Defending Super Bowl champions are hard to figure out
New York fell behind the Cleveland Browns by two touchdowns early last week, but managed to come away with a 41-27 victory as 7.5-point home favorites, while the OVER cashed for the first time in three weeks. The Giants are known to play to the level of their competition, but have to be respected in this type of situation, as they’ve gone 9-5 against the spread (ATS) as road underdogs the last two-plus seasons.
49ers absolutely dropped the hammer on the Bills
San Francisco scored a 45-3 blowout victory over the Buffalo Bills as 10-point home favorite last week, as it won the statistical battle by 417 yards. The 49ers became the first team in NFL history with 300 yards passing and 300 yards rushing in the same game. Sports bettors may have little trouble laying the points in this NFC rivalry when looking at the pro football odds page, considering Sunday’s host has gone 14-4 ATS at Candlestick Park since 2010.
Manning does his best work in October
Giants quarterback Eli Manning has compiled an incredible 23-5 straight-up record in the month of October during his NFL career, which is definitely a statistic to be aware of when handicapping such a high-profile affair. The Giants have won eight of their last nine games in this calendar month, while going 5-3-1 ATS in those opportunities.
Smith continues to impress in a balanced attack
49ers quarterback Alex Smith definitely benefits from his team possessing the NFL’s top rushing attack, which averages 195.9 yards per game, but he’s putting up some eye-opening numbers in the passing game. The former first overall selection leads the league with a 108.7 passer rating, throwing for 1,087 yards and eight touchdowns with just a single interception. Smith is 22-12-2 ATS at home during his career, while Manning is 43-23-2 ATS when playing outside of the Big Apple.
Revenge is the name of the game
Sports handicappers definitely have to consider the major revenge factor in this game when making their pro football predictions for the week, as the Giants captured a 20-17 overtime win over the 49ers as two-point road underdogs to advance to the Super Bowl. San Francisco lost the statistical battle by 24 yards, but did manage to out-gain the defending champions by a 150-85 margin on the ground. I find that to be a significant statistic.
-Giants are 23-7 ATS on the road after outrushing their previous opponent by 100 or more yards
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kansas City is 1-4 and comes off a disappointing 9-6 setback to the Baltimore Ravens as six-point home underdogs last week, considering it won the statistical battle for the fifth consecutive week. Chiefs starting quarterback Matt Cassel suffered a concussion in the loss, which likely means that backup Brady Quinn will get the nod this week. Offensively, the team ranks fourth in the National Football League, but has been derailed by a minus-15 turnover margin. Kansas City is 7-1 ATS after two or more consecutive losses, with the UNDER going 7-1 in that situation.
The Chiefs will look to get the ball into the hands of Jamaal Charles as much as possible, as he leads the league with 551 rushing yards on 102 carries. Kansas City has split its 10 meetings in this particular series, but the franchise has dropped the last two, including a 30-27 overtime loss as 9.5-point home underdogs on Nov. 2, 2008. It will be interesting to see if the locker room rallies around Cassel’s injury, as it has been a main topic of discussion, following Eric Winston’s comments about the team’s fan base cheering his departure from last week’s game.
Tampa Bay used the extra-long weekend to rest and recuperate, as first-year head coach Greg Schiano focuses on snapping a three-game losing streak. “The whole team is feeling refreshed,” commented Buccaneers defensive end Michael Bennett. The Buccaneers players may have took some time away from the practice field, but the coaching staff worked until Friday last week in preparing for this non-conference matchup. Tampa Bay is 0-2 at home with a total of 38.5 to 42 points.
The Buccaneers rank 30th in total offense in averaging 276.0 yards per game, while their defense sits 27th. Tampa Bay has been outscored by a 37-22 margin in the fourth quarter this season, which has played a major part in losing three consecutive games by a total of 15 points. Quarterback Josh Freeman needs to make plays in the passing game, throwing for 790 yards and five touchdowns with four interceptions in four games this season.
