big and also laying on the over 51.5 and playing a pleaser with NE -16 at +425.

[2daBank]

welker on 1 of my fantasy teams,,he been questionable every week this season, the only question is does he catch 10 or 15 passes,,lol...

i like the 1st half over as both these teams really like to step on gas early,,,foster been struggling some lately, pats run d is solid and im sure are coming in with a priority of stopping foster from controlling gm, think you see some heavy run action passing early for hou where they either get johnson over the top or if they focus on him punish the middle of the field with daniels, kubiak has done this in several gms and has to realize the best way to get the run gm going is to stretch the field early so the safties and lbs have to respect the fake...far as pats go i think this be one of those games where they dont use ridley and the power run gm very much early on and opt to go with woodhead as with edelman out he is another quick shifty guy that is hard to account for and gives brady another option, woodhead usually the guy in gms where pats look to spread field and go no huddle which i fully expect in this gm as bellicheat no dummy and im sure he has seen what most have that hou problems on d are in the passing gm right now and really struggled when pack spread them out, not only does that attack a weakness but it will help neutralize hou strength as it will wear down the front 7 going with a quick pace and forcing them to chase welker and woodhead shifty asses all over the field..i keep hearing how "square" over is and maybe it is, i dunno to me when i hear that shit it just tells me person to lazy to cap the gm...these teams 1 and 2 in the league in 1st half scoring and both offenses are efficient enough that i trust we wont get many stalled out drives leading to fgs,,maybe one teams comes out conservative but it would shock me if both did as that really playing right into the opposing defenses hands here, i think someone pops this cherry early enough (sometime in 1st 8 min) and then they trade a few tds,,,really think 4 tds in 1st half a strong possibility as i just cant imagine BB playing it safe and taking the chance to let hou dictate the gm keeping their d fresh, just doenst make sense to me, maybe im wrong, wouldnt be the 1st time and unfortunately not last..i like half over better than gm as if either gets hold of the lead then you will start seeing the smash mouth run gm against a d that should already be wore down..

[McDabs]

Just wondering, if your playing NE "BIG"... what's the reason for playing the over? Is there really value there? If i was playing any team BIG the last thing I would do is make an additional bet that pretty much requires the other team to score points, but thats just me.

I feel like all value is lost on the Pats.. Unless you grabbed it at -3 (wish i did) I wouldn't play 4. ML Pats or nothing at this point. Get outta here with that -16 BS... LOL was better plays at +425 (basically any 2 team, small under dog parlay) has a better shot than -16 in a big game like this in that kind of weather.

[i_pick_winners1]

welker on 1 of my fantasy teams,,he been questionable every week this season, the only question is does he catch 10 or 15 passes,,lol...

REALLY well said, I have him on Fantasy, too. I laughed.

[i_pick_winners1]

I do think there's value on the over. I think we'll have a game similar to NYG/NO, where NE puts up a huge 40+ spot, but is sure to let up a couple scores from Houston. Both of these teams can and will get on the board, but the difference makers will be all on NE's side. I'd guess a 41-24 final.

[Sir_Don_Yeggins]

I do think there's value on the over. I think we'll have a game similar to NYG/NO, where NE puts up a huge 40+ spot, but is sure to let up a couple scores from Houston. Both of these teams can and will get on the board, but the difference makers will be all on NE's side. I'd guess a 41-24 final.

The Giants, the reigning superbowl champions, smoked a 5-7 team with no head coach ... and you think the Patriots will do that to an 11-1 team? Lol. You sound like my roommates who are die hard Pats fans and only know how to talk football when they are spitting out generic tom brady stats and updating his wikidpedia page. Get a grip of reality pal there is no way the pats blow out the texans tn

[i_pick_winners1]

The Giants, the reigning superbowl champions, smoked a 5-7 team with no head coach ... and you think the Patriots will do that to an 11-1 team? Lol. You sound like my roommates who are die hard Pats fans and only know how to talk football when they are spitting out generic tom brady stats and updating his wikidpedia page. Get a grip of reality pal there is no way the pats blow out the texans tn

Well, now I'm DEFINITELY sticking by my 41-24 prediction.

[dkthrilla33]

Well, now I'm DEFINITELY sticking by my 41-24 prediction.

thought it was 41-24

[Sir_Don_Yeggins]

31-27 texans

[R.P. McMurphy]

I_pick you and I are on the same page! Pats win this comfy by 2 scores and maybe more!!

[i_pick_winners1]

Yeah, I see it being comfy. Usually like to fade the public too in games like this, especially when they start handing out extra points. Just laid more on NE as I see the spread getting to 7 by gametime.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Gonna wait on forecast but if things are not too sloppy I see Pats going up-tempo in this one and hitting 30+ fairly easy. Brady and Beli will keep their foot on the gas for the whole 60!

[i_pick_winners1]

Yeah, you KNOW Belicheck would run it up against Houston on MNF to make a statement.

[rocky16]

Pats 34 Houston 20.

[Gamble32jn]

Man im a big NE fan but Im liking the + points here for the Texans. Weather conditions kinda scare me a little for the Texans there but Im willing to risk it and take the points I belive. I got the over for a good amount as well. GreenBay screwed me on the Over last night...well the lions did actually.

[dredmahawkus]

its raining off and on and 60 degrees here!!!

[Tony Truong]

I do think there's value on the over. I think we'll have a game similar to NYG/NO, where NE puts up a huge 40+ spot, but is sure to let up a couple scores from Houston. Both of these teams can and will get on the board, but the difference makers will be all on NE's side. I'd guess a 41-24 final.

Let go guys . Money ALL IN for Patriots tonight you will get BIG WIN ! . Good luck guys.

[i_pick_winners1]

Spread action split 50/50 but 75% of the money falls on New England. The big money is on NE tonight.

[i_pick_winners1]

It's almost too easy sometimes.

[i_pick_winners1]

Not only do Lloyd, Welker & Hernandez start, they have 100% of the Patriots touchdowns.

[i_pick_winners1]

And the NE -16 play is CAKE.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Sometimes it's just this easy

[i_pick_winners1]

R.P. congrats you were on it since this afternoon. You called it, too. Way to cash!

[i_pick_winners1]

Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd T.J. Yates is in the game. Any question as to whether it's over or not?

[McDabs]

Gotta come back here and give you some respect.. didnt think NE -16 was the play, nice hit.

[i_pick_winners1]

Thanks a lot man, I appreciate that

[JayLA]

playing a pleaser with NE -16 at +425.

Nice hit.
Why not an alternate line straight instead of a two team pleaser? less risk, right?

Either way, you sounded sure of this so I hope you pounded it like a Curacao/Colombian whore

[i_pick_winners1]

I did pound it, thanks -- picked up a couple dimes. And I misspoke, I played an alternate line straight, I just call them pleasers (even though they're technically not). Thanks pal.