1. 10-29-12 02:18 PM #1
    theAkathist
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    Alex Smith completions o18 +105 (read this)

    smith is averaging 18.4 completions per-game so far this season. but that stat is a little misleading as he only attempted an average of 22 throws in the 2 game beatdowns of the jets and bills by a combined score of 79-3

    expect a tighter game tonight and for alex to throw the ball over 30 times. what has arizona defense done vs the 49ers offense in the past?

    they make smith beat them thru the air by putting 8 in the box and single coverage on the recievers. smith was forced to pass averaging 37.5 attempts in the 2 games last year vs arizona.

    will arizona keep the same strategy?

    yes they will they went 1-1 vs the 49ers last year and expect the same type game with smith throwing the ball 35+ times tonight

    prediction: A.Smith 20-34 224 yds 1 td 1 Int

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  2. 10-29-12 02:48 PM #2
    suicidekings
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    Except the Arizona secondary continues to be solid, and the Cardinals D has the best Sack Rate in the NFL, while SF ranks 29th in pass protection. On the ground, Arizona has allowed 165 yards rushing in each of the last two games against teams that feature dominant power RBs, so what makes you think it will be a priority for Alex Smith to be throwing into strong coverage instead of allowing Frank Gore to pound the ball up the middle all game?

    I think you're over-estimating Arizona's ability to stop SF on the ground and under-estimating the pressure Smith will be under if he sits in the pocket and waits for his receivers to get clear.
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  3. 10-29-12 03:26 PM #3
    Dom177
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    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    I think you're over-estimating Arizona's ability to stop SF on the ground and under-estimating the pressure Smith will be under if he sits in the pocket and waits for his receivers to get clear.
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  4. 10-29-12 03:32 PM #4
    iifold
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    What happens if Arizona throws a pick-6 on their first drive?
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  5. 10-29-12 03:35 PM #5
    theAkathist
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    Quote Originally Posted by iifold View Post
    What happens if Arizona throws a pick-6 on their first drive?
    iifold thats kind of random lol...........i still think even if 49ers lead all game arizona still makes them pass the rock. averaging 37.5 attempts pergame the last 2 games vs arizona i dare anyone to take u18 here
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  6. 10-29-12 03:37 PM #6
    suicidekings
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    Quote Originally Posted by theAkathist View Post
    iifold thats kind of random lol...........i still think even if 49ers lead all game arizona still makes them pass the rock. averaging 37.5 attempts pergame the last 2 games vs arizona i dare anyone to take u18 here
    I'm not saying the Under is a good bet. I'm saying the Over is a bad bet.
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  7. 10-29-12 03:39 PM #7
    theAkathist
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    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    I'm not saying the Under is a good bet. I'm saying the Over is a bad bet.
    the over isnt a bad bet kings. its not a lock by any means they could plug in kaepernick for 2 series but i would never in a million years take the u18 tonight, no way i wouldnt even take u21.5
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  8. 10-29-12 03:44 PM #8
    suicidekings
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    Quote Originally Posted by theAkathist View Post
    the over isnt a bad bet kings. its not a lock by any means they could plug in kaepernick for 2 series but i would never in a million years take the u18 tonight, no way i wouldnt even take u21.5
    I have no stake in it either way. Good luck if you decide to stick with it.
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  9. 10-29-12 04:01 PM #9
    ChalkyDog
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    This isn't a shot at the OP, but I have been wildly successful fading PT Prop plays.

    This might be another one to consider.
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  10. 10-29-12 07:13 PM #10
    theAkathist
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    here we go this is gonna hit !!!!!!!!!
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  11. 10-29-12 07:19 PM #11
    tto827
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    Smith completed 20 passes in the win over AZ last year, and 18 in the loss. They seem more likely to trust him this year, so if anything I'd favor the over, seeing as its plus money, I'm gonna ride with ya
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  12. 10-29-12 07:20 PM #12
    theAkathist
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    Quote Originally Posted by tto827 View Post
    Smith completed 20 passes in the win over AZ last year, and 18 in the loss. They seem more likely to trust him this year, so if anything I'd favor the over, seeing as its plus money, I'm gonna ride with ya
    ya tto come on board i need this win baby!!!!!!!!!!

