1. 11-01-12 12:47 AM #1
    iifold
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    Chiefs +270...

    If they win the turnover battle, they win...
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  2. 11-01-12 12:52 AM #2
    A4K
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    Quote Originally Posted by iifold View Post
    If they win the turnover battle, they win...
    Really? They had 5 6 turnovers in the first game and are basically a one dimensional team (rushing.) The Chargers suck on offense, but have a stout run defense and will be playing at home. I think you'd be better served taking the +9 points.
    Last edited by A4K; 11-01-12 at 01:03 AM.
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  3. 11-01-12 12:54 AM #3
    okfcfan4life2012
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    Take - points with chargers.
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  4. 11-01-12 01:01 AM #4
    neverstoppers23
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    don't see it. Cheifs are a bad bad team, with some of the lowest class fans. GL, cheifs imo are now playing to win the number 1 draft pick. don't be shocked to see them lose in a blow out.
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  5. 11-01-12 03:22 AM #5
    Lakers714
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    OMFG, are you kidding me? I know the Chargers aren't great either but look at the talent on each team. Plus factor in how hard it is for road teams, especially those who haven't had a lead yet in any game this season, on Thursday night games. The Chargers may or may not cover the spread but they definitely won't lose SU. I'm personally on SD ML for a pretty large amount. Unless this is the week they can't stop the run and Jamal Charles, I don't see how KC can score points on offense. The only chance they have is for their defense to score points off TOs or their special teams to return one. Besides that, outmatched here and the spread is right for a struggling Chargers team.
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  6. 11-01-12 03:24 AM #6
    LT Profits
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    Not a bad play at all but I took +8 -110 instead.
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  7. 11-01-12 03:32 AM #7
    Darkside Magick
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    SD by 10+
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  8. 11-01-12 03:40 AM #8
    Lakers714
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkside Magick View Post
    SD by 10+
    Yeah, if you cap this game, I don't see how you can come up with an angle for KC plus points. Seriously, I agree, SD should take care of business.
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  9. 11-01-12 03:45 AM #9
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lakers714 View Post
    Yeah, if you cap this game, I don't see how you can come up with an angle for KC plus points. Seriously, I agree, SD should take care of business.
    Very easily. Charles will get more than five carries this week (WTF was up with the five carries last week) and as bad as Cassel is, he seems like Joe Montana compared to Quinn. Plus the fact that it almost looks like the Chargers have quit on ole Norv and Rivers threw like a girl last week.
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  10. 11-01-12 03:45 AM #10
    Darkside Magick
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    SD is second in the league opposing the run.....which force KC to pass.......which leads to INT.......you know the rest
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  11. 11-01-12 03:48 AM #11
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkside Magick View Post
    SD is second in the league opposing the run.....which force KC to pass.......which leads to INT.......you know the rest
    They are regressing though, couldn't stop Cleveland run last week while knowing they were going to run.
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  12. 11-01-12 03:48 AM #12
    ChalkyDog
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    Man, this game is so fukking bad.

    The Chiefs would run away with the division if they had a QB. Youngest team in the NFL I think.

    If Chargers can keep Charles to only ~100 yards, then I think it is possible that not even Norv can fukk up a W.
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  13. 11-01-12 03:50 AM #13
    ChalkyDog
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lakers714 View Post
    Yeah, if you cap this game, I don't see how you can come up with an angle for KC plus points. Seriously, I agree, SD should take care of business.
    Hate to agree with you for 2 reasons:

    1) your shit ass avatar
    2) it involves backing San Diego.

    But it is impossible to back KC without any inside knowledge, or some sharp as shit angle.

    The over played stat that KC has never led in a game all season was pretty telling, IMO.

