1. #1
    JuniorAnalyst
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    Value bet on Steelers to win Super Bowl

    Super Bowl +2500
    Conference +1000
    Division +175

    Now hang in there lets look at this from the bottom up

    Division?
    Steelers
    Ravens
    Bengals
    Browns

    The Ravens currently hold first place but there defense has taken a big step back from recent seasons. No matter how good flacco plays he wont do two things.

    -He wont win either game against the Steelers
    -He wont be able to score enough points without giving in to the pressure and throwing Interceptions

    Bengals are still learning to work with Andy Dalton and wont win the division
    Browns... Due to the start they had they cant come close to winning the division

    Now even if the Ravens won the AFC has had a horrible season combined there are very few teams to break away from .500 and the only teams that have a chance at playoffs are as follows
    Division Winners New England-Houston-Denver-Pittsburgh / Wild Card teams NY Jets San Diego Ravens
    Of these teams Pittsburgh will beat any of these wild cards teams and can beat the Patriots.

    The only challenge i see in post season is the Revamped Broncos and the Texans

    If they play there hedging opportunities and at +1000 and +2500 there is tons of value

    Im putting down $50 on each of these as there are tons of opportunities to hedge or if they can get healthy and Big Ben can get back to his Elite ways I can leave the 2012-13 season up a winner

  2. #2
    Bigh2001
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    Only value is on the division. No chance on the other two. Half the team is already collecting Social Security.

    Quote Originally Posted by JuniorAnalyst View Post
    Super Bowl +2500
    Conference +1000
    Division +175

    Now hang in there lets look at this from the bottom up

    Division?
    Steelers
    Ravens
    Bengals
    Browns

    The Ravens currently hold first place but there defense has taken a big step back from recent seasons. No matter how good flacco plays he wont do two things.

    -He wont win either game against the Steelers
    -He wont be able to score enough points without giving in to the pressure and throwing Interceptions

    Bengals are still learning to work with Andy Dalton and wont win the division
    Browns... Due to the start they had they cant come close to winning the division

    Now even if the Ravens won the AFC has had a horrible season combined there are very few teams to break away from .500 and the only teams that have a chance at playoffs are as follows
    Division Winners New England-Houston-Denver-Pittsburgh / Wild Card teams NY Jets San Diego Ravens
    Of these teams Pittsburgh will beat any of these wild cards teams and can beat the Patriots.

    The only challenge i see in post season is the Revamped Broncos and the Texans

    If they play there hedging opportunities and at +1000 and +2500 there is tons of value

    Im putting down $50 on each of these as there are tons of opportunities to hedge or if they can get healthy and Big Ben can get back to his Elite ways I can leave the 2012-13 season up a winner

  3. #3
    JuniorAnalyst
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    Ok if your confident in them winning the division then that means playoffs.

    Bet $100 to win $1100

    If they play game 1 against a weak team at home let it ride. if not then lets say
    Pittsburgh @ Houston -4.5
    (+180) (-220)
    bet $220 to win $100 to win your money back

    If houston wins you break even
    If Pittsburgh wins now your bet is
    $330 to win $1100

    then the next game let say is against Denver -250
    Now decide do you like Denver or Pitssburgh
    If you like Denver you got a free bet of $770 you can put on them
    If you like pittsburgh bet $500 to win $200 on Denver

    If Denver wins you got out with $200 a $100 profit
    If Steelers win then you bet $830 to win $1100 a $270 profit

    Of course there is different situations and whatever but if you believe in Pittsburgh then obviously your more comfortable
    If you bet the division at +175 then thats
    $100 to win $175
    in this very possible scenario you get
    $100 to win $270
    and your safe if pittsburgh loses the division cause they can still get the wildcard

    Around playoff time the steelers could get a lot healthier and with some good games coming up can have a lot of momentum heading in to post season. I see value

  4. #4
    slacker00
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    Quote Originally Posted by JuniorAnalyst View Post
    Im putting down $50 on each of these as there are tons of opportunities to hedge...
    This is a red flag. You haven't even made the bet and you are already hedging? If you like the bet, don't bet against it!

    SB +2500 is the only one I'd take and for the minimum. The rest just don't have enough value.

  5. #5
    JuniorAnalyst
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    Thats how you bet futures dude you dont pick your fav week 1 and hope they win it all. you seek value and when playoffs come if you are uncertain you hedge. I have no plans to the only games i see pittsburgh losing in are road games vs Houston or Denver in AFC Finals that is when you hedge but leave room to make a profit

  6. #6
    pensfan1919
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    I think 10-1 for AFC has value. AFC is wide open and if they get hot and healthy in December they can win the AFC.

  7. #7
    slacker00
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    Quote Originally Posted by JuniorAnalyst View Post
    Thats how you bet futures dude you dont pick your fav week 1 and hope they win it all. you seek value and when playoffs come if you are uncertain you hedge. I have no plans to the only games i see pittsburgh losing in are road games vs Houston or Denver in AFC Finals that is when you hedge but leave room to make a profit
    Ok, well that's not really hedging, if you like Pitts future bets but bet against them in specific non-future related spots.

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