-Chiefs are minus-15 in turnover differential (worst in the NFL)
-Second in the NFL in rushing
-Held the Ravens to a season-low 298 yards last week
-QB Brady Quinn, 65.8 passer rating in seven career road games (52.5 percent completion percentage, 4 TDs, 4 INTs)
-Raiders and Chargers on deck
-Buccaneers are plus-three in turnover differential
-Outscored 37-22 in the fourth quarter
-Both teams have faced very similar schedules in terms of strength (Chiefs have out-gained all five of their opponents, Buccaneers have lost the battle all five times)
-Chiefs have won their last four games when having two divisional games on deck (3-1 ATS since 2010)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati had its three-game win streak snapped in a 17-13 setback to the Miami Dolphins as three-point home favorites last week, while going UNDER the total for the second consecutive contest. “We’ve got to score more than 13 points,” stated Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis. The Bengals are in second place in the AFC North Division, a single game back of the Baltimore Ravens. In the first three games, the offense averaged 416.7 yards per game and 34.7 points, but that has fallen off to 255.0 and 13.5 points in those categories the past two weeks. Cincinnati is 3-1 ATS as a road favorite over the last two-plus years.
The Bengals earned a 34-27 win over the Browns as seven-point home favorites on Sept. 16, but they lost the statistical battle by a 64-yard margin. Cincinnati will attempt to pick up the season sweep and win its fifth consecutive game in this divisional series. The last victory gave the franchise its biggest lead in the rivalry, going 42-36 over a 43-year period. Quarterback Andy Dalton has performed well in three games against Sunday’s opponent, completing 71.4 percent of his passes for 669 yards and five touchdowns with a single interception.
Cleveland returns home for its first game in front of its fans since September 23, as the team still searches for its first win. The Browns are off to their worst start since opening 0-7 in 1999, as the roster underwent some significant changes in the offseason, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden threw for a season-high 332 yards against the Bengals last month, but he’s also tied for the league-lead with nine interceptions. Cleveland is 8-4 ATS when revenging a loss against an opponent.
The Browns have been out-gained by a triple-digit yardage margin in their last three games, including a 41-27 loss to the New York Giants as 7.5-point road underdogs in Week 5. Cleveland first-year running back Trent Richardson did manage to gain 81 yards on the ground, as he’s managed to record a rushing touchdown in four straight games. On the defensive side of the ball, the unit has forced 10 turnovers on the year, while ranking fifth in the league in interceptions. Star cornerback Joe Haden is expected back in the lineup after serving a four-game suspension.
Sports bettors will likely back the Browns due to the underdog going 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, while the Bengals are 0-4-3 ATS following a SU loss.
Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets
Indianapolis will hit the road for the first time in a month in traveling to MetLife Stadium to take on New York, as the youthful roster gets ready to play its second game without head coach Chuck Pagano, who missed last week’s 30-27 come-from-behind win over the Green Bay Packers as 6.5-point home underdogs due to being diagnosed with a form of leukemia. Veteran wide receiver Reggie Wayne came up with a huge performance, catching 13 passes for a career-high 212 yards, as he ranks third in the NFL with 506 receiving yards entering this round of action. Indianapolis is 0-3 ATS off an extremely close home win by three points or less.
The Colts are being led offensively by Andrew Luck, who became the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to throw for 1,200 yards and win at least two of his team’s first four games. Indianapolis may try to run the football a bit more in this particular matchup, considering New York ranks second to last in surrendering 172.0 rushing yards per game. Rookie Vick Ballard is expected to get a bulk of the carries.
New York has scored a total of 17 points in losing its last two games against the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers, while going UNDER the total in three of its last four contests. The Jets need to get back to their ground-and-pound style, especially when going against an opponent that’s giving up an average of 5.1 yards per rush in their base defense. New York is 3-0 ATS after losing three of its last four games, with the OVER going 2-1 in that situation.
The Jets are sticking with Mark Sanchez under center, who completed 14 of 31 passes for a touchdown and two interceptions in Monday night’s 23-17 setback to the Texans in front of a national audience. He ranks last in the league in connecting on just 48.4 percent of his passes, as the offensive unit is gaining just 293.4 yards per game. New York’s secondary may serve as a stiff test for Luck even without star cornerback Darrelle Revis, as it ranks fifth in the league in surrendering 199.8 passing yards per game.
Sports bettors will likely back the Jets due to their 12-4-1 ATS mark when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game, while the Colts are 0-12 ATS versus losing teams.
-Rex Ryan is 7-1 ATS versus an opponent off an upset win
New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks
New England will hit the road for the fourth time in six weeks when it travels west to face Seattle at CenturyLink Field, as it will serve as Tom Brady’s first-ever visit to the Pacific Northwest in his NFL career. The Patriots have tallied a 5-4 record under head coach Bill Belichick when playing on the West Coast. Last year’s AFC champions have won their last two games, while going OVER the total in three consecutive contests. New England is 9-4 ATS as a road favorite of seven or fewer points, while going above the total in 10 of 14 in that situation.
