1. #36
    CallMeChip
    Damn good stuff, sir...
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    I don't see this as bait, people may take a cue from the browns/chargers win, but Broncos O is starting to get comfortable. I see a game not unlike tonight with the Niners. Broncos by at least 6.
    Last edited by CallMeChip; 10-30-12 at 06:01 AM.

  2. #37
    wtt0315
    This is the Broncos Year.
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    Nothing to do with being square.. Broncos are best team in afc. Manning is getting stronger each week and team is finally gelling. They have had toughest schedule in nfl. They will probably not lose another game. Cinn is overrated and not very good. This line should be -9. You should nail this game now as the line will move. Sometimes a what looks like a turkey really is a turkey. In the past you never see manning led teams with let downs. Denver needs these games to pad that lead over sd

  3. #38
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by wtt0315 View Post
    Broncos are best team in afc. They will probably not lose another game.


    At least be realistic when being a homer.

  4. #39
    GunShard
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    Texans are the best AFC team. Broncos should be in the Top 5.

  5. #40
    uvajrl
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post


    At least be realistic when being a homer.
    Maybe not the best in AFC, but if you look at their schedule, easily the easiest remaining schedule of any nfl team. They may not lose another game

  6. #41
    wtt0315
    This is the Broncos Year.
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    Even homers are realistic sometimes
    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post


    At least be realistic when being a homer.

  7. #42
    PAULYPOKER
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    Cincin coming off bye

    +

    Desperate

    +

    Attractive Denver line

    =

    Bengals +160 ML a Wnna chicka dinna!!

  8. #43
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by uvajrl View Post
    Maybe not the best in AFC, but if you look at their schedule, easily the easiest remaining schedule of any nfl team. They may not lose another game
    This is the NFL, 3 losses at least to come.

  9. #44
    bobbyk1133
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    A square is someone who takes the Broncos -3.5, not -3. Understand the difference?

  10. #45
    OTL
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    Cinci bites and isn't going to make the playoffs like they did last year. I don't see any value on them here.

  11. #46
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by bobbyk1133 View Post
    A square is someone who takes the Broncos -3.5, not -3. Understand the difference?
    So if the line drops to -2.5 by game time, is that -3 person a square too?

    I was going by the broad definition.
    Square plays win too, mostly when sharps are on the same play and move the line.

    btw, the line opened -3.5, 3 was mostly juiced and available for a very short time.
    Last edited by k13; 10-31-12 at 09:42 PM.

  12. #47
    teecee
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    I have denver winning by 5.

  13. #48
    bobbyk1133
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    So if the line drops to -2.5 by game time, is that -3 person a square too?

    I was going by the broad definition.
    Square plays win too, mostly when sharps are on the same play and move the line.

    btw, the line opened -3.5, 3 was mostly juiced and available for a very short time.
    The line opened -3.25 so you pretty much had your choice which way to bet. And it takes a lot to move a line off the 3 at regular juice...so if a person got stuck with -3 and it moved to -2.5 yes you're stuck on the square side.

    My question is what makes Denver a "square" play anyways? Because they won on prime-time, that they're the favorite, or Peyton Manning?


  14. #49
    scarp
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    Liking broncos on this one. They will get better each week. Pretty good for a new qb and surgery

  15. #50
    Darkside Magick
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    Broncos by 10+

  16. #51
    ChalkyDog
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    Quote Originally Posted by bobbyk1133 View Post
    The line opened -3.25 so you pretty much had your choice which way to bet. And it takes a lot to move a line off the 3 at regular juice...so if a person got stuck with -3 and it moved to -2.5 yes you're stuck on the square side.

    My question is what makes Denver a "square" play anyways? Because they won on prime-time, that they're the favorite, or Peyton Manning?

    Square play, for me, can be defined as overwhelming public support. The reason that works is because if you are picking a play that 75% of the public is also on - it isn't exactly "sharp" per se, as the majority of players - regardless of their sharpness or squareness are picking the same play.

    It also allows for some obvious division of the two - because without question, a person betting on a 75% public backed team that wins will call it a "sharp" play.

    In the same light, a square play is obviously one that is backed by the public at at least 75%.

    That's the way I look at it at least.

    That is distinguishing, for me, sharp v. square play.

    Sharp v. square player is a different discussion.

  17. #52
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by bobbyk1133 View Post
    My question is what makes Denver a "square" play anyways? Because they won on prime-time, that they're the favorite, or Peyton Manning?

    It only means majority of the population will think Denver wins this game.

    Nothing to do with the actual "play". That's still uncertain.

    The line was a pk'em a few weeks ago so -3 is already inflated and squarish. You can play that numbers game all day.
    No one is predicting every line movement and getting the best line every time.
    Spread won't matter anyway.

  18. #53
    bobbyk1133
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    The line was a pk'em a few weeks ago so -3 is already inflated and squarish. You can play that numbers game all day.
    Pk'em? It's a little unfair to be using preseason spreads in week 9. Last week it was -4 at Cantor in the updated look ahead line. Broncos supporters earned a full point of value based on week 8 games. You think it was the jolly square public who moved it off the -3 this week?

  19. #54
    Dirty Bay Player
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    The only decent team that Cincy's beaten is Washington. I'm on Denver ML -190 large.

  20. #55
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by bobbyk1133 View Post
    Pk'em? It's a little unfair to be using preseason spreads in week 9. Last week it was -4 at Cantor in the updated look ahead line. Broncos supporters earned a full point of value based on week 8 games. You think it was the jolly square public who moved it off the -3 this week?
    It opened at -3.5 (plus money) at Pinnacle, bet down to -3, back to -3.5(-106).

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/sportsbook...9-a.html?slf=2

    It depends if you believe any of this stuff but listen to what the DSI guy has to say about the Denver/Cincy game.

