[guy Fawkes]

Just did a little data mining on this young season and found an interesting statistic. Below are the games I found for home dogs since this season began and replacement refs were used (sorry for the lack of a table):

09/09/2012

New England -5 34 Loss Loss
Tenessee +5 13

Philadelphia -8.5 17 Win Loss
Cleveland +8.5 16

Atlanta -2 40 Loss Loss
Kansas City +2 24

Seattle -3 16 Win Win
Arizona +3 20

Carolina -3 10 Win Win
Tampa Bay +3 16

09/16/2012

Minnesota -3 20 Win Win
Indianapolis +3 23

Oakland -1.5 13 Win Win
Miami +1.5 35

New Orleans -3 27 Win Win
Carolina +3 35

Houston -6.5 27 Loss Loss
Jacksonville +6.5 7

Dallas -3 7 Win Win
Seattle +3 27

Washington -4 28 Win Win
St. Louis +4 31

09/23/2012

Buffalo -3 24 Loss Loss
Cleveland +3 14

San Francisco -6.5 13 Win Win
Minnesota +6.5 24

NY Jets -3 23 Push Loss
Miami +3 20

Detroit -4 41 Win Win
Tennessee +4 44

Philadelphia -3 6 Win Win
Arizona +3 27

Pittsburgh -3.5 31 Win Win
Oakland +3.5 34

Houston -1.5 31 Loss Loss
Denver +1.5 25

09/24/2012

Green Bay -3 12 Win Win
Seattle +3 14

Result:
ATS - 13-5-1
ML - 12-7

To reiterate those are all underdogs. Since the replacement officials have come on, any home dog has been covering the spread/pushing at a 73.7% rate and outright winning (again these are underdogs) at a 63.2% rate.

My theory is these officials are looking into the stands and realizing that the scab salary they are being paid is not worth pissing off the hundreds of thousands (millions on television) of people that are within throwing/shooting distance of them. It's easy to try to be the hero and make a call that will make those closest to you ecstatic and very hard to make the call that will make them enraged.

I'm not saying this trend will continue or that its foolproof, but I think it is worthy of mention.

Edit: Sorry I tried to make that readable, but I'm no SBR guru. If anyone wants to clean it up or let me know how I'd appreciate it.