KC -2 o/u 49.5

[2Sweeet]

Remember with one week to prep, the Packers held the Eagles to 22 pts (gave up 19.9 on season) and had the 7th ranked scoring D, Rams gave up 28 and have the 17th ranked scoring D (gave up 23 per game). Commanders had the worst defense of all the teams the Eagles faced in the playoffs.
This will be the best defense the Eagles have faced. They put up 27 against the Steelers, 24 against the Ravens. Those round out the top 10 scoring defenses they've faced.
(24.3 pts avg against top 10 scoring defenses).

KC will be the best defense they've played against all year. Expect them to get to 19-23 pts.

Thanks for reminding us

[2Sweeet]

LOL this was another train wreck thread. U almost made 40 picks here and didn't win any??? Shocking... Is that why it took u 2 weeks to come back? ZZZZZZ

[darrell74]

^
Last 40+ posts, no winners
But bitches about politics like it's Mastadon/blue skies

[jackpot269]

Phily +1 (-105)


over 48.5 (-105)

Two more winners. darrell74

asked and got

[Foxx]

Did you mean Hurts MVP?

Exactly, it was a typo

[DJK]

Phily +1 (-105)


over 48.5 (-105)

Great call on the Eagles. Hopefully, I didn't jinx it by saying that.

[darrell74]

You are now chasing and it never ends well.

I don't recommend it

[DJK]

Adding +1400 Chiefs ML

Well, I got money to burn

Burn you will.

[DJK]

Philly Moneyline

Barkley MVP

Did you mean Hurts MVP?

[darrell74]

Adding +1400 Chiefs ML

Well, I got money to burn

[DJK]

Just added Chiefs live +4 1/2 -118
12 minutes left in 2nd quarter

You are now chasing and it never ends well.

[DJK]

Leaning over

I thought the total would be closer to 53

Got 2 weeks to think about it, however

When the score is like this where one team has a huge lead, the 2nd half leads to almost no scoring unless Nick Sirianni wants to rub it in.

The Eagles will just run, run, and run some more then punt, and the Chiefs will have to throw like crazy which falls into the Eagles' defensive strength.

I should bet the 2nd half under.

[darrell74]

Just added Chiefs live +4 1/2 -118
12 minutes left in 2nd quarter

[darrell74]

At the close
KC -1 48.5 ml-125

[darrell74]

+105
Patrick Mahomes first to pass 250+ yards
Hundred bucks


(Jalen Hurts wad +400, neither +150)

[darrell74]

+1000
Game winning walk off field goal
Only 50 bucks to win 500, worth a shot

[Foxx]

Philly Moneyline

Barkley MVP

[darrell74]

Just past noon on GameDay
KC now -1 48.5

One odd thing imo, my books are 10 cent juiced
No boost for Stations Casino

In the past, we've seen 5 cent, even 2 cent juice for such a game. But 10 cents is the most higest a game like this that you can get

[ddittie]

Remember with one week to prep, the Packers held the Eagles to 22 pts (gave up 19.9 on season) and had the 7th ranked scoring D, Rams gave up 28 and have the 17th ranked scoring D (gave up 23 per game). Commanders had the worst defense of all the teams the Eagles faced in the playoffs.
This will be the best defense the Eagles have faced. They put up 27 against the Steelers, 24 against the Ravens. Those round out the top 10 scoring defenses they've faced.
(24.3 pts avg against top 10 scoring defenses).

KC will be the best defense they've played against all year. Expect them to get to 19-23 pts.

[ddittie]

One person's pick bothers me and it's from Brandon Anderson at The Action Networks.

He's betting on KC and the main reason is Mahomes and pretty much the only reason besides Andy (or more like Steve Spagnuolo) having 2 weeks to prepare. Isn't that what everyone says when betting the Chiefs?

So, which has a better chance of happening?

KC stopping Saquon or Philadelphia stopping Mahomes?

Running is the old school style of dominant play-style. This was when the RB was the highest paid player in the NFL. Or was it still 2nd behind QBs? Either way, doesn't anybody remember the Cowboys era and before? That was huge offensive line, run game, strong defense. Philly is THAT. The thing is, those run powered offenses were essentially one dimensional, and if you stopped the run, and got behind, you couldn't come back because running the ball uses up the clock.

In a league focused primarily on stopping the pass, run teams look more dominant than they actually are. Busting out huge runs, selling out against the run, leads to huge run gains, and fast scoring.