  21. #56
    k13
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    bobby, I fail to see why you don't think there could be decent amount of sharp money on the Bengals?


    You think sharps are on Houston this week?


    Do only sharps move lines?

  22. #57
    bobbyk1133
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    It opened at -3.5 (plus money) at Pinnacle, bet down to -3, back to -3.5(-106).

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/sportsbook...9-a.html?slf=2

    It depends if you believe any of this stuff but listen to what the DSI guy has to say about the Denver/Cincy game.
    All I have to say about that DSI guy is get real. Public money is utterly irrelevant until Sat/Sun. If sharps loved Cincy in this spot the hook wouldn't be sitting there available all week. Like you said, -3 wasn't available long...why? We're talkin' about the biggest key number. When a line opens on/off 3 with extra juice the early money is generally going to determine which side has value.

  23. #58
    bobbyk1133
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    You think sharps are on Houston this week?

    Do only sharps move lines?
    Vast majority of line movement is dictated by smart money yes. You disagree?

    As for Houston, I don't think sharps would want anything to do with the Bills. Fading the Texans isn't a long-term profitable venture...

  24. #59
    WHATaTEASE
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    No one needs to win any badder than someone else.
    Not true. You're going to tell me that the Saints who are in 3rd place in their division with a closing playoff window don't need to win more this week than Houston, who is on a fast track to winning the division and the conference?

  25. #60
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by bobbyk1133 View Post
    Vast majority of line movement is dictated by smart money yes. You disagree?

    As for Houston, I don't think sharps would want anything to do with the Bills. Fading the Texans isn't a long-term profitable venture...
    I don't disagree. Except for fake line moves.

    Remember How I liked Denver at home vs Houston. They lost. Now people think Denver is good.
    Don't you think that line would be different now? A lot more people on Denver than before?
    Nothing really changed about the teams except perception.

    Underrated teams become overrated teams rather quickly. Ex. Vikings.


    So who moved this line from -12 to -10, +420 to +380? Were those squares jumping on the Bills? lol

    I have Chargers/Packers/Texans ml parlays all over the place and Houston worries me the most here.....Yes Bills suck but...

  26. #61
    bobbyk1133
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    I don't disagree. Except for fake line moves.

    Remember How I liked Denver at home vs Houston. They lost. Now people think Denver is good.
    Don't you think that line would be different now? A lot more people on Denver than before?
    Nothing really changed about the teams except perception.

    Underrated teams become overrated teams rather quickly. Ex. Vikings.


    So who moved this line from -12 to -10, +420 to +380? Were those squares jumping on the Bills? lol

    I have Chargers/Packers/Texans ml parlays all over the place and Houston worries me the most here.....Yes Bills suck but...
    I understand the point, but don't really agree about Denver/Houston. Losing Cushing was probably the worst possible player to lose on that defense. Also, Peyton has consistently gotten better. It was going to take time for them to gel and get in sync. Broncos continue to rise the stat charts.

    For the Bills game, the look ahead was -9.5...opened in -11 range. Settled on -10. Doesn't really say much since it didn't cross the 10. It's the same number I got so I can't imagine a big move on the Bills, but we'll see what it closes at.

  27. #62
    k13
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    5dimes most favorite super match up is Texans vs Niners +1250

    Kind of surprising.

  28. #63
    Mr Handicapable
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    Indy Peyton now Denver fan so I watch every one of their games. They've made some key def. changes that aren't being noticed yet. Joe Mays/Tracy Porter out......Chris Harris (good young corner), Keith Brookings, and Jim Leonhard in. Both Brookings and Leonhard provide big game veteran experience. They made these changes after the Pats game since then they've held SD to 7 legit points and New Orleans to 14.

    TE Virgil Green (3 catches for 44 yards...one for 28) also just got back from a 6 game suspension....give PM another 6'5 250+ target...plus their only real blocking TE. Marvin Lewis is drawing a line in the sand but this Bengals team doesn't have enough firepower to hang around

    Denver -3 paying the juice

  29. #64
    martino maserati
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    Lol at people betting against Manning in this shit show

  30. #65
    BennyFang
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    I mentioned this in another thread but I would have to think that home dogs after a bye week have to be a good opportunity. NFL is all about parity, never more so than this year. I would like to see an ATS record in the above situation.

  31. #66
    bobbyk1133
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Handicapable View Post
    Indy Peyton now Denver fan so I watch every one of their games. They've made some key def. changes that aren't being noticed yet. Joe Mays/Tracy Porter out......Chris Harris (good young corner), Keith Brookings, and Jim Leonhard in. Both Brookings and Leonhard provide big game veteran experience. They made these changes after the Pats game since then they've held SD to 7 legit points and New Orleans to 14.

    TE Virgil Green (3 catches for 44 yards...one for 28) also just got back from a 6 game suspension....give PM another 6'5 250+ target...plus their only real blocking TE. Marvin Lewis is drawing a line in the sand but this Bengals team doesn't have enough firepower to hang around

    Denver -3 paying the juice
    There's also talk that Woodyard is going to keep a lot of his reps even after DJ comes back from suspension.

    For me Broncos -3 is a clear option here. Let's consider who they lost to early in the year...Texans and Patriots/Falcons on the road. Bengals have a HORRIBLE record ATS vs playoff teams going back to last year. Not surprised at all the line moved to -4....

  32. #67
    MJT1212
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    a dream b/c squares will win...

    denver all day

  33. #68
    Goat Milk
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    Bengals win straight up.

  34. #69
    bleek88
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    Quote Originally Posted by Goat Milk View Post
    Bengals win straight up.

  35. #70
    Deol
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    CIN+3.5 seems much more likely than DEN-3.5 IMO.

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