The Patriots have gone 33-6 in the month of October since the 2003 campaign, which includes a 14-5 record on the road. New England has been incredibly balanced on the offensive end recently, which led directly to tallying 35 first downs in a 31-21 win over the Denver Broncos as 5.5-point home favorites last week, which was actually a franchise record. Offensively, the team has gained 498 rushing yards over the last two games, which is the highest such total in that type of span since 1978.
Seattle knows it’s in for quite a test on the defensive end, but that unit ranks first in the National Football League in allowing just 258.6 yards per game. The Seahawks will be trying to slow down an offense that leads the league in gaining 439.4 yards per contest. There’s no doubt that the pass rush will need to get to Brady, with Chris Clemons and Bruce Irvin combining for 10 sacks on the season, which is the most for any tandem in football. Seattle is 6-0 ATS at home when the total is 42.5 to 45 over the last two-plus seasons.
The Seahawks return home after splitting a pair of road games, as they come off a 16-12 victory over the Carolina Panthers as one-point road underdogs. Seattle has gone OVER the total in all five games this season, while winning the statistical battle in four of those contests. Rookie quarterback Russell Wilson may have taken a step forward last week, throwing for 221 yards after failing to break the 160-yard margin in each of the first four games.
Sports bettors will likely back the Patriots due to their 4-1 ATS mark on the road versus winning home teams, while the Seahawks are 1-5 ATS after allowing less than 150 yards passing.
-NFC underdogs are 26-4-1 ATS this year
-Seahawks are 11-2-1 ATS when hosting AFC opponents
-Seahawks 14-5 ATS at home under Pete Carroll
-Patriots defense allowing more than 100 yards per game more than the Seahawks
-Patriots 10-0 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or fewer points versus NFC opponents
Dallas Cowboys vs. Baltimore Ravens
Cowboys have fallen into a pattern of mediocrity
Dallas has alternated wins and losses over its first four games of the season, as it looks to bounce back from a humiliating 34-18 loss to the Chicago Bears as three-point home favorites on Oct. 1. The Cowboys have compiled a 122-122 record since the 1997 season, which includes an even 10-10 mark since last season. Pro football handicappers shouldn’t be surprised to see America’s Team as a road underdog on the pro football odds page.
Ravens have fallen flat against the number
Baltimore has won three consecutive games since suffering its only loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2, but it’s important to note that the franchise has gone 0-3 against the spread (ATS) in winning its last three games. The Ravens are certainly capable to turn things around given the situation, as they’ve gone 10-5 ATS in their last 15 tries after three or more consecutive losses against the spread.
Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers
The Cowboys are tied with the Philadelphia Eagles for the 30th position in the NFL in terms of turnover margin (-7), which is a statistic that always concerns me when making my pro football picks each week. From a handicapping perspective, Dallas lands in a great spot to avoid making these mistakes in Week 6, as it comes off its regular season bye week. This team has a great chance to improve to 8-1 ATS after enjoying a week off.
Flacco will be tested by an aggressive defense
Joe Flacco has become one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL over the last couple years, as he enters with 1,456 passing yards through five games, while also throwing for seven touchdowns and four interceptions. Baltimore’s offense has struggled in third-down situations in the early going this year, converting on 33 percent of those opportunities, which ranks 24th in the league. Dallas defensive coordinator Rob Ryan will have the statistic circled, especially with the type of talent he has in getting after an opposing signal-caller.
We’ve been here before
Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo nearly pulled off a straight-up underdog victory against the New England Patriots in this same exact spot a year ago, but ultimately suffered a 20-16 setback in Week 6. Dallas came into that contest after its bye week, while also trying to move past a disappointing 34-30 setback to the Detroit Lions in its previous game. Romo threw for three interceptions against the Lions—a number that’s very similar to the five picks he threw against the Bears a couple weeks ago.
Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Cowboys as one of their top pro football picks, as they’ve gone covered their last seven games when getting more than a field goal in the betting market. Sports bettors will also gain confidence in knowing that the underdog is 22-4-1 in the team’s last 27 games.
