Expect Green Bay to keep things close this Sunday when they visit the Vikings in Minnesota.
Green Bay is 2-8 ATS vs Minnesota who won both meetings by three points last year. The Packers are 1-6-1 ATS in division play while the Vikings are 7-1 ATS in division play and 8-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Green Bay comes in a bit underrated and has the #6 & #12 units over the last four weeks versus Minnesota's #20 & #6 units. GB’s young OL has settled into the zone-blocking schemes and, after averaging 81 ypg (3.3) rushing in the first four games, have averaged 157 ypg (5.1). The OL as a whole has been impressive in pass protection allowing 11 sacks (3rd) though Brett Favre’s ability to dump the ball has helped. GB also catches Minnesota at a good time as WR Marcus Robinson (13 rec 15.4) has missed the last two games, both DT Kevin Williams and Pat Williams are beat up, and MLB Napolean Harris is out 2-3 weeks with a wrist injury.
While GB’s pass D is awful allowing 268 ypg (57%) with a 13-7 ratio, they are second in the NFL with 27 sacks and should give the Vikings' OL a challenge. Minnesota has passed for 196 ypg (67%) with a 3-6 ratio, and the WRs had several drops last week versus San Francisco that could have changed the flow of the game. We have gone with four 'ugly dog plays' the last four weeks in PS and have gone 4-0 in those plays, and look for GB to do enough vs a Minnesota offense that hasn’t shown much so far this year to cover for a 5th-straight week.
Think about this. Minny is laying the same number at home as they did last week to SF. Favre has not played well in the Met either. I think the Vikes win by a TD, IMO.
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Phil Steele: Pick Packers +5½ at Vikings
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