Trying to figure out my pick for tomorrow nights game. Lost a bit last night in the Ark St game. Looking to rebound tomorrow night with a 6pt teaser. Thoughts on TAMPA +13 and over 36pts?
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10-24-12 09:13 PM #1
Bucs @ Vikings thursday night game
Last edited by Sir_Don_Yeggins; 10-24-12 at 09:22 PM.
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10-24-12 09:24 PM #2
If you ever lose a teaser bet you need to quit gambling
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10-24-12 09:26 PM #3
Never have but thanks for the input
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10-24-12 09:31 PM #4
TB @ MIN writeup from my MobFade Picks thread: I have been saying that MIN is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL, but I like this spot for them for a lot of reasons. The 2 biggest have to be the wayyy overrated TB run D that WILL NOT keep AP under 100 because their strength comes from stopping rushers outside the tackles, and their wayyyy overrated pass offense. Here are some facts:
vs Carolina: Carolina ran the ball 8 times with their running backs for essentially 0 yards. A pretty small sample size and J Stewart was out. 5 carries by Williams yielded -1 yard. Keep in mind, this was before Adrian Clayborn went out for the season. Da'Quan Bowers is also questionable for Thursday.
vs NYG: Ahmad Bradshaw went out in this game after 5 carries for 3.3 per, but Andre Brown carried it 13 times for 5.5 YPC. Brown is a downhill, between the tackles runner. This was a 41-34 shootout that quickly turned into a passing game.
vs Washington: Alfred Morris gashed TB for 5.4 YPC on 21 runs. He is the closest back to what they will see in AP that TB has had all year.
vs NO: Pierre Thomas had 13 carries, at 3.2 YPC, but NO has been awful running all year, averaging only 3.7.
Every other running back that they've faced in J Charles, D Murray, and Sproles is best running off-tackle, and they were pretty limited by TB's solid LB corps. The biggest takeaways here are the games they've played against Morris and Brown, who were both able to dominate them at about 5.5 ypc each. Minnesota has had success running against other teams that were good against the run, and even they weren't able to consistently limit AP.
As for TB's offense, Freeman has been erratic when he's not destroying the worst defenses in the NFL. In terms of Yards allowed per play, TB's opponents have looked like this on defense: NO (32nd, 6.6 YPP), NYG (31st, 6.4 YPP), KC (29th, 6.3 YPP), WAS (27th, 6.2 YPP), CAR (17th, 5.5 YPP), DAL (13th, 5.2 YPP). TB has scored a total of 148 points through 6 games this season. Of those, 26 were scored against Carolina and Dallas (the only defenses that were average or better by this metric), and a whopping 122 points against 4 of the 6 worst defenses in football. Interestingly enough the 28th ranked defense in terms of YPP is Tampa Bay themselves, while Minnesota ranks 7th allowing 4.8.
There are going to be two plays in this game. One is the under, and the other is going to be Minnesota either minus the points if the line moves to somewhere like 5, or on the moneyline. The under is the better play as Minnesota ranks 28th overall on offense (YPP), while I've explained why TB's #3 offense is a farce. Minnesota will control this game throughout with their rushing attack which will eat clock, and their defense will severely limit a streaky TB offense. The line has moved to 42.5 now which isn't exactly a key number, but it is at 42.5 at all books so we can wait until tomorrow to see if it continues to get juiced. If not, and some books start moving lower, we'll jump on whichever is left at 42.5.
One thing that I hate to do is lay more than a FG in games that I expect will be low-scoring, but this will should be moving down. According to the new Beta here at SBR that tracks actual dollar amounts wagered (see sticky if you don't know what im talking about), the dollar amounts wagered look like TB 81%/MIN19% and I think that most sharps are waiting to see if this thing goes down as well. We'll see how all of this plays out, but expect plays on MIN-5 and Under 43.5. Another point I forgot to mention is that this is Thursday night in MIN after emotional loss at home to NO and short week to prep.
The teaser I'm looking at if lines stay put is MIN-.5/UNDER 48.5
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10-24-12 09:31 PM #5
tease vikings -1 bucks+13 vikings will win anywhere between 3-10 points. won't touch the total
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10-24-12 09:45 PM #6
Just bet the Vikings and lay the points. That total is going to
you.
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10-24-12 10:02 PM #7
I don't think the vikings will cover 7 but yes I am afraid of the total
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10-24-12 10:05 PM #8
The Bucks blew their emotional load on Sunday against the Saints and still came up short. Vikings will have Freeman running for his life. Lay the points or at the very least buy it down to 6.5.
