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ALL Tease's NFL Plays... Come get the $$$ !
As many of you know I have been tracking my plays since week 5 and have been pretty succesful. I have started different threads and was PM'ed yesterday and asked if I could send them my plays that I have posted. I went through old threads and found my plays since Week 5, I'll be posting everything here for the rest of the season. Come get the $$$ !!!
Week 5 5-1-0 +8 units
YTD 5-1-0 +8 units
Originally Posted by WHATaTEASE
StL + under cashed last night (+3 units). Here are 3 more wins to end the week.
GB/Ind over 48 (3 units)
There will be a lot of slinging in the dome against two struggling defenses, expect 50+ here. I don't think we'll need to worry about GB holding up here, and Indy is averaging just about 20 ppg at home this season. I think we can expect that to be a little higher here considering just how bad that Packers defense is.
Chi -4.5 (1 unit)
I try not to lay money on chalk behind Jay Cutler unless there's value. That Bears defense is clicking and I don't think Gabbert and the rest of the Jags offense stand much of a chance. Bears D should set them up with very good field position for most of this one. (Jags are 0-2 at home losing by 17 & 20 this year)
Miami/Cincy over 45 (2 units)
Tannehill is building chemistry with Hartline and the rest of this Dolphins offense. Cincy will take its shots thru the air against a defense that is much better against the run than it is against the pass. (Over the last 3 games Miami is averaging 25 ppg and Cincy is averaging 33 ppg.)
Wrapped up NFL weekend with a solid 4-1 ticket (+5 units) Tonights play is NYJ +9 for 3 units
Week 6 3-2-0 +2 units
YTD 8-3-0 +10 units
under 43.5 Pit/Tenn (2 units)
I am a big believer when it comes to following trends. Not one single Thursday night football game has gone over it's projected total and I don't think this one will either. Pitt is averaging about 23 points a game and Tenn is averaging about 17 (this including the shootout they had with Detroit scoring 44). I think the return of Mendenhall will have Pitt getting back to a run heavy style of offense that you saw against Philly. I think this game will have a lot of clock chewing hand offs and FG's from both sides.
Detroit +4 (3 units)
Detroit is coming off a bye week and has been having a pretty disappointing season considering the talent level on that roster. They are up against a very pass heavy offense with Philly, and with their front 4 I believe they will get to Vick early and often. Huge bounce back game for Detroit here. Not only can they keep it close but if they play up to their expectations they have a nice shot at winning this one straight up.
NE -3.5 (4 units)
Say whatever you will, Seattle is tough to play in, teams come out flat when traveling across country, Seattle has a top 10 defense, I don't care. This line should be at least 6.5. Seattle and their rookie QB will not be able to keep up with the style of offense NE has been playing of late. NE has not only shown the ability to get out to a big lead early, but they have shown the ability to explode in second halfs when trailing. I don't see this one being close.
NYJ -3 (2 units)
Everyone saw Indianapolis' great comeback win against the Pack, and everyone knows how badly the jets offense has been playing. That still doesn't hide the fact that the Colts are not a strong team. This team will only go as far as Andrew Luck can take them. And although he is very talented, they have not proven they can win on the road (only road game this year was a 41-21 loss to Chicago). Everyone is handing out moral victories to the Jets for keeping the Houston game close but the pressure is still on the Jets to hang with NE, and the pressure is still on Sanchez if he wants to secure his starting spot. They are in desperate need of a win, and get one here.
over 48 GB/Hou (3 units)
Houston is not a team that throws the ball as much as you would think, however GB can't seem to stop run or pass this year. I believe Houston will have success on the ground with Foster, and Schaub will exploit the defense using play action and all of his receivers. Whatever little run game GB had, left the game on the cart with Cedric Benson. Yes, Alex Green played well, and yes Cobb has speed & upside, but they wont be relying on these guys to win a football game against an undefeated Texans team. The game will be in Rodgers hands and I expect a back and forth scoring fest.
