1. Minnesota-6 vs. Tennessee tease to 0. LOCK OF THE WEEK. I like this game on the spread too. Titans by far one of the worst teams in the NFL, facing a very real Vikings D with a well-earned record (recall week 3 upset vs. 49ers) particularly against the run. Locker also had shoulder injury last week vs. Titans. Only positive is that C. Johnson finally broke the slump and ran for 141 yards - much of it was during garbage time. K. Britt may be back for Titans but with little passing concerns Minny can stack against the run, and Johnson may well hit a brick wall once again.
2. Houston-7.5 at NY Jets tease to -1.5. Beautiful tease here with a top team vs a bottom team. Jets' luck has been getting worse and worse,losing D. Revis in Miami then S. Holmes injured and out indefinitely last week vs the 49ers. Jets were only able to put up 145 total yards after a complete shutout, I don't expect much improvement this week.
3. Denver +7.5 at New England tease to 13.5. Don't bet against Brady right? Don't bet against The General either. True, Manning does not seem to have the arm strength since his surgeries but even so, he's better than 90% of the QBs out there. Inducing penalties, game/clock management, etc. are all non-statistical considerations to account for. I think laying 3-6 points for the Pats is fair but 7+ is pushing it. Add 6 more and I think it's a slam-dunk. Pats D won't prevent Manning from keeping it close; Denver's 2 losses came from an undefeated Atlanta game (in Atlanta), and vs. an undefeated Houston team; Atlanta and Houston held off the Broncos fora combined 12 points. If Denver can fair that well vs. 2 top-3 ranked teams, they can keep it close vs. the Pats. NE is known for running up scores on opponents, especially weaker ones. Denver's D is respected, and they get Middle Linebacker Mays back after a one-game suspension.
4. Chargers+ 3 at Saints tease to 9. 3-1 Chargers face an 0-4 Saints team in the NO Dome. One consideration, Charger's record is overrated and Saints record is underrated. Saints this year have always kept it close. Chargers were challenged by 1 team (Atlanta) and got torched. Saints will be scoring for sure, but so will the Chargers. I expect a shootout but with the tease you should be safe.
5. Green Bay -7 at Indy tease to -1. The Packers won a nail-biter vs. the Saints last week and pulled back to 2-2, though we all know they should be 3-1. Saints have a horrible D but were slightly more respectable last week overall, particularly against the run. Packers still have misleading numbers this year – they've faced 3 of the best defenses in the league and finally got to show their stuff last week vs. the Saints. I expect them to put up a solid 27 vs. Indy. Colts are coming off a bye week and should be prepared but coach Pagano's sudden Leukemia diagnosis puts him out indefinitely and will shake up the coaching staff this week. Their defense is sub-par and Green Bay will take advantage. -7 is a fair number but teasing will be influential in this game.
Weak/No-Plays:
1. Miami+5 at Cincy tease to 11. This is a fantastic example of an underrated team (1-3) vs. an overrated team (3-1),which can result in an off number. Lots of variables not going into all but Miami giving up 300+ yards passing 3 straight games now. If Miami can keep some type of offense going they can stay within 11. Last week Hartline had the game of his life and Miami is not as bad as their record.
2. Philly+3.5, Tease to 9.5. Borderline game, lean no-play. Pitt has had a healthy week off with Mendenhall coming off injured list, whereas Philly had some injuries vs. Giants on Sunday including Vick which might limit his running ability vs. Steelers. Eagles priority last week was not turning over the ball. Both the Eagles and Steelers can score and Pitt has become an offensive passing machine. But Eagles D is respectable and they won't be able to have their way vs.the Eagles 2ndary.
3. Baltimore-4.5 tease to +1.5. Looove the matchup with Baltimore but can't tease past that zero. Chiefs having QB issues also.
