1. #1
    MobFade
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    MobFade's NFL Picks

    Right now I have two Week 7 totals plays that are probably mortal locks. Throughout the week I will post my analysis of the upcoming games, with plans on placing most bets on gameday, or the night previous if I think I will still be too drunk to wake up 3 hours prior to kickoff to lock down this action. The plan is usually to make the square bets early in the week, and the sharp ones later. The amount of action that comes in on the public play will dictate how long I wait, but I will post what to watch for in the meantime.

    Obviously I have no credibility on this board, but if you think my plays suck, tell me why. Then I'll tell you why you'll never be a winning sports bettor. GL.

  2. #2
    MobFade
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    Also, I'll be putting these into my spreadsheet so you can see where I'm at. I started doing that last week and went 7-5 with Den+1.5 and u50 in play tonight. I put too much stats analysis into last week and tailed the public much harder than I usually do.

    Here are the picks I have so far for week 7, so book them now:
    WAS/NYG O49-120 // TOP BET // (bought hook from 49.5)
    GB/STL U44.5 // LEGENDS


    Teams I like for Week 7 are: Rams, Bills, Colts, Ravens, Bucs, Panthers, Cardinals, Redskins, Patriots, Jaguars, Bengals. I don't know if I'll bet all or even most of them, but am keeping an eye on them based on initial wagers, psychology, and stats. Here's the analysis for the Rams.

    On the Watchlist: Rams+6.5-110
    Current Best: Rams+6-115
    Will take Rams+6 on Gameday.


    About 90% action on the Packers and wouldn't expect this line to get worse against such a public team. Bovada seems to be a good gauge for where lines will end up, and they posted the +6-115. GB coming off a blowout of a Texans team who became the trendiest SB pick in the NFL by wrecking awful AFC teams. GB/HOU was a statement game for GB after everyone has been talking about something being wrong with the Packers, and the offense in particular. 6 Rodgers TD's later and everyone is back on the wagon against the lowly Rams. Fun fact: Did you know the Rams only won 2 games last year, and that two years ago, the Seahawks won the division at 7-9? LOLOLOLOL NFC WORST LOLOLOL


    The Rams are 4-1 ATS, and 3-0 ATS at home this year. Their D is legit, their offense blows, and they are Amendola-less which raises concerns about whether or not they have any aerial attack (limited though it may have been). They couldn't do it against a "terrible" Miami team, who sports the 14th ranked Pass D and the 2nd ranked Rush D (in terms of yards allowed per play). The Rams outgained Miami 462 to 192 yards from scrimmage, and averaged 6.7 YPP, whereas Miami could only pick up 3.9. FG wunderkind Greg Zuerlein blew 3 FG's last week and what has really plagued the Rams is not moving the ball, but getting into the endzone.


    St. Louis played against a better defense last week than the Packers will most likely field with Raji, Perry and 8 other players currently listed as Questionable in week 7. Bradford's dink and dunk WCO will somewhat neutralize Clay Matthews and the GB Pass Rush, even with Roger Saffold listed as Questionable. Daryl Richardson is emerging as a viable replacement for Steven Jackson, as he averaged 6.9 over 11 carries to Jackson's 4.3 on 12. The Rams do however have one of the worst fanbases in the NFL, and I would expect too large a percentage of the home crowd to be Packer "fans" that have never been to Wisconsin, but still looking like idiots with cheese on their heads.


    In summation: Vegas takes 75% action on the Pack, who start out flat against the Rams after wrecking the Texans and restoring some credibility. This game will play out similarly to the Sea/GB game with neither team being able to get into the end-zone with any regularity and Greg Zuerlein kicks a game winner. Pack fall to the Rams and the Rams still get no respect. Vegas laughs all the way to the bank.


    GB 17 - StL 20
    Last edited by MobFade; 10-15-12 at 06:53 PM. Reason: Accidentally unbolded a pick

  3. #3
    MobFade
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    Massive fluke to start the MNF game to cover the over, but Denver shows they were clearly the best team going in.

  4. #4
    MobFade
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    Week 7 Round 2

    New pick: Stl+6-115

  5. #5
    MobFade
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    Was going to post this earlier, but my internet was messing up. Obviously line on StL game has moved to -6-110 on Bovada, so take that if you haven't already:


    Still early in the week, but looks like lines are trending back to +5 across the board, with Pinny having it closer to 4.5 than 5.5. I'm going to pull the trigger on +6 right now as it looks like there is no chance it gets to 7, and we're starting to see some reverse line movement. Still about 90% action on GB, so this looks like it's going to be the sharpest play all week. If somehow this gets to 7, I'll add another unit. I always bet 1 unit flat except rare times when I add a unit on a better line, or I want to throw in a correlated parlay.


