[Lucas]

SIA always has inflated lines. (scalper heaven), I trust pinny's lines over SIA any day. I really think SIA banked on New England tonight shading the line against them for scalpers. Sia made a killing tonight.

I am sorry I do not understand you. As you say SIA has inflated lines... so where public has action they have inflated lines... so if there is -2.5 and at Pinny is -1, public is betting on this event. This was NE case.

Congrats to your bet.

[bigboydan]

what an ugly game this one was.

congrats to the Pats backers tonight

[hanco21]

I am sorry I do not understand you. As you say SIA has inflated lines... so where public has action they have inflated lines... so if there is -2.5 and at Pinny is -1, public is betting on this event. This was NE case.

Congrats to your bet.

Anyone who knows SIA they always shade their lines. Ask anyone you could scalp their lines all day long.

[isetcap]

Great call tonight, hanco.

[Lucas]

Anyone who knows SIA they always shade their lines. Ask anyone you could scalp their lines all day long.

Really?
The reason why I mentioned SIA and their HCP was the proof where public is betting. You told public is on Minnesota - I disagreed. Nothing more, nothing less.

[Jay Edgar]

Minnesota played their best game of the season last week and they won a game unexpectedly.

I think this angle is vastly underrated. Teams coming off their best performance of the year -- especially a big upset win -- seem to stumble next time out. This week those teams were HOU, MIN, and the Saints sort-of.

I'm going to start to sound like a broken record, but I'd much rather handicap based on what the actual teams have done than on some cloudy idea of what the "sharps" and "public" are supposedly doing and what the books are "begging" or "trapping" me into doing. That latter method is just a lazy man's way of getting lots of action bets into play in a way that makes him sound smart to himself. In my opinion.

[mad]

I'm going to start to sound like a broken record, but I'd much rather handicap based on what the actual teams have done than on some cloudy idea of what the "sharps" and "public" are supposedly doing and what the books are "begging" or "trapping" me into doing. That latter method is just a lazy man's way of getting lots of action bets into play in a way that makes him sound smart to himself. In my opinion.

Agreed.

[hanco21]

I think this angle is vastly underrated. Teams coming off their best performance of the year -- especially a big upset win -- seem to stumble next time out. This week those teams were HOU, MIN, and the Saints sort-of.

I'm going to start to sound like a broken record, but I'd much rather handicap based on what the actual teams have done than on some cloudy idea of what the "sharps" and "public" are supposedly doing and what the books are "begging" or "trapping" me into doing. That latter method is just a lazy man's way of getting lots of action bets into play in a way that makes him sound smart to himself. In my opinion.

Dallas was another great example this week. Coming off their worst loss of the year last week to easily handle the Panthers as a 4.5 dog. Anyways congrats to all who cashed tonight. Easy Money!!!!

Take care

[Jay Edgar]

Dallas was another great example this week. Coming off their worst loss of the year last week to easily handle the Panthers as a 4.5 dog.

Yup, the flip side of it. Don't forget the Jags in that category.

[hanco21]

Yup, the flip side of it. Don't forget the Jags in that category.

Had them both in my Beat the prick picks, Dallas as my top choice.

[isetcap]

I think this angle is vastly underrated. Teams coming off their best performance of the year -- especially a big upset win -- seem to stumble next time out. This week those teams were HOU, MIN, and the Saints sort-of.

I'm going to start to sound like a broken record, but I'd much rather handicap based on what the actual teams have done than on some cloudy idea of what the "sharps" and "public" are supposedly doing and what the books are "begging" or "trapping" me into doing. That latter method is just a lazy man's way of getting lots of action bets into play in a way that makes him sound smart to himself. In my opinion.

Beautifully stated, Jay. That's why people who tout one side of a line by denouncing the other side as a "sucker bet" are generally amateurish wannabe forum sharps who simply haven't taken the time to perform a real evaluation.

I haven't checked into the basketball forum yet this year, but I sincerely hope you will be putting together your Jay Edgar Line for us once again. I used it somewhat successfully last season and I'm looking forward to the nightly NBA action.

[isetcap]

That means people should be real careful with this week's Dallas/Washington contest.

[jjgold]

Brady was just too good, had nothing to do with capping last night. It is all Tom Brady, guy is one of top 5 all time greats and can win with any team.

[Jay Edgar]

Brady was just too good, had nothing to do with capping last night.

JJ, generally agree that it had everything to do with Brady and Bellichek. The talent on those teams and staffs seems pretty equal otherwise, except for those two masters.

Obviously they looked at Minny on film, and they decided not to get stuffed on 7-10 rushes and then abandon the run in the second quarter. Instead, they abandoned the run before the game began. That's so unconventional it took Minny totally by surprise on the first drive, after which the crowd is subdued and Minny has to play from behind -- which, frankly, they can't. Then NE got a little luck with the Harrison pick (helped by defensive holding), and game over.

Isetcap, thanks for the nice words. My NBA stuff should have a couple extra bugs worked out this year -- and it'll be there for everybody.

[pags11]

Brady is damn good...