1. #1
    k13
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    Is this +EV "sucker bet" a Must Play?

    Book has a "special" three-team ml parlay every week on the NFL, usually public/popular teams all rolled in for 1pm/4pm/8pm games. Of course if you just rolled over the games yourself you would usually get a higher payout anyway. lol Anyway...

    They have Patriots/Packers/Eagles ml parlay = +300,

    Taking the best lines available at pinnacle only gives you around +260, someone correct me if I'm wrong.

    Would you play this?

  2. #2
    LT Profits
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    Yes, -185/-327/-126 works out to +261. But the Eagles will lose.

  3. #3
    Duff85
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    Yeah if they want to give away ev like that - i'm going to accept. They aren't smarter than the market as a whole. This is from someone who backs a lot of underdogs.

  4. #4
    dj_destroyer
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    If you were able to roll the profits, you could make almost 40% more than the +300 parlay. But since the games often overlap, this may be a decent look.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: k13

  5. #5
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Yes, -185/-327/-126 works out to +261. But the Eagles will lose.
    I actually like the Eagles if they stay favorites but you could always hedge the late game.

  6. #6
    k13
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    OK, I played it, at least I'll Mush the Patriots or Packers. That's a given.

  7. #7
    oddtodd
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    Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer View Post
    If you were able to roll the profits, you could make almost 40% more than the +300 parlay. But since the games often overlap, this may be a decent look.
    Explain. How would you make more than +300 if you "rolled the profits" what does that mean. Wouldnt that just get the exact same odds as a parlay which LT noted would pay +261?
    Last edited by oddtodd; 09-29-12 at 01:23 PM.

  8. #8
    Louisvillekid1
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    Pats scare me the most on that play...

  9. #9
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Pats scare me the most on that play...
    Agree.

  10. #10
    sneakerhead
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Pats scare me the most on that play...
    They will be the least of my worries, maybe Eagles.

  11. #11
    rumnblack
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    If you can beat the true odds play it, simple as that.

  12. #12
    NYSportsGuy210
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    Parlay ML the Bengals, the 49ers & the Saints.

  13. #13
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by NYSportsGuy210 View Post
    Parlay ML the Bengals, the 49ers & the Saints.
    Don't like that at all.

    If NE ML goes up later tomorrow, I might add a little more to this parlay.
    Last edited by k13; 09-29-12 at 04:44 PM.

  14. #14
    p19101
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    Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer View Post
    If you were able to roll the profits, you could make almost 40% more than the +300 parlay. But since the games often overlap, this may be a decent look.

  15. #15
    CanuckG
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    Eagles win.

  16. #16
    k13
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    Pinnacle right now = -205, -345, -135 = +234


    The +300 bet is at William Hill for the lucky ones.


  17. #17
    PAULYPOKER
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    Books used their DAOS play yesterday.........

  18. #18
    Goat Milk
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    looks like a winner

  19. #19
    Vinnie Paz
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    Damn will hill puttin out #s like that?

    Ima have to open me an account, i believe they have 100% signup bonus as well

  20. #20
    k13
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    This is actually still alive...should I hedge a little?

    I like the Eagles but greed kills.

  21. #21
    Allure
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    This is actually still alive...should I hedge a little?

    I like the Eagles but greed kills.
    Eagles will win

    U know that

  22. #22
    sneakerhead
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    ill hedge, cant trust Vick and the Eagles. Would hate to lose a parlay in this manner.

  23. #23
    GunShard
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    The public won Week 4.

    All the ML bets with -7 or greater won this week.

  24. #24
    NYSportsGuy210
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    Don't like that at all.

    If NE ML goes up later tomorrow, I might add a little more to this parlay.
    I meant Packers (not the Saints) duh. Just saw this.

  25. #25
    k13
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    I hedged.

  26. #26
    dj_destroyer
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    Public dominated today.

  27. #27
    k13
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    Line moves did well too.

  28. #28
    paco
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    Goodluck k13

  29. #29
    k13
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    Refs tried real hard there at the end.

  30. #30
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer View Post
    Public dominated today.
    7-5 for this weeks games

    Not sure if that is "domination".

  31. #31
    vaas187
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Yes, -185/-327/-126 works out to +261. But the Eagles will lose.

  32. #32
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer View Post
    If you were able to roll the profits, you could make almost 40% more than the +300 parlay. But since the games often overlap, this may be a decent look.
    Best post in this thread.

  33. #33
    Maniac
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    Have started seeing offers like this on a daily basis for different sports with a few Euro books lately, and have bet the odd one if I happen to like the teams they post and depending on the price - havent been blindly betting it though, but sounds like I may as well.

  34. #34
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maniac View Post
    Have started seeing offers like this on a daily basis for different sports with a few Euro books lately, and have bet the odd one if I happen to like the teams they post and depending on the price - havent been blindly betting it though, but sounds like I may as well.
    What other books did you see these kind of offers?

  35. #35
    Duff85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maniac View Post
    Have started seeing offers like this on a daily basis for different sports with a few Euro books lately, and have bet the odd one if I happen to like the teams they post and depending on the price - havent been blindly betting it though, but sounds like I may as well.
    Always check them against the no vig line.

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