    Picks we've made so far this week:
    WAS/NYG O49-120 (buy down from 49.5)
    GB/STL U44.5
    StL+6-115


    Waiting for:
    Bal+7.5-110
    Buf-3-110
    Ind-3-110
    TB+3-110
    Car+3-110
    Ari+6.5-110
    Jax+5-110
    Cin+3-110


    I don't actually think these lines will all get to these points, they are just where I would probably buy them mid-week unless it looked like it was about to move further. Most of the time I pick the ones that Vegas still has lopsided action on just prior to gametime, and makes no move to correct. My square plays for this week are on Buffalo and Indianapolis. It looks like Buffalo might move to -3.5, as it is pretty precariously balanced on -3-125 at most books, in which case I wouldn't play it unless it got better on Sunday. Indianapolis does look like it should improve later in the week to somewhere close to -3-110.


    Staying away from a side (for now):
    Sea/SF
    Was/NYG
    NYJ/NE
    Det/Chi


    Gun to my head, I would take Sea/Was/NE/Chi.

  6. #6
    MobFade
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    Another pick to book now:
    TB+3-115 // Bovada

    Almost booked Cin+3-135 on bookmaker, but I want to see where bovada hangs their line first.

    Other sides I am looking at: Chi, NYG, Car, Buf, Ari, Bal, but no plays yet. If More sites start moving to Buf-3.5, I'll probably swallow the 15 cents and book them -125. Chi play might come in on Monday if it moves back closer to 4. Same with giants maybe coming in Sunday. Carolin, Cincinnati, and Arizona, just waiting to see how inflated the public money can get these lines, and Baltimore might be a play if everyone overreacts to ray.

    Will keep you guys posted

  7. #7
    MobFade
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    Looks like sharp money coming in on Cincy right now. Just booked them on Top Bet where they still have it at +2.5-110. I actually bought it at +3-135. So the play is:

    Cin+3-135 // Top Bet

  8. #8
    MobFade
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    Plays so far this week:
    StL+6-115
    Cin+3-135
    TB+3-115
    WAS/NYG O49-120
    GB/STL U44.5

  9. #9
    MobFade
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    Steam on Jacksonville, just booked it at:
    Jax+4.5-110 // Top Bet
    Last edited by MobFade; 10-17-12 at 12:13 PM. Reason: Bold

  10. #10
    MobFade
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    Pretty pissed that I took the under in GB/StL so quickly. I was killing totals at the beginning of the season, but I just noticed today that in the 10-6 that I went last week, I went 1-4 in totals, so I think I'm going to try to just spot sharp action this week. That being said, there are a few interesting spots coming up w/ no or reverse line movement on juiced lines:

    NYJ/NE 81% OVER 47.5, half of books moved to 47
    CLE/IND 81% OVER 45, no movement
    TEN/BUF 73% OVER 46.5, half of books moved to 46

    Going to see how these play out until gameday and if they stay this lopsided and there is no or slight movement to adjust, I'll probably place some bets.

  11. #11
    MobFade
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    Seattle is going to be a play here tonight. Right now 60% still on 49ers. I'm guessing this was sharp money that came in on SF at -7, because all of the sudden it was at 9 across the board. Because all of them are at 9, I'm going to wait and see if it will maybe move to something like +9.5-115 if this is also a case of Vegas trying to not take a side here. Next post will be the play.

  12. #12
    MobFade
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    Looks to be evening out. Just booked:

    SEA+9-110 // Top Bet

  13. #13
    MobFade
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    BUY BUY BUY
    ARI+7-120 // BOVADA

    Arizona was overrated after a fast start, but they have come down to earth in the public eye. Minnesota still hasn't and this might be the game to expose them, as they are currently the most overrated team in the NFL. I know sharp money was coming in on Minnesota at -5, but you will see more sharp money come in on Arizona probably today at +7, which is why I'm pulling the trigger on this at +7-120 now on Bovada. Another reason I want to take this is that the action is now balanced 50/50 and books currently on the shaded 7's might settle at 6.5


  14. #14
    MobFade
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    Well, 1-0 to start the week. To recap we have:


