1. #1
    AllLogicBets
    AllLogicBets's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-09-12
    Posts: 140
    Betpoints: 198

    All Logic's NFL Bets

    ATLANTA (-2.5) at New Orleans (-110)
    Have to take the 8-0 team to win by at least a field goal over the 3-5 team. New Orleans has a great offense but easily the worst defense in the NFL. They are missing a huge weapon in Darren Sproles but should be able to attack on the ground against the 2nd worst rush defense in the NFC. However, the Saints have the worst rush defense giving up 177 yards on the ground per game. Look for Atlanta's Michael Turner to have a nice day and allow Atlanta to control time of possession. Matt Ryan has taken the next step this year and I expect him to outshine Drew Brees on the day since he has a much easier matchup and more weapons. Take Atlanta.

    San Diego at TAMPA BAY (-3) (-110)
    This is a classic match-up of two teams heading in opposite directions. San Diego has lost 3 of 4 while Tampa Bay has won 3 of their last 4. In fact, San Diego hasn't beaten anyone not named Kansas City in their last 6 games. Look for Vincent Jackson to have a huge game against his former team. Give me the better team at home. Take Tampa Bay.

    DETROIT (-2.5) at Minnesota (-110)
    Once again, this is a case of two teams going opposite ways. After Minnesota's hot start to the season they have since lost 3 of their last 4. Detroit had high expectations coming into the year and got off to a slow start. However, they have turned things around and have won 3 of their last 4. Detroit is 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 contests at Minnesota, but they are catching the Vikings at the right time. Minnesota has been getting gashed on the ground recently and their defense appears to have lost all of that early season momentum. Meanwhile, they'll be without their biggest offensive weapon, Percy Harvin, as he has been ruled out. Take Detroit.

    DALLAS (-1.5) at Philadelphia (-110)
    This one is really simple for me....Philadelphia can't block anyone. Their offensive line is awful and look for Dallas to exploit that all game long. They should get a lot of pressure on Vick early and I expect that to create turnovers as the game goes on. Both of these teams are in a downward spiral and neither offense can be trusted in crunch time. Philly is at home in a desperate situation but defense always travels well and Dallas has a good one. Dallas is ranked 5th in the NFL in Yards Allowed per game while Philly is 15th. Take the better defense against the worst offensive line in the league.

    HOUSTON (+1) at Chicago (-110)
    This game is going to be a slugfest. Chicago is all the hype right now after their 50+ point performance last week. I think they are set up perfectly here for a let down. Houston has been terrific this year minus the stumble game against the Pack. Houston has the better quarterback, better running game, an equally good rush defense. Look for Houston to make Jay Cutler look like the inconsistent and mistake-prone Jay Cutler we are use to seeing. Chicago will be rocking with home field advantage on Sunday night but take Houston +1.

  2. #2
    actnatural
    actnatural's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-15-10
    Posts: 127
    Betpoints: 1145

    reading every threadz n every pickx from various website.............alot of NYG consensus............FADE NYG, RIDE CINCY !!!!!!!!!!!!

  3. #3
    AllLogicBets
    AllLogicBets's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-09-12
    Posts: 140
    Betpoints: 198

    Not the greatest week of the season but I'll take a winning week over a losing one. (3-2) record for tracked picks on this forum in the NFL.

    Good advice last week actnatural! I felt a trap there and always have a hard time trusting the Giants in the regular season which is why I didn't play the game at all.

    I wanted to post my current plays for week 11 as the lines have moved quickly on a few games. Write-ups will come later this week.

    GREEN BAY -3 at Detroit (-125)
    CINCINNATI -3.5 at Kansas City (-110)
    NEW ORLEANS -4.5 at Oakland (-110)
    OVER 54 New Orleans at Oakland (-110)
    BALTIMORE -2.5 at Pittsburgh (-110)

    Also, I am leaning towards another road team in Cleveland +8 but haven't officially made the play yet. Still more research to do but the above 5 picks are all official plays for me this week.

  4. #4
    AllLogicBets
    AllLogicBets's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-09-12
    Posts: 140
    Betpoints: 198

    Late play on Miami tonight. BTW....all of my NFL bets are 2x units unless stated otherwise. I will start tracking units as well.

    Miami at Buffalo ML on Miami (+120)
    The away team in all Dolphins games in the last 4.5 years is 50-23 ATS according to RJ Bell @RJinVegas. The Dolphins are the away team in this one so I like the 68% odds. Also, Miami is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 when losing by more than 14 the previous week. Looking for a good bounce back game from them. Oh yeah, the Bills have an awful defense. I'll go with the trends in this one.

  5. #5
    AllLogicBets
    AllLogicBets's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-09-12
    Posts: 140
    Betpoints: 198

    Rough start to my tracked picks (3-3 YTD).