-Ravens are 22-10 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 to 7 points
Green Bay Packers vs. Houston Texans
-Won five of their last six games on Sunday night (18-5 all-time, best winning percentage in the NFL)
-Gone 9-4 in prime-time games since 2009
-QB Aaron Rodgers is No. 1 all-time with a 98.6 passer rating on the road
-Rodgers 11-5 ATS as an underdog
-First five games of the year against AFC opponents
-Lost their last three games in SU fashion against NFC teams as a home favorite
-Revenge game on deck against the Baltimore Ravens (knocked them out of last year’s playoffs)
-Preliminary report is the roof will be closed at Reliant Stadium - Rodgers has incredible numbers in dome stadiums in his career
-LB Brian Cushing lost for the year, team’s MVP from last season
-Packers are 1-4 ATS on the year, dressed as a favorite each time
St. Louis Rams vs. Miami Dolphins
St. Louis hits the road after picking up a pair of divisional home victories against the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks, while going UNDER the total in the last three contests. The Rams are above .500 for the first time since 2006, which is significant to mention under first-year head coach Jeff Fisher. Offensively, the team has continued its struggles from a year ago, ranking 29th in the league in averaging 278.0 yards per game. St. Louis is 0-2 ATS off two straight division games.
The Rams are hoping that quarterback Sam Bradford can turn the corner, as he has a 78.6 passer rating, but it’s hard to imagine due to leading receiver Danny Amendola going down with a broken clavicle. St. Louis may need to win this game on the defensive end, which means containing Miami running back Reggie Bush, who has gained 139 yards on 22 carries in three meetings. The defensive unit sits 18th in the NFL in holding opponents to 117.2 yards per game on the ground.
Miami picked up a 17-13 win over the Cincinnati Bengals as three-point road underdogs last week, which snapped a two-game losing streak, with each of those setbacks coming in overtime. The Dolphins have been very pleased with quarterback Ryan Tannehill through five games, as the’s thrown for 1,269 yards on the season, becoming the first rookie in NFL history to pass for more than 1,250 yards and record at least two wins in his first five games. Wide receiver Brian Hartline has been his main target, leading the league in receiving yards with 514. Miami is 1-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, with the UNDER going 3-1 in those contests.
The Dolphins defense doesn’t get much notoriety, but it’s important to note that they haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in their last 19 games, while picking up 11 sacks in the their last two contests. Miami has won nine of 11 meetings in the series, including four straight when serving as host. The entire team is now focused on trying to get back to .500 heading into its bye week.
Sports bettors will likely back the Dolphins due to their 9-0 ATS mark versus teams with a winning record, while the Rams are 2-10 ATS on the road.
-Dolphins are 9-23 ATS at home off a upset win as an underdog
-Dolphins are 11-27 ATS after a two-game road trip
-Miami leads the NFL in limiting opponents on the ground per carry (2.6)
Detroit Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Detroit will look to snap its three-game losing streak after coming off a bye, as the team has failed to build off last year’s 10-6 season and playoff berth. “That’s our challenge right now to dig our way out of this,” stated Lions head coach Jim Schwartz. The Loins rank in the top 10 in both offense (third) and defense (ninth), but are finding more ways to lose games than they are finding ways to win them. One thing that needs to clean up is penalties, as the squad is averaging nearly eight per game over its previous three games. Detroit is 3-2 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points, with the OVER going 3-1 in that situation.
The Lions haven’t been able to run the football this year, which isn’t something new, ranking 24th in the league in that particular category. Detroit may potentially get running back Jahvid Best back in the lineup, as he’s been on the PUP list due to concussion issues. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown for just three touchdowns, but he’s still managing to find his main target downfield, with wide receiver Calvin Johnson ranking second in the league with 105.8 receiving yards per game.
Philadelphia has alternated wins and losses over its last four games, while going UNDER the total in three consecutive contests. The Eagles are coming off a disappointing 16-14 setback to the Pittsburgh Steelers as four-point road underdogs, but it served as their first against-the-spread victory of the 2012 NFL campaign. A bounce-back performance is certainly possible if the squad takes care of the football, as it will face a defense that ranks tied for last in the league with only three takeaways. Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS versus NFC North opponents.
The Eagles need to start getting after opposing quarterbacks, as they’ve tallied just seven this year after finishing last season tied for the league lead in that category. Philadelphia cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will likely cover Johnson for most of the game, as he limited him to three catches for 35 yards during his time with the Arizona Cardinals in 2009, while also notching two interceptions.
Sports bettors will likely back the Eagles due to their 4-1 ATS mark at home in this series, while the Lions are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games against NFC opponents.
-Eagles are 0-6 ATS versus NFC North teams
-Eagles are 5-10-1 ATS before a bye
-Lions 1-8 ATS when playing a team with a winning record
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