    Got this game capped at SD -11, and I still fail to see value ATS in this game. Gonna pass.
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  14. 11-01-12 03:52 AM #14
    LT Profits
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    Also RLM in an isolated prime time game with 66% of bets on the favorite. Now I get that going from -8 to -7.5 doesn't mean much, but still fishy. And Ganchrow went to -7.
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  15. 11-01-12 03:54 AM #15
    Darkside Magick
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    They are regressing though, couldn't stop Cleveland run last week while knowing they were going to run.
    But you really cant count that game LT...it was sideways rain and crazy wind ..plus CLE was a live dog that game......2 Ints min for KC
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  16. 11-01-12 03:55 AM #16
    ChalkyDog
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Also RLM in an isolated prime time game with 66% of bets on the favorite. Now I get that going from -8 to -7.5 doesn't mean much, but still fishy. And Ganchrow went to -7.
    If your angle is looking at line movement for this game, (something I think very valuable in the Denver game this week), you have to wait right before game time to tell what is really happening here.
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  17. 11-01-12 04:12 AM #17
    ChalkyDog
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    LT, what is your opinion on some of the books, offshore and ashore, hanging 9's? I have a feeling some books are thinking that could be a key number.

    One of the larger line gaps I've seen recently. You can find 2.5 point difference among big books out there.
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  18. 11-01-12 04:17 AM #18
    Darkside Magick
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChalkyDog View Post
    LT, what is your opinion on some of the books, offshore and ashore, hanging 9's? I have a feeling some books are thinking that could be a key number.


    One of the larger line gaps I've seen recently. You can find 2.5 point difference among big books out there.
    They did this with SF/ARI....setting up these different lines to get Arizona money......we know how that ended....
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  19. 11-01-12 04:48 AM #19
    BabyMatrix27
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    Chargers -4.5 1st Half is your best bet!!! Chargers have outscored Kansas City last 3 meetings in SD by 59-7 in the 1st HALF!!!
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  20. 11-01-12 04:48 AM #20
    BabyMatrix27
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    Quote Originally Posted by BabyMatrix27 View Post
    Chargers -4.5 1st Half is your best bet!!! Chargers have outscored Kansas City last 3 meetings in SD by 59-7!
    59-7 in the 1st Half!
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  21. 11-01-12 05:54 AM #21
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChalkyDog View Post
    LT, what is your opinion on some of the books, offshore and ashore, hanging 9's? I have a feeling some books are thinking that could be a key number.

    One of the larger line gaps I've seen recently. You can find 2.5 point difference among big books out there.
    Those are just teaser-protection lines. -9 +120 is the same thing as -7.5 -110
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  22. 11-01-12 05:57 AM #22
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkside Magick View Post
    They did this with SF/ARI....setting up these different lines to get Arizona money......we know how that ended....
    Pinny and 5 Dimes do it all the time. You rarely see lines between 1.5-2.5 or 7.5-8.5 there, they almost always shade them.
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  23. 11-01-12 07:46 AM #23
    Darkside Magick
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    Quote Originally Posted by BabyMatrix27 View Post
    Chargers -4.5 1st Half is your best bet!!! Chargers have outscored Kansas City last 3 meetings in SD by 59-7 in the 1st HALF!!!

    Hmmmmmm.......may take a stab at this
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  24. 11-01-12 08:08 AM #24
    JMobile
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    It's officially November and Chargers tend to win more from this month and on.








    Shouldn't they?
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  25. 11-01-12 08:14 AM #25
    bobbyk1133
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    Quote Originally Posted by iifold View Post
    If they win the turnover battle, they win...
    That's one big ass "if". When a team turns the ball over at the rate KC is it's no longer negative variance.

    This line is hella inflated tho. Chargers are not good at all.

    KC also have the worst coach in the NFL - bar none. Constantly punting and rushing in the most absurd situations.

    Pass.
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  26. 11-01-12 08:22 AM #26
    Darkside Magick
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    line should be 11.....so i dont see inflation....kc backers hoping for no turnovers and running the ball without fumbles and a QB with no INT....whatever line you got -7,-7.5 should float! ...plus there is rumors if SD dont win he will be let go...enough for norv to open up the playbook for +10 DECISION
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  27. 11-01-12 08:33 AM #27
    heywally
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    One thing I would discount is that the Chargers usually start winning in the 2nd half of the seasons in past years.