BoL
Week 7 3-3-0 +5 units
YTD 11-6-0 +15 units
Seattle/SF UNDER 38 (4 units)
2 stout defenses up against 2 mediocre quarterbacks, and 2 offenses that rely very heavily on the run. Don't see much scoring in this one. I think this game will turn into a field position battle and scoring chances will be at a minimum. Since Harbaugh has taken over at SF they have lost 5 games. In the games following the previous 4 losses, Harbaugh's 49ers have allowed a TOTAL of 11 points (8,0,3,0). I expect this trend to continue. There has been a lot of talk about how good Seattle's defense is in their own building, when in fact they are just as good on the road this year. In their 3 road games thus far they are allowing a very respectable 17 ppg.
NO -2.5 (3 units)
Before the lines came out I saw TB as a slight favorite in this one. However, there are some factors that lead me to think NO should handle business here by at least a FG. NO is fantastic coming off of a bye week. Here are thier games following a bye the past 4 seasons.
2008-2009 Win & cover NO 37-SD 32 (+3)
2009-2010 Win & cover NO 24-NYJ 10 (-7.5)
2010-2011 Win & cover NO 34-Car 3 (-5.5)
2011-2012 Win & cover NO 26-Atl 23 (+1)
Let's also remember that this New Orleans team has the talent to contend in the NFC, and if they wanna be in the picture come December they need to start winning now. TB does find ways to win or keep games close at home, but with their only 2 wins of the season coming against Carolina and a Brady Quinn lead Chiefs team, I'm not a firm believer.
*NO/TB UNDER 49.5 (1 unit)
These teams face off twice a year and although the total is set at 49.5, there has only been one meeting in their last 10 games that has exceeded 46 total points.
NYJ +10.5 (4 units)
These teams are drastically different from the teams they have been in the past. The defense of the Patriots is as bad as it has ever been, allowing 14 2nd half ppg this season. This has often resulted in not extending leads, letting teams hang around, and in some cases even losing games. The Jets offense has been atrocious. They have proven that when they are up against a top notch defense like SF, Houston, or even Pit, they have trouble moving the ball, cant seem to get the running game going, and simply can't put up enough scoring to keep up (averaged 9 ppg vs these 3 defenses). However when they play a bad defense like Indianapolis, they look like a much more fluent offense. The Jets are confident going into this divisional rivalry and while NE is by far the much better team, they simply cannot cover anyone in the passing game. NE can't make the stops when it matters, which will keep the Jets close towards the end of this game.
Baltimore +6.5 (3 units)
Both Baltimore and Houston have a 5-1 record. But if you take a closer look at the schedule, you'll see Houston has had a much easier road to 5-1. Houston has won games against Tennessee, Jacksonville, Miami, Denver, and the Jets. Although Denver has been picking it up of late, it is safe to say there have really been no tough match ups for Houston. Their toughest test came last week against GB which resulted in a 42-24 beat down. On the flip side, Baltimore has won tough games against Dallas and New England, and lost a 1 point game to a last second score in Philly. Just because Baltimore has been tested more doesn't mean they are a better team than Houston, because they aren't. However, Houston will face its toughest match up on the ground and I think that will make the difference here. I think Baltimore has a good shot to win this game and if Houston does come out on top it will be by a very narrow margin.
Cleve/Indy OVER 46 (2 units)
There will be VERY little defense in this game, combine that with the fact that this game will be played indoors with no weather conditions, I see this game producing many scoring opportunities. Cleveland is allowing a shade over 27 ppg this season, and 32.5 ppg on the road. While Indy is allowing 29.5 ppg, and 23 ppg at home. I believe Trent Richardson and Andrew Luck will have big days against the opposing defenses, and scoring should surpass the expected total of 46.
Week 8 5-1-0 +10 units
YTD 16-7-0 +25 units
I have had some success so far this season starting off hot. Started tracking my plays week 4 and since then I am +15 units. Unfortunately I am stuck at work so I will not have time to do any write ups along with my picks like I usually do, but I will still post my plays with unit amounts.
Miami +1 (3 units)
ATL +2 (2 units)
Carolina +9.5 (3 units)
SD -3 (5 units)
Oak/KC UNDER 42.5 (3 units)
NYG -1 (4 units)
BoL this weekend !
Week 9 5-1-0 +10 units
YTD 21-8-0 +35 units
KC/SD over 42.5 (3 units)
Baltimore -3.5 (2 units)
Carolina +3.5(2 units)
NYG/Pitt under 47.5 (4 units)
ATL -4 (3 units)
Philly/NO over 52 (4 units)
BoL
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