    SEA+9-110 W
    ARI+7-120
    Jax+4.5-110

    StL+6-115
    Cin+3-135
    TB+3-115
    WAS/NYG O49-120
    GB/STL U44.5




    It looks like I jumped the gun on the StL game both on the side and the total. This line might get all the way to 7 by gametime, but more likely something like 6.5+100 that we can buy to 7. If that's the case, I'll be adding another unit, or maybe a parlay with that and the under which has moved to 45.5 to win a unit. Other than that I'm happy with the other plays we've made. Here are some plays I'm looking at:

    The play would be the Under on these totals that I mentioned on Wednesday. It looks like these will probably be plays on gameday when Vegas should nudge the line more favorably for the under. BetDSI video confirmed that the CLE/IND under was sharp action. Lines/bets currently at:

    NYJ/NE 84% on OVER now 47.5, some reverse line movement
    CLE/IND 73% on OVER now 45.5
    TEN/BUF 75% OVER 46.5, no movement

    Sides we are looking at for gameday are:
    CAR+3: Action still lopsided at 79% Dallas. If it doesn't move all the way to 3, we'll try to buy up from 2.5.
    BAL+7.5: Again, I doubt this moves all the way there, and I might just take this at +7 on Bovada in a few minutes. This game is obviously scary as we don't know what the state of the Baltimore defense will be, but their offense has been carrying them all year anyway. I see a shootout and a play on the Over earlier in the week would have been prudent, but I think it's too late now at 48. Baltimore is on the road where their no-huddle has been ineffective for the most part due to crowd noise, but I just think Baltimore is too good to lose any game by 7.
    WAS+7: Hopefully this gets to 6.5 and we can buy it up. NYG have been bad at home this year, and the public was pounding them earlier in the week. Unfortunately, action is balanced and line seems to be stuck at 6, but crazier stuff has happened when I thought lines would stay put. See: Seahawks moving from +7 to +9 last night.
    DET+7/CHI-5: Both of these lines look good to me, so we'll have to see what happens on Monday afternoon. Line currently at 6.5 most places, so a purchase up to 7 may be in order, or maybe some kind of tease with DET/OVER or CHI/UNDER.

  15. #15
    MobFade
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    Alright guys, 2 more plays:

    ARI+7.5-125 // BOOKMAKER
    BAL+7-110 // LEGENDS


    This was my second unit on Arizona, and I bought the hook from 7. Baltimore I just left at 7 as I think they have a better chance of keeping this close.

  16. #16
    MobFade
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    Another play:

    JAX+7-125 // LEGENDS

  17. #17
    MobFade
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    Plays so far have been:

    JAX+7-125
    ARI+7.5-125
    BAL+7-110
    SEA+9-110 W
    ARI+7-120
    Jax+4.5-110

    StL+6-115
    Cin+3-135
    TB+3-115
    WAS/NYG O49-120
    GB/STL U44.5


    I blew my load way early on Jacksonville and am gonna take another unit on it at +7-125 which I bought from 6.5-110. Might be some totals plays tomorrow, and definitely something on Dallas/Carolina.

  18. #18
    EvilBettor
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    No offense, but I think you are overloaded on dogs. Last week was a dog week. This week will not be repeat dog week.

  19. #19
    pologq
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    i think the redskins and giants score at least 55 points tomorrow. it will be score for score. i also like the rams at 6,6.5, and 7. i think the rams are hungry. the texans are overrated so beating them wasn't as big as it seems. the jets almost beat the texans so that tells you the texans are overrated.

  20. #20
    MobFade
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    Quote Originally Posted by EvilBettor View Post
    No offense, but I think you are overloaded on dogs. Last week was a dog week. This week will not be repeat dog week.
    I noticed that I only have dogs this week and I don't feel great about it, but these are the picks I like this week, and I don't want to go against that just because I haven't picked any favorites. This is the first week all year I have not been pretty evenly split. Last week was a dog week, true, but this year has been a dog year. Someone posted a stat that NFC underdogs are 32-5 ATS this year and I believe it.

    We'll see how this week goes and I will re-evaluate my capping process after that, as I feel that is all I can do. Which favorites do you guys like here that I have picked against and why?

  21. #21
    MobFade
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    I'll admit I am not crazy about the JAX play, and really am not looking forward to picking against Dallas tomorrow, which I won't do unless the line is too good to pass up. Every other dog bet I feel is justified and I got at a good price sans STL which I should have waited out until gameday. I am a little bit nervous about trying to pick 3 unders tomorrow, so i will probably only make a play on the NYJ/NE under, as that is the only game I capped as going under the current total.

