Handicapping isn't easy, is it? The answer to that question varies depending on whether you're winning or losing. Well, as far as handicapping New England Patriot home games are concerned, it's very easy.
There is a lot of media build up for this game and rightfully so, since it combines the two best teams (combined records wise, this late in the season) facing off on Monday Night Football. That's great for media hype, but this game isn't as critical as it seems. If you want to buy the "potential #1 seed position, home field advantage, bye spot, etc" talk, go right ahead. In hindsight, this game probably doesn't have an impact on any of those things..
Sometimes basic math is the best math. If I offered you a -200 price on a wager that was 73-13 (84.8%) over the last 12 years, would you take that bet simply based relevant historical data? Absolutely. What if that same trend was an astonishing 27-2 (93.1%) since 2009? Do I even need to ask?
Well, you'll get that chance tomorrow night when the Texans visit the Patriots. The numbers above are none other than Brady's home win/loss record. If you want to get cute and try to find justification for why the Texans will win and/or cover, be my guest. It's the classic case of trying to find an angle or trying to be "sharp" when there isn't even a need to crack the book. I don't need any larger of a sample size or more justification. Neither should you..
New England ML, -200, 30 units to win 15.