The Chiefs will be able to stop Barkley, he is having a great year, but he's human, very human. He won't break 100 yards and this game will rely on what every big game relies on, the QB to make one or two plays, and not make a mistake.

Can Hurts do it? I don't think so. When they put it in his hands, they fell short, and that's why they have transitioned to this power run game. It won't work, unless their defense steps up and completely stuffs Mahomes. Otherwise, with a one possession game, in Mahomes hands, Chiefs win 85% of the time.

[jackpot269]

Phily +1 (-105)


over 48.5 (-105)

[DJK]

One person's pick bothers me and it's from Brandon Anderson at The Action Networks.

He's betting on KC and the main reason is Mahomes and pretty much the only reason besides Andy (or more like Steve Spagnuolo) having 2 weeks to prepare. Isn't that what everyone says when betting the Chiefs?

So, which has a better chance of happening?

KC stopping Saquon or Philadelphia stopping Mahomes?

[DJK]

Below is from a windbag Bill Barnwell at ESPN.

If the Kansas City Chiefs want their three-peat, they're going to have to beat the best team they've played in a Super Bowl in the Patrick Mahomes era. The Philadelphia Eagles have lost three games all season, two of them after their receivers dropped passes that would have clinched victories. Since their Week 5 bye, the Eagles have gone 15-1, posted a plus-27 turnover margin and won their games by an average of 13.8 points.

This Eagles team is better than the one the Chiefs beat two years ago in Super Bowl LVII and better than either of the San Francisco 49ers teams Kansas City topped in Super Bowls LIV and LVIII. Philadelphia is even scarier than the Tom Brady-led Tampa Bay Buccaneers who managed to give Mahomes his only championship game defeat in Super Bowl LV.

I wouldn't say this is the best Chiefs team we've seen, but it might be the wiliest. Rarely dominant but never out of it, the Chiefs put together a series of spectacularly close victories. Holding on to a victory against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1 by the length of Isaiah Likely's toenail portended what was to come all season. The Chiefs won games with fourth-down stops, field goals bouncing off uprights, kicks getting blocked and snaps being dropped. They found a way to sprinkle just enough magic dust into each victory. Their win over the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game, a measure of revenge for Buffalo costing the Chiefs a chance at an undefeated regular season in November, was their 15th consecutive victory in games decided by seven or fewer points.

The Eagles want their own revenge. If the team from two years ago knew it would get a 304-yard passing day with four touchdowns from Jalen Hurts, it would have liked its chances. Instead, the league's most fearsome pass rush failed to sack Mahomes, the Chiefs went 4-for-5 in the red zone and the Eagles were denied their second title in six seasons.

Can they deny the Chiefs from making history? A 2024 offseason for the ages has replenished the Eagles' roster, and they're the better team -- on paper. That starts with the player who might be the story of the season, a running back Kansas City has to stop if it has any hope of winning another title:


I cannot read the rest since it's ESPN+, but there's no need to waste more of my time.

[darrell74]

Saquon is better
But KC should be ready for it
Andy Reid has 2 weeks to figure it out

[DJK]

I just pulled the trigger on this.
Deciding factor, Andy Reid has 2 weeks to prepare for Ciriani

Philly just might be the better team, but I am comfortable getting beat by the better team if it does happen

San Francisco was supposed to beat them last year with Christian McCaffery and Brock Purdy was phuckin fantastic with a locksown defense to boot
KC found a way to win in overtime

When Dre Greenlaw went out with his Achilles injury in SB 58, I knew my bet was in trouble. If he played the whole game, I'm sure it would have made a difference. I don't know if this year's Eagles defense is better than them, but I would like to think so and we will find out soon enough.

Lastly, Christian McCaffery is no Saquon Barkley.

Saquon is in another level with his speed and power, so it will be interesting if KC can lock him down in the game. I certainly hope not.

I don't know if you saw Saquon do that backwards leap over a defensive player, but I'm sure Christian couldn't do that.

[DJK]

I think you don't want to tease the team that, if falling behind, has a higher likelihood of falling behind even more.

Which scenario do you think is more likely:
1) KC Offensive line not holding up, and KC unable to do *anything* on offense all game, and losing the game by 20+, like that one time to Tampa Bay?
or
2) Philadelphia falling behind 10-14, and trying to throw the ball to wide receivers a little too often, Hurts getting sacked a couple of times, maybe reaggravating the knee injury, or getting intercepted... and now Eagles are down by 20 (and it's getting even worse now)?