  22. #22
    MobFade
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    Play:
    Ind-PK-120 // LEGENDS

  23. #23
    MobFade
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    WEEK 7 RECAP:

    6-5-1

    A lot of lessons learned this week. We were heavy on dogs as a poster pointed out, and I think that was me trying to tail Vegas too hard following their massive success this year against the public. Whereas this week was almost all line analysis and finding value, I'll be balancing that back out with capping and matchup analysis. The principle that I think has generated the most success for me this year is fading the general consensus that some teams are garbage (NFC West, Jets, AFC South, etc.) or super-bowl bound. Coupled with anticipating line movement, buying when the line was at it's most favorable point and buying on or off the hook, I think I have been able to find value in a lot of good spots. That being said, lines I'll be looking for next week are:

    STL+7.5 V NE IN LONDON
    IND+3.5 @ TEN
    GB-9.5 @ JAX
    SD ML @ CLE
    PHI PK V ATL
    SEA+3 @ DET
    MIA+3.5 @ NYJ
    WAS+6 @ PIT
    KC ML V OAK
    NYG+1 @ DAL
    DEN-5 V NOR
    SF ML @ ARI

    Probably going to pull the trigger now on NYG+1 w/ 90% of bets coming in on NYG already. Giants have been better on the road than at home, and Dallas has been pretty bad at home. Both teams just coming off close wins but the NYG looking for revenge after dropping home opener at Dallas. Romo and the boys aren't as bad as they've looked, but the Giants are better. Getting a point is just gravy. I'm going to look and see where the best value is at and will post that play shortly.

  24. #24
    KktdocT
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    GL, mate.

  25. #25
    MobFade
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    PLAY IF YOU CAN STILL GET IT:

    NYG+1-110 // Legends

  26. #26
    MobFade
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    Another reason I like the Giants here is that there are a lot of injury question marks for Dallas, especially at Center, RB and ILB. NY is getting healthier, and I think we'll see Nicks back to form which the Giants will need against the Dallas corners. If you can only get them at PK-110, take it. This line will probably keep moving all the way to NYG-2.5

  27. #27
    MobFade
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    Another play for right now:

    IND+3.5-110 // BOOKMAKER
    Tennessee is coming off 2 wins against an injury ravaged Steelers team at home on MNF, and ran all over a non-existent Buffalo D. I think this line is slightly inflated because of that, and Indy is coming off a close win against an underrated Cleveland team and a rout against the Jets. I think Hasselbeck is still a better option at QB over Locker and if Locker does start, he's coming off 3 weeks of no reps and no game-time which is huge for a guy with only a couple starts under his belt. Chris Johnson had a huge stat line, but still looked pretty bad when he wasn't snapping off huge runs through monster holes. He is fast, but not decisive and that has been his problem all year.

    I think these teams are pretty close but Indianapolis has impressed me a little bit more and I'll take them with the hook on the other side of 3.

    Also remember to take NYG+1 if you can find it, or PK if that's all you can get. This line will close NYG-2.5

  28. #28
    MobFade
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    NE/STL writeup: I like STL here ATS, especially if we can buy it at 7.5. Early action shows a 75% lean on NE who is coming off a close win against the Jets at home. We could probably find this at 7.5-135, but I think we wait until the end of the week as I promised myself I would do that against teams bet heavily by the public. This line looks like it's about to move to 6.5 for now, but should get back to the 7 by Sunday.

    On the field, the obvious concerns for both teams are that STL can't score points, and NE's secondary can't play football. I think NE's secondary is the bigger concern w/ Chung and Gregory banged up and having given up big performances to Ryan Fitzpatrick, Russell Wilson, and Mark Sanchez in the last 4 weeks. I don't see how Bradford doesn't throw for at least 250 averaging 8 a pass. Add that to St. Louis strong running game with Jackson/Richardson and I think the STL offense keeps up with the NE offense with Hernandez still banged up.

    The STL defense has looked good, but has shown to be susceptible downfield as well, which Tom Brady should be able to exploit similarly to Rodgers. What I like about STL's D vs the Patriots is their linebacking corps vs Gronkowski. This STL secondary is built almost opposite to Seattle's with most of their size inside, and their speed outside, which should provide good matchups all over the field.

