[rainman416]

Saint's started off the season in absolute trash form.. The bounty Scandal hit them hard, they missed peyton early and YES they nearly achieved the worst defensive yards per game AVG in the history of the NFL... However...

Since getting back on track after losing by one to the "then" hot GB packers, Saints have gone 5-2 including wins against ATL, and the underrated Bucs.

Saints are a dome team as well and rivals in ATL so the homefield advantage that ATL usually utilizes very well, is lost in this game. ATL will want revenge, but the Saints WANTing ness will equal or dominate the falcons' who are now pretty much locked into as division champs. Not suggesting they won't give it everything.. but the revenge angle is weak and likely irrelevant..

Not saying this is a make or break thing, but it's interesting to know that the Saints had egg's thrown at them by airport employees while arriving in ATL.. just to add flavor to this already bitter rivalry.

Saints need this win.. that's not irrelevant.. Don't lose sight of the fact that this team hasn't changed a whole lot since they won the super bowl in prime fashion in 2009, aside from their all star coach who's absence they seem to have now recovered from.

TBH I see no value in betting the falcons here who have been trending negatively in their last 8 games where, despite being 7-1 they have only won by more than a score in one of those games which was against philly..
They barely beat CAR (by 2), OAK (by 3), DAL (by 6), ARI (by 5) - which were all in ATL by the way... then last week Jusssssst finished off the Bucs by 1 point..

Can they beat the saints tonight? Sure.. do they need to? No. If they do win, I don't see it being by much.. maybe 4-5 points MAX.. the value here is in the hot handed Brees/Graham combo, with a newly found explosive running game in Ivory, Thomas and Ingram, a defense that has now recovered from their brutal start.. again.. not a player issue as much as a coaching issue..

This game has Saints+3.5 value written ALLL over it.. and after reading your post and writing this reply I'm feeling much better about the play win or lose.

Saints+3.5 (x3 units)
Saints-ML (x2 units)

Wouldn't be suprised if this game turned into a nasty shoot-out.. Will be looking to tease this game as well (imo almost a lock).. but I don't like that word..

Saints+10.0
OVER 50.5
@+102
(x7)
BOL either way, will be the first to call it if I'm off.. but I will be risking my +55 unit season here in a confident way regardless.

[MobFade]

Definitely like Saints in a couple teasers here. Flip side, will probably get on Atlanta either first half or buy the side off the hook looking to middle. Matt Ryan has been looking like crap lately but against this secondary he should be able to score at will. Sproles back helps add another dimension to the Saints an Brees is Brees, but travel on a short week I like ATL by somewhere around a TD.