    Here are my plays for 11/18:

    GREEN BAY -3
    at Detroit (-125) 2x
    Green Bay has won 12 of 13 vs Detroit and road favorites coming off of a bye are 25-4 ATS. The Packers are banged up but I really like them off of the bye week. Jordy Nelson will be back and I expect the offense to be clicking. Their defense is without Clay Matthews so the Lions should keep it close. Mike McCarthy is 5-1 at Ford Field and 17-7 in domes as the Packers head coach. Since Rodgers has been their QB the Packers truly have a 'dome' field advantage. He is #1 all-time in indoor passer rating at 117.0. Packer fans also travel extremely well and do a great job invading Detroit to make it feel like more of a neutral site. Swallow the points and take the better team that seems to have an advantage on the road at this venue.
    CINCINNATI -3.5 at Kansas City (-110) 2x
    This is mostly an eye test play. Cincinnati has looked impressive this season with Andy Dalton at quarterback while the Chiefs have looked like the worst team in the NFL. While Kansas City has historically been a difficult place for opponents to play, the Chiefs are 0-4 at home this season. The Bengals have not typically fared well as favorites but in this contest they have the better coach, better quarterback, and better defense. The Chiefs do lead the league at one thing: turning the ball over. I like the Bengals in a blowout here and you can likely get this game at -3.
    NEW ORLEANS -4.5 at Oakland (-110) 2x
    The New Orleans Saints seem to have hit their stride. They have won 4 of their last 5 with the lone loss coming at Denver (Vegas ranks Denver as the best team in the NFL on a neutral field). Meanwhile, the Raiders have dropped their last 2 games giving up an average of 48.5 points. And I thought the Saints defense was bad. Oakland has struggled since losing Darren McFadden to injury and his backup Mike Goodson is likely out on Sunday as well. This likely means the Raiders won't be able to exploit an awful Saints run defense that allows 162 yards per game on the ground. Oakland will likely put up a lot of points but their one-dimensional offense will result in a few key turnovers and they won't be able to slow down the Saints offense.
    OVER 54 New Orleans at Oakland (-110) 2x
    New Orleans may have the worst defense.....ever. They give up an average of 469 yards per game and, 6.8 yards per play, and over 28 points per game. Oakland's defense has given up 97 points in the past 2 games and are allowing over 31 points per game on the season. Both Carson Palmer and Drew Brees have been on fire this year and I expect a shootout. No chance that Oakland holds this Saints offense under their defensive average of 31 points and slim chance the Raiders won't take advantage of the horrible Saints defense.
    BALTIMORE -2.5 at Pittsburgh (-110) 2x
    Jumped on this play when Big Ben was ruled out. Leftwich hasn't started a game since 2009. I look for the Ravens to stack the box and force Leftwich to beat them. The only way I see the Steelers winning this game is with a few trick plays. They have shown the ability to pull it off in the past but I'm not putting my money on trick plays. Baltimore will score enough points to beat an offense ran by a rusty QB.
    CLEVELAND +8 at Dallas (-110) 2x
    Value play. Cleveland has lost just one road game this season by more than 8 points and that was against the defending Super Bowl Champs. Dallas has only won one home game so far this season and none by more than 8 points. If Haden plays the Browns defense is special. They rank 2nd in yards allowed per play when he is on the field. The Browns have a very talented secondary that should match up well against this Cowboys offense. Tony Romo has really struggled at home this year with 10 INTs in just 3 home games. Weeden has looked impressive for a rookie QB and I think he does enough to keep the game close. Cowboys win but don't cover.


    I am also playing a very tiny parlay on the first 5 games listed

  6. #6
    Lakers714
    Go Big or Go Home!
    Lakers714's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-17-09
    Posts: 4,671
    Betpoints: 3886

    The Packers -3 is probably the squarest play of the year. However, I think you analysis is spot on. Can't over think this one. Yes, they have injuries on the defensive side and the Lions will probably score on them. But like u said, GB coming off a bye with most of their offensive starters and Aaron Rodgers? I'll take my chances. I'm goin big on GB. If they don't cover they don't cover but I'll be content with the play.

  7. #7
    AllLogicBets
    AllLogicBets's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-09-12
    Posts: 140
    Betpoints: 198

    HUGE start to my Sunday! 5-0 through the first 5 games. Would love to cap it off with the Ravens bringing home my parlay tonight as well. Will absolutely be watching that one with interest!

