It's a stinky pick, alright, but the Bills plus the points are your best play today against the Patriots in Buffalo.
This is not going to be a popular pick. However, in the NFL, it becomes a very situational league on who covers and who doesn’t.
Just think of Tennessee last week as a 17-point underdog to Indianapolis. This is a situational play. Teams before going on a bye versus teams just off of a bye are 13-4 ATS. That improves even more so when the team going on a bye is off of a loss.
The key for Buffalo is to not turn the ball over. In their three ATS losses, they have a net turnover rate of -9. In their three ATS wins, the rate is +5. An extremely interesting system is to play on a home dog in a divisional game who is off of a straight-up loss on the road where they were favored. That system is 16-4 since 1993.
Sometimes you just have to hold your nose when you make a play in the NFL. Take the Bills +6 over New England.
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Jim Kruger: Bills +6 vs. Patriots
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