Personally, I only try to hit the NFL when I have a good Saturday. For me, the NFL is gambling - NCAAF isn't. For the NFL, I look at Red Zone defense, Red Zone Scoring Percentage (Offense, TDs only) and for the most part try to fade the public (and of course check everything against injuries).
For what its worth I was on Miami, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Houston and San Diego today - fairly mixed results. I'm on Baltimore tonight, so we'll see just what I'm worth then
BTW, a great website for data mining these crazy figures is
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stats/ . I use it about everyday.