Thoughts appreciated. GL if you take any teaser picks.
hou seems like a no brainer, they will continue the physical pounding sf just put on this nyj team...
i prefer teasing pats down in that one but honestly think it hits either direction....
balty playing a inferior opponent on road is always pass or fade imo and like you mentioned the tease really loses value where number currently sits, if you love balty ml parlay them with your min pick and it prob pays better...about minny im not sold, dont get me wrong i love what they doing but i still have doubts about a pass d that was absolutely torched last season and still only middle of the pack... im sure im in the huge minority here but i think ten is a lot better than ppl think and a lot of their struggles were the result of Locker being the starter in the 1st place as imo he simply not ready, team has talent all over the field and a above avg oline, hasslecrack got thrown into the fire against a very very good d last week and yes didnt preform but a week of practice with the ones and facing a d i think we can agree is no hou should help,,,this team needed a field general and while i understand going with locker as they have to see if he the future something tells me this group as a whole plays better with the old man under center..dangerous gm for the vikings imho..
in regards to superchargers i love teasing dogs but i prefer to do so in gms that i believe will be of the lower scoring variety and i certainly dont think this fits the bill,,i actually think sd could win this gm if they take mathews out of the doghouse and let him gash this saints porous run d, at same time they more than capable of letting this gm get away from them if they continue to drop passes in big spots and/or turn the ball over....
cant argue pack,,,,,they wont lose to indy....
need to see injury report in phi/pit gm but this certainly more my type of dog to tease as i believe this gm is much more of the low scoring variety,,my 1st time thru card i wrote down 21-20 but obviously still have work to do...i do feel like when you teasing dogs that are +3/3.5 you almost have to make it a 7 point tease and swallow a little juice as i hate sitting there w +9, im good with +7.5 +8.5 but after that i want to cover 10 before being stuck on +9/9.5..
all just really early thoughts as i just started diving into card late last night,,,mostly just initial reactions,,lot of homework to do as stats are actually becoming relevant now..
#1 - Haven't seen Minn play but it sounds like they are much improved. At home again, the tease to 0 sounds good though Tenn. will be playing Hasselbeck, who has the experience factor on his side and is still fairly quick in getting rid of the ball. Not concerned with CJ. Is Tenn's D bad? Maybe. They're playing with a loss of confidence but we don't know how motivated they could get to rise up but Minn. is a pretty foreign environ. Minn. 0 sounds good.
#2 - The Jets haven't shown anything that indicates they can win but they were embarrassed badly at home last week and don't want that to happen again. Since they are playing the best team in the NFL, this is their chance to rise up and show, though they may not have the personnel. Still ..... I'd stay away from this one.
#3 - Yes, I don't like betting against Brady but Denver +13.5 sure sounds good. Manning is still quick with the ball and even though they have to stick to mostly the short game and runs, they moved the ball against the Raiders. Not sure if we know how good Denver's D is. I actually like the under teased here to 58; Denver will either eat clock and keep it away from Brady or they will get stuffed because their offense doesn't have the deep threat. N.E. will play a more conservative offense with Manning on the other side and a decent Denver D.
#4 - Have followed the Chargers pretty closely for years, Not a Norv fan and I don't like his team going into the Dome Vs. an 0-4 N.O. but the one thing the Chargers should have going for them is N.O. being more demoralized than they are motivated to get their first W (but Brees always loves to beat his former team.) The problem here is that Norv has a tendency to call a 'scared' offensive game plan that usually doesn't allow his team to pull away, especially on the road (unless they get 6 turnovers.) The Chargers D has looked pretty improved but that might not matter against a Brees who is still as quick as anyone in getting rid of the ball. I'm leaning to taking N.O. -3 straight up.
#5 - G.B. sounds good on the tease when you factor in Indy's team, even though I like Luck. Still, this one feels a little funny as Indy should be as up as they are ever going to be for this one, at home Vs. the Packers and their coach being sick.
Hasselback moved the ball last week,believe it or not. I wouldn't use Vikes here. Britt should be back, CJ maybe mentally back into it. I do like Minny value this year, they still have, but not for tease this week my opinion.
Liking Miami and Eagles less and less. Miami D is looking more suspect than initially thought. Pitt is really getting back some beast players this week.
Week 5 Results: 4:1 on teams to tease including the lock of the week (primary team-teaser).
Three interesting points: (1) The only 2 bad picks came from teasing the same team, Green Bay so I will be much more cautious on them moving forward. (2) All three weak/no play mentions would have been winners. (3) I've heard that teasing 6 points typically affects 15-20% of all football games so it looks like I'm at least selecting the games with 6-point impacts (50% of week 4 picks and 60% of week 5 picks). I think I do need to work on selecting the correct side, however. We'll see how week 6 goes.
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