Originally Posted by Sir_Don_Yeggins
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10-25-12 12:32 AM #9
under. on thursday night games average scores drop around 8 to 9 points combined. minnesota clock management and solid defense. under is a sure lock. especially with the tease
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10-25-12 12:36 AM #10
Done just that...except 7pt teaser and ML+240 Originally Posted by Sir_Don_Yeggins
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10-25-12 01:06 AM #11
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10-25-12 10:52 PM #12
I thought coming on here was going to improve my betting strats. You bros in this thread have no idea what you are talking about. If you had 4 tvs in your living room and direct TV showing every game like I do you would know the bucs can move the ball even on the vikings who were gna make freeman 'run for his life'. Thank god i bet the clemson game and didn't listen to any of your rookies. I'll keep my +1600$ a week average and call you all noobs. Hope you enjoy your 1.00 mcribs tonight
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10-25-12 11:04 PM #13
Hard to take YOU seriously when you post that you put almost your entire account on ONE NCAA FB play and that you actively screw around with teasers. I'm glad you cashed, but it's rude to lump an entire group of people into the loser category because of one bad result. I'm sure you hit 100% of your selections, please feel free to share ALL of your wisdom with us because I rifled through your 6 posts and don't see a ton of insight being posted. Originally Posted by Sir_Don_Yeggins
Stay humble.
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10-25-12 11:57 PM #14
Im not suggesting I win 100% of my bets and I never would. I am a very humble better and the fact I came on here to request opinions should prove that. At the same time I would never tell some one to make a bet I wasn't 99% sure about and you told me to 'lay the points'. Rather than preach to me, maybe you should consider what you tell other people to do.
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10-25-12 11:59 PM #15
Strong edge and reasoning you got there. Originally Posted by Sir_Don_Yeggins
Maybe the rest of us should go out and buy 6 or even 8 TV's so we can all get a better idea as to the outcome of these games.
Just imagine what 10 or 12 TV's could do.
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10-26-12 12:04 AM #16
Your missing the point. You can punch all the stats into an excel spread sheet all you want, but its important to watch the team live to see what they can actually do. I appreciate the ones who responded with suggestions and analyst
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10-26-12 12:07 AM #17
I did believe in that selection. I ended up taking the moneyline, but I strongly believed the Vikings would control this game. It was only after I read a write-up on the Tampa Bay secondary that I changed my mind and took the money line. I was wrong and had to jump on Tampa Bay late @ -13.5 to salvage a small profit. Originally Posted by Sir_Don_Yeggins
I'm not attacking you, for all I know you are a great capper. Ultimately, you listened to your instincts and it paid off for you. I'm glad you cashed. I just think you'll make more friends and pick up a few things if you hold back on the name calling and finger pointing AFTER a game is over.Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 03-27-15 at 02:09 PM. Reason: image does not exist
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10-26-12 12:10 AM #18
Okay, I get where you're coming from. Like you, I like insightful write-ups on the games. Good luck with the rest of the season. Originally Posted by Sir_Don_Yeggins
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10-26-12 12:14 AM #19
I get what your saying. Maybe next time you jump on a team late to salvage your money you should think about the people who read your posts early in the night and follow your suggestions only to lose while you win late. Just a thought
Last edited by Sir_Don_Yeggins; 10-26-12 at 12:24 AM.
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10-26-12 12:25 AM #20
Oh. I thought we were all a bunch of rookies and noobs who dont know what were talking about. Originally Posted by Sir_Don_Yeggins
By the way, if you awesome TV's give you such a great edge, then why did you tease the game 6 points and then back out only to bet Clemson?
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10-26-12 12:30 AM #21
First off, Steve, Im not even talking about you. Secondly, I wavered from the vikings to cash in on the more obvious bet -- Clemson
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10-26-12 12:38 AM #22
[QUOTE=Sir_Don_Yeggins;16527388]I get what your saying. Maybe next time you jump on a team late to salvage your money you should think about the people who read your posts early in the night and follow your suggestions only to lose while you win late. Just a thought[/QUOTE]
Honestly, do you really think anyone on this site would notice that I bought the other side with seven minutes left in the fourth quarter? Really? I'd like to think that I had that many followers, but ultimately people make up their own mind. I cannot be responsible for people tailing the advice that I offer on this site. I'm not a tout, nor do I claim to be. Like others on this site, I offer free advice. People can do with it what they like.
I wish I could predict that the Vikings would fumble twice and fail to stop the Buccaneers ground game, but I didn't. Tampa had an awful pass defense history before this game and I assumed that even Christian Ponder could dink and dunk his way to a few scores. Unfortunately, the Viking fell behind and compounded the problem by turning the ball over.
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10-26-12 01:34 AM #23
[QUOTE=A4K;16527546]
Just face it A4K... Originally Posted by Sir_Don_Yeggins
You don't own enough TV's.
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10-26-12 02:13 AM #24
[QUOTE=SteveRyan;16527808]
Someday, Steve, someday. Until then, I'll just have to do with the three that I have. Originally Posted by A4K
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10-26-12 11:59 AM #25
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