  8. #8
    AllLogicBets
    AllLogicBets's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-09-12
    Posts: 140
    Betpoints: 198

    Games I am already on for week 12:

    SEATTLE -3 at Miami (+105)

    TENNESSEE -3 at Jacksonville (+105)

    HOUSTON -3 at Detroit (-110)

  9. #9
    AllLogicBets
    AllLogicBets's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-09-12
    Posts: 140
    Betpoints: 198

    Ravens just finished my 6-0 day in the NFL and got me the 5 team parlay! Huge day in the NFL.

    On to next week....

  10. #10
    AllLogicBets
    AllLogicBets's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-09-12
    Posts: 140
    Betpoints: 198

    Adding 3 more plays already for week 12 before lines or juice changes:
    PATRIOTS -6 at Jets (-110) 2x
    RAVENS -2 at Chargers (-110) 2x
    UNDER 37.5 Rams at Cardinals (-110) 2x


    Previous picks already in:
    SEATTLE -3 at Miami (+105) 2x
    TENNESSEE -3 at Jacksonville (+105) 2x
    HOUSTON -3 at Detroit (-110) 2x

    I am 41-22 (65%) on the year and 9-3 (75%) since posting on here.
    Last edited by AllLogicBets; 11-19-12 at 01:26 PM. Reason: Adding UNDER play for Rams/Cardinals

  11. #11
    AllLogicBets
    AllLogicBets's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-09-12
    Posts: 140
    Betpoints: 198

    Glad I locked in my lines and juice early this week. Adding one more play for Sunday:

    Buffalo at INDIANAPOLIS -3 (-110) 2x

    Two of my games in play for Thanksgiving:
    Patriots -6
    Houston -3

  12. #12
    AllLogicBets
    AllLogicBets's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-09-12
    Posts: 140
    Betpoints: 198

    Reminder of my plays for today:

    SEATTLE -3 at Miami (+105)
    TENNESSEE -3 at Jacksonville (+105)
    BALTIMORE -3 at San Diego (-110)
    UNDER 37.5 St. Louis at Arizona (-110)
    Buffalo at INDIANAPOLIS -3 (-110)

    I also have 3 legs left to my 5 team parlay (Pats already covered and Houston pushed). Need Seahawks -3, Titans -3, and Ravens -2 to complete all 5 legs.

    Now 42-22-1 (65.63%) YTD and 10-3-1 (76.92%) since posting on here.

  13. #13
    AllLogicBets
    AllLogicBets's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-09-12
    Posts: 140
    Betpoints: 198

    Now 44-25-1 (63.77%) YTD and 12-6-1 (66.67%) since posting on here.

    Week 13 picks:

    TEXANS -6 at Titans (-110) 3u
    BENGALS -1.5 at Chargers (-110) 3u
    SEAHAWKS +3.5 at Bears (-110) 3u
    BROWNS -2.5 at Raiders (-110) 3u
    OVER 39 Browns at Raiders (-110) 3u

  14. #14
    AllLogicBets
    AllLogicBets's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-09-12
    Posts: 140
    Betpoints: 198

    Adding a sixth play for today in the NFL:

    PATRIOTS -7 at Dolphins (-105) 3u

  15. #15
    AllLogicBets
    AllLogicBets's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-09-12
    Posts: 140
    Betpoints: 198

    Texans -6 = WINNER
    Seahawks +3.5 = WINNER
    Patriots -7 = PUSH

    Hopefully my late games don't ruin the good start.

    (and I always parlay my first 5 NFL games every week at a very small amount. That is still alive......)

  16. #16
    AllLogicBets
    AllLogicBets's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-09-12
    Posts: 140
    Betpoints: 198

    Afternoon games are done.....

    Bengals -1.5 = WINNER
    Browns -2.5 = WINNER
    Over 39 Browns at Bengals = LOSER

    Overall went 4-1-1 on the day.

  17. #17
    AllLogicBets
    AllLogicBets's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-09-12
    Posts: 140
    Betpoints: 198

    BEARS -3 at Vikings (+105) 2u
    Cardinals at SEAHAWKS -9.5 (-110) 2u

  18. #18
    AllLogicBets
    AllLogicBets's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-09-12
    Posts: 140
    Betpoints: 198

    Also adding:

    JETS -3 at Jaguars (-110) 2u
    Cowboys at BENGALS -3 (-115) 2u
    OVER 51 Houston at New England (-110) 2u

  19. #19
    AllLogicBets
    AllLogicBets's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-09-12
    Posts: 140
    Betpoints: 198

    3-2 last week and now 51-28-2 (64.56%) YTD.

    Vikings at RAMS -3 (+110) 3u

    PACKERS -3 at Bears (ev) 3u
    BRONCOS -3 at Ravens (-110) 3u
    JAGUARS +7.5 at Dolphins (-110) 3u
    COLTS +10 at Texans (-110) 3u
    OVER 54 Bucs at Saints (-110) 3u

Top