  29. #29
    MobFade
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    SD @ CLE writeup: San Diego off the bye after a MNF meltdown at home v Denver. A lot of national coverage on that has the public generally down on SD, but they've had a week now to forget about it. Cleveland has recently shown that they're probably not the worst team in the NFL, but there is still 88% early action on San Diego. Gaither is the only significant question mark for SD, while TRich has had a nagging cartilidge issue in his ribs and some are speculating he might be out until after the bye. I think SD is the clear side here, but the question is when to take him and where is the best value. News on TRich is probably going to cause an overreaction in the market. I say overreaction because I think that even if he does go, he'll be severely limited and not playing anywhere near his normal level. I suspect that he will NOT play this game, so I think we get our money in before that news becomes official.

    The question then becomes one of where we are getting the best value. The ML is usually my preference here with favorites of about a FG, but -150 that Top Bet currently lists isn't ideal. Still though, I think it's the safe play, and I would like to get it in on the public side early, and before more injury news comes out.

    The play right now is:
    SD-150 ML // TOP BET

  30. #30
    MobFade
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    ATL @ PHI writeup: This one is tough, and at first glance look likes a trap line. Tumult in Philly with the firing of their DC, Vick is in the dog house (haha), and they just imploded against Detroit before the bye. Atlanta is 6-0 but had a close call at home against the inept Raiders. As of right now Asante Samuel is listed as questionable with a foot injury but I suspect that with a week off, he'll go on gameday. If he is, even Vick might be able to complete a few passes. I'm going to stay away from this one for now, but 75% lean on ATL has not seen the line move off PHI-1.

  31. #31
    MobFade
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    MIA @ NYJ writeup: Another tough game to figure with NYJ right around -2 for now. I like Miami to win this game most of the time and about 75% early action on NYJ means we'll play wait-and-see to try and buy this to MIA+3 on gameday. I expect it to settle at about NYJ-2.5.

    When these two teams met earlier in the season, NYJ won 23-21 in overtime, after Miami blew a couple chances to win. In the end, I think NYJ have gotten a boost in the public eye after a blowout of IND and an overtime loss to NE. Miami should be healthy, and I think that in the end the progression of Tannehill and being laid points is the sharp side in a game that figures to be another close defensive battle.

    Wait-and-see for a play on Miami around +3.

  32. #32
    MobFade
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    NO @ DEN writeup: Drew Brees is getting laid almost a touchdown on a trappy -6.5 for Denver, but I still like a play on Denver later in the week. 72% early on the Saints should push the line down just a few points, and the Saints have lost by more than a TD to both WAS and CAR in weeks 1 and 2. New Orleans has proved to be equally inept against both the pass and the run, but they may get some sort of boost getting Joe Vitt back. Denver is coming off the bye which should give Peyton Manning more than enough time to gameplan for how to dissect this defense. The only concerns I have taking the Broncos ATS is obviously that anything can happen with Brees at the helm, and Denver might come out with a more conservative ground based attack, leading to a closer, lower-scoring game. The key to this game is going to be getting pressure on Brees and forcing him to make a mistake, and when it comes to QB pressure, I think Denver is more than capable. I cringe at the though of laying more than -200 on a ML, but if the line holds strong at -6, that might be the play. If that were the case it would also mean that the sharps are on Denver, though that solace got me nowhere last week.

    The play:
    Wait for a more favorable Denver line later in the week.

  33. #33
    MobFade
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    ^^In regards to the NO/DEN game, Jimmy Graham is questionable for now but if he is upgraded later, expect this line to move to where we can feel good about taking it.

  34. #34
    MobFade
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    SF @ ARI writeup: SF just coming off a close victory against SEA at home, and the cards off a loss @ MIN. Gore listed as probable but will probably not be his usual self with bruised ribs, and Skelton gets the start for Arizona. Arizona has definitely been on the decline, and the public knows it, but this game is still pretty evenly bet at SF-6.5 on the road on MNF. They have a lot of time off between last Thursday and next Monday to prepare, and this game should go similarly to SEA/SF. The difference here is the offensive line for Arizona, which has been exposed, giving up an astounding league high 35 sacks. The pressure and possible early exit of Skelton is the reason SF is the play, and probably laying the points. Arizona's strength is in it's interior line, but SF was still able to gash the normally elite Seahawks run D on Thursday. The under is the other play for this game, and with about 70% of money coming in on the over, we'll wait on both bets for now.

  35. #35
    MobFade
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    Play right now:
    ​SEA+3-125 // BOOKMAKER

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