    remember arizona makes smith throw it lets hope for 10 completions by halftime
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  13. 10-29-12 07:23 PM #13
    cankid
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    Ill put a small amount on it, i dont think Skelton can move the ball consistently so San Fran should have the ball much more
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  14. 10-29-12 07:24 PM #14
    Dfjay9
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    17.
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  15. 10-29-12 07:26 PM #15
    Chi_archie
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    I like it! Good luck
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  16. 10-29-12 07:27 PM #16
    Blannewk
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    Loaded up! Lets do this!!
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  17. 10-29-12 07:30 PM #17
    theAkathist
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    Quote Originally Posted by cankid View Post
    Ill put a small amount on it, i dont think Skelton can move the ball consistently so San Fran should have the ball much more
    yeah that was part of my thinking as well
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  18. 10-29-12 07:43 PM #18
    tto827
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    Well, first completion wiped off the board due to a penalty, he may not have caught it but I don't care.
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  19. 10-29-12 08:02 PM #19
    iifold
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    4-4...

    looking good...
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  20. 10-29-12 08:09 PM #20
    theAkathist
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    now 6/6 thus far but to tell you the truth i figured they would throw it more

    good thing is thought he will spray passes to the backs even if SF leads 21-0

    anyways, down to 12 more completions!!
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  21. 10-29-12 08:53 PM #21
    Azshadios
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    hes already at 14
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  22. 10-29-12 09:05 PM #22
    theAkathist
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    yep 14 at halftime looks pretty good. hopefully they dont go 3-and-out a bunch of times in the 2nd half. otherwise he should attempt a bunch of safe throws just to keep the cards respecting the run

    First half

    A.Smith 14/15 146 yds 2 Td 0 InT

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  23. 10-29-12 09:07 PM #23
    DudleyDawson
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    Seen BI had Smith over 1.5 td's at +145....fukkkkkkkkkkk. Knew it.
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  24. 10-29-12 09:09 PM #24
    Rich Boy
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    This bet is still in jeopardy

    Niners with a healthy lead will look to run the ball. Wont be surprised for Smith to go without a completion in the entire 4th qtr
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  25. 10-29-12 09:10 PM #25
    boeing power
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    Quote Originally Posted by theAkathist View Post
    yep 14 at halftime looks pretty good. hopefully they dont go 3-and-out a bunch of times in the 2nd half. otherwise he should attempt a bunch of safe throws just to keep the cards respecting the run

    First half

    A.Smith 14/15 146 yds 2 Td 0 InT

    Edit
    Last edited by boeing power; 10-29-12 at 09:16 PM.
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  26. 10-29-12 09:10 PM #26
    tto827
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    Quote Originally Posted by DudleyDawson View Post
    Seen BI had Smith over 1.5 td's at +145....fukkkkkkkkkkk. Knew it.
    DSI had it at +180 I was about to pull the trigger also.
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  27. 10-29-12 09:11 PM #27
    Azshadios
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    lol he will have the total of at least 22
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  28. 10-29-12 09:14 PM #28
    boeing power
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    Quote Originally Posted by boeing power View Post
    I hope you nail it but I wouldn't be excited at this point.

    17 point lead means they will be running the ball second half.
    Sorry ,

    I read it wrong,

    You're golden
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  29. 10-29-12 09:26 PM #29
    Rich Boy
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    Ok you got it.
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  30. 10-29-12 09:29 PM #30
    theAkathist
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    i hope cardinals score some points lol. i doubt at 24-0 we would see kaepernick cause that would be a slap in the face to arizona and i dont think harbaugh would do that. but i can see smith attempting like 3-4 more passes all game. could be close
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  31. 10-29-12 09:30 PM #31
    Rich Boy
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    Still way too much time to bench Smith

    Will prob see a few more pass attempts. With this garbage defense you should get this
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  32. 10-29-12 09:49 PM #32
    tto827
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    Did we just at least get the push, or is that going to be considered a lateral, hopefully we get it by more than one cause I see that last one being changed later no matter how its ruled.
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  33. 10-29-12 09:55 PM #33
    Rich Boy
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    This is looking like a screwjob in the making here

    Doubt SF throws it again in this game...
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  34. 10-29-12 09:58 PM #34
    Frisco
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    This is exactly why i avoided this prop. Just have no idea how many throws Smith will have
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  35. 10-29-12 09:59 PM #35
    tto827
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Boy View Post
    This is looking like a screwjob in the making here

    Doubt SF throws it again in this game...
    At least they seem like they will throw on 3rd down, I'd be quite pleased to get the push even with 14 at the half at this point.
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