[Jeff Grant]

Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys


-Coming off their largest margin of victory in the Mike Shanahan era
-Eight games this season with 150 rushing yards or more, most in the NFL
-Scored 62 points points off turnovers this year (43 all of last season)
-Coming off its bye week (Cowboys in Week 5)
-Didn’t force a turnover since Week 7, forced three in the first half versus Eagles
-Washington is 4-4 when forcing a turnover (0-2 when not)
-29th in the league in defending the pass (289.2 ypg)


-QB Tony Romo sacked seven times
-Trailed early in eight of 10 games
-Recorded back-to-back wins for the first time this year (5-5 on the season)
-Romo is 21-3 SU during the month of November in his career


-Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games in this series
-The OVER is 6-0 during the Jason Garrett era when playing the second of back-to-back home games (above the total by an average of 11.3 points)
-RGIII, Michael Vick has a 112.2 passer rating in seven career games against the Cowboys (12 TDs, 3 INTs)

[MobFade]

Most Historical facts are cherry picked to prove a point you want to prove. That said Jeff, first 2 minutes of this vid about why Dallas is the play is the sharpest thing I've seen on this board. Good analysis too of Rob Ryan's scheme and how it is matched up with RGIII.

I say stick with the matchups, public perceptions, and line value.

[Jeff Grant]

Most Historical facts are cherry picked to prove a point you want to prove. That said Jeff, first 2 minutes of this vid about why Dallas is the play is the sharpest thing I've seen on this board. Good analysis too of Rob Ryan's scheme and how it is matched up with RGIII.

I say stick with the matchups, public perceptions, and line value.

Actually - most of the betting trends that I reference in these articles are ones that I research after formulating a play

With that being said - I understand your comment - thanks for checking in

[MobFade]

I meant it more as historical trends in the vein of "Garrett is 6-0 covering the over in second consecutive home games" seem to be variance based on limited sample size of uncorrelated circumstances. What is it about consecutive home games that causes his team to score more points?

I don't think all historical precedents are invalid, but you could come up with 10 similar stats that show a case for why it will go under.

[nj1035]

You have to be high to put money on the Cowboys. FYI been a Cowboys fan for 20 years.

You say their OL has been bad for a while - right now it's the worst it's ever been. They have injuries to their already below average starters, now they are just plain awful. Also, dual threat QB's tend to eat the Cowboys alive.

Wouldn't touch Dallas AT ALL.

[Jeff Grant]

I meant it more as historical trends in the vein of "Garrett is 6-0 covering the over in second consecutive home games" seem to be variance based on limited sample size of uncorrelated circumstances. What is it about consecutive home games that causes his team to score more points?

I don't think all historical precedents are invalid, but you could come up with 10 similar stats that show a case for why it will go under.

I find this statistic to be very telling of what the Cowboys will try to do defensively:

126.3: RGIII’s passer rating against the blitz.
While most rookie quarterbacks struggle to make plays in the face of pressure, Griffin has thrived. The rookie has seven passing touchdowns and only one interception against the blitz this year, posting a remarkable 9.82 YPA when defenses send more than four rushers. Perhaps even more telling is that Griffin has actually passed the ball on 84.8 percent of his dropbacks against the blitz, running on seven occasions and getting sacked on six others. Thus, despite possessing the ability to gash defenses on the ground, Griffin has generally chosen to stay in the pocket to allow time for his receivers to get open downfield.