These are not very likely, but once you can run several scenarios like these in your head, you should have no problem knowing which side NOT to tease.

I think Chiefs are more likely to come back, and get within the teaser number, than the Eagles. I also think the game is 40% likely to land +/-3 either way, so yes in general I'd say teaser on spread will win 70% here... is 70% enough to be +EV?

Only Philadelphia has lost by a decent margin this year vs Tampa, but they always seem to lose vs Tampa so throw that out.

Then, neither will fall behind 20+ as KC almost never falls behind by too big of margin. The Eagles O-line is good enough that Hurts shouldn't get sacked that many times unless it's 100% given that they have to throw every down.

All I know is that the books are charging more to move Philly's line so isn't it obvious that they don't want you to be doing that?

[darrell74]

IMHO by Sunday afternoon big money bettors will flood the market with Eagles money.

I'm waiting for -105 on the chiefs ML

You could very well be right

Personally, I missed some lines last month by waiting and I don't want to wait no more
I think KC wins by 3

Their is a chance the Philly kicker misses an extra point kick and loses by one, but I'm going with my gut feeling.

[darrell74]

On a scale of 1-10

1 being the smallest wager, 10 being all in
I would say a 5, which is a big bet for me

I'll miss this money if I lose, but I'm not ruining my life over it

[darrell74]

I just pulled the trigger on this.
Deciding factor, Andy Reid has 2 weeks to prepare for Ciriani

Philly just might be the better team, but I am comfortable getting beat by the better team if it does happen

San Francisco was supposed to beat them last year with Christian McCaffery and Brock Purdy was phuckin fantastic with a locksown defense to boot
KC found a way to win in overtime

[dhristov211]

Chiefs-1.5 -105

IMHO by Sunday afternoon big money bettors will flood the market with Eagles money.

I'm waiting for -105 on the chiefs ML

[darrell74]

Chiefs-1.5 -105

[dhristov211]

I thought about that too, i.e. trying to find the other half to use in a teaser.

Then, even though the juice is a lot higher, it's just better for me to bet the Eagles at either +3.5-185 (went up from -175 at BetMGM) or +6.5-275 (also at BetMGM). This way, you don't have to worry about the other leg of the teaser at all.

It's interesting how moving the same or higher number of points for the Chiefs is cheaper.

Chiefs +1.5 (3 point move) is -130 and +3.5 (5 point move) is only -200. Even Chiefs +4.5 (6 point move) is cheaper at -225.

My opinion is that when the books are charging you more for something, it's usually the the right side.

I think you don't want to tease the team that, if falling behind, has a higher likelihood of falling behind even more.

Which scenario do you think is more likely:
1) KC Offensive line not holding up, and KC unable to do *anything* on offense all game, and losing the game by 20+, like that one time to Tampa Bay?
or
2) Philadelphia falling behind 10-14, and trying to throw the ball to wide receivers a little too often, Hurts getting sacked a couple of times, maybe reaggravating the knee injury, or getting intercepted... and now Eagles are down by 20 (and it's getting even worse now)?

These are not very likely, but once you can run several scenarios like these in your head, you should have no problem knowing which side NOT to tease.

I think Chiefs are more likely to come back, and get within the teaser number, than the Eagles. I also think the game is 40% likely to land +/-3 either way, so yes in general I'd say teaser on spread will win 70% here... is 70% enough to be +EV?

[DJK]

I feel like they're begging me to tease PHI +8. Just not sure other half. Maybe over??

I thought about that too, i.e. trying to find the other half to use in a teaser.

Then, even though the juice is a lot higher, it's just better for me to bet the Eagles at either +3.5-185 (went up from -175 at BetMGM) or +6.5-275 (also at BetMGM). This way, you don't have to worry about the other leg of the teaser at all.

It's interesting how moving the same or higher number of points for the Chiefs is cheaper.

Chiefs +1.5 (3 point move) is -130 and +3.5 (5 point move) is only -200. Even Chiefs +4.5 (6 point move) is cheaper at -225.

My opinion is that when the books are charging you more for something, it's usually the the right side.

[Madison]

I feel like they're begging me to tease PHI +8. Just not sure other half. Maybe over??

[darrell74]

I've had a couple
Did we just memory-hole the Eagles fans wanting their head coach to get fired?

Tonight/this morning, I'm leaning Chiefs