    They are embattled right now, their QB has lost confidence and they are down to 3 WR's, (though Meachem could play but so what?) two of whom they signed within the last two weeks. Gates is triple-teamed. A symptom of the problem with the offense is that AJ Smith, the Charger's GM, did two 'big' WR signings in the off-season -- Meachem and Royal -- and those two have either been injured or the Chargers haven't figured out a way to get the ball to them when they've played.

    The Charger's offense has to (though it is Norv) focus on the run and quick passes in this game because they have a decent running game, they don't want to throw intercepts, they have minimal WR's. K.C.'s D is not bad.

    If someone was leaning to taking S.D. and giving up the points, the 1st half idea is probably the way to go as even when they have a lead, S.D. does not have the offense to pull away and win by a lot.

    Very hard to take K.C. money line here though, just on their coaching situation alone but .... they probably are a decent pick with the teaser points - +14 or so.
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  28. 11-01-12 10:02 AM #28
    dodger33
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Very easily. Charles will get more than five carries this week (WTF was up with the five carries last week) and as bad as Cassel is, he seems like Joe Montana compared to Quinn. Plus the fact that it almost looks like the Chargers have quit on ole Norv and Rivers threw like a girl last week.
    All the same arguments my SD friends made haha. Cassel has been playing all year and hasn't accomplished anything, why would he all of the sudden be competent for tonights game? Rivers has always throw like a girl (though it does seem to be getting worse or so i think) i remember last year i was thinking he looked hurt but honestly its just his girly throwing motion. And as far as trying to get rid of Norv you could have made that argument every game for the last 3 years.
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  29. 11-01-12 10:25 AM #29
    vaas187
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChalkyDog View Post
    Man, this game is so fukking bad.

    The Chiefs would run away with the division if they had a QB. Youngest team in the NFL I think.

    If Chargers can keep Charles to only ~100 yards, then I think it is possible that not even Norv can fukk up a W.
    same. addicted to money so still finding my angle but this is probably the worst thursday game on the board all year
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  30. 11-01-12 10:29 AM #30
    ohdawerz
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    Kc +9/o42.5
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  31. 11-01-12 10:43 AM #31
    DudleyDawson
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    Everyone of these Thursday night games seem to have been close or the dog win out-right...KC is the play, imo...the fact the Chiefs aren't -9.5 or more is very telling.
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  32. 11-01-12 11:12 AM #32
    colts
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    I don't know how KC is a live ml dog. They haven't shown us anything. SD/Cleveland is a much tougher matchup for SD. They were on the road and Cleveland is playing better than KC. KC has numerous injuries, no cohesiveness, and is on the road. Are the Chargers good?...no. Will they win?...most likely. Will they cover?...maybe. This is the worst division in the NFL and this game is a good no play. Maybe take the chargers 1st half as suggested. Or maybe tease the chargers to the under (-1 & 48.5).
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  33. 11-01-12 11:12 AM #33
    ttrace35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkside Magick View Post
    line should be 11.....so i dont see inflation....kc backers hoping for no turnovers and running the ball without fumbles and a QB with no INT....whatever line you got -7,-7.5 should float! ...plus there is rumors if SD dont win he will be let go...enough for norv to open up the playbook for +10 DECISION
    A lot of times this backfires and the coach plays the game scared, close to the vest.
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  34. 11-01-12 11:15 AM #34
    k13
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    Line is inflated because Chiefs are most likely tanking for the #1 pick.

    Lot of questionable moves, play calls, etc. Listen to the answers why Charles only got 5 carries. Lot of fishy stuff.

    Bowe u 5 rec is +145, so books somehow think he'll be back to getting a lot of targets/catches, we shall see.
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  35. 11-01-12 11:18 AM #35
    lakerboy
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    Chargers tt under 26 os my play.
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