1. 09-14-12 10:07 PM #1
    Raffaele
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    Nfl: 2012

    My predictions are largely based upon a mathematical module that I created and use. For each and every game I apply what I think are the relevant factors of said game, resulting in a line. Based upon the discrepancy between my line and the book's line, I bet. Situational factors are also taken into consideration. I bet on every single total and spread last year and picked at 54.46%. Now that I have edited my module and have a better understanding of the business, I intend to make much less plays. I hope you follow me; you will not regret it!

    NFL Week 2:

    1* Carolina Panthers (+3) -115
    1* Miami Dolphins (ML) +120
    1* Miami Dolphins/Oakland Raiders: Over (38) -110
    1* Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) -105
    1* Detroit Lions (+7) -110
    1* Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) +125
    2* ML Parlay (-125) Patriots/Giants/Bengals
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  2. 09-14-12 11:15 PM #2
    TMoney33
    Sanchez Blows It: YES -2000
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    GL - I'll be on the Dolphin ML too.
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  3. 09-16-12 09:24 PM #3
    TMoney33
    Sanchez Blows It: YES -2000
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    Looks like you're having a helluva weekend. Nice work!
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  4. 09-16-12 09:52 PM #4
    Raffaele
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    Quote Originally Posted by TMoney33 View Post
    Looks like you're having a helluva weekend. Nice work!
    Thanks! Would have been nice to win my parlay, but I can't complain. Hoping the Lions can make me some more money here. Look for my Week 3 picks friend
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  5. 09-17-12 11:17 PM #5
    Raffaele
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffaele View Post
    My predictions are largely based upon a mathematical module that I created and use. For each and every game I apply what I think are the relevant factors of said game, resulting in a line. Based upon the discrepancy between my line and the book's line, I bet. Situational factors are also taken into consideration. I bet on every single total and spread last year and picked at 54.46%. Now that I have edited my module and have a better understanding of the business, I intend to make much less plays. I hope you follow me; you will not regret it!

    NFL Week 2:

    1* Carolina Panthers (+3) -115
    1* Miami Dolphins (ML) +120
    1* Miami Dolphins/Oakland Raiders: Over (38) -110
    1* Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) -105
    1* Detroit Lions (+7) -110
    1* Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) +125
    2* ML Parlay (-125) Patriots/Giants/Bengals

    Brutal losses. Falcons by a half point, Lions by 1 and the Pats get upset by 2.

    4-3
    -0.07
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  6. 09-19-12 04:52 PM #6
    Raffaele
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    51 not 51.5

    One play for now, expect more on Friday:

    1* New York Giants/Carolina Panthers: Under 51 (-115)
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  7. 09-19-12 04:58 PM #7
    Raffaele
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    With Nicks out of the picture, I expect the Panthers to focus on and limit Cruz. The Giants will be forced to run the football, which I would have expected them to do regardless to beat up a tired Carolina D. This obviously benefits the under. I don't foresee the Panthers having too much trouble putting up points and would have taken them had I been faster to react to Nicks being out, but I don't see the value now. Good luck!
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  8. 09-20-12 04:29 PM #8
    Raffaele
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    1* Chicago Bears (-7) -110
    1* Minnesota Vikings (+7.5) -120
    1* New Orleans Saints (-9) +106
    1* New England Patriots (ML) +125
    2* ML Parlay: Bears/Cowboys/Saints (-110)
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  9. 09-20-12 04:43 PM #9
    Raffaele
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    2* Oakland Raiders (+4.5) -110
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  10. 09-20-12 10:25 PM #10
    Raffaele
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffaele View Post
    One play for now, expect more on Friday:

    1* New York Giants/Carolina Panthers: Under 51 (-115)
    So, going into the week end I am...

    5-3
    +0.80
    Last edited by Raffaele; 09-20-12 at 10:33 PM. Reason: 5-3 not 4-4
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  11. 09-23-12 05:25 PM #11
    Raffaele
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    Live bet: *1 Eagles/Cardinals: Over (39.5) -120
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  12. 09-23-12 10:23 PM #12
    Raffaele
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffaele View Post
    1* Chicago Bears (-7) -110
    1* Minnesota Vikings (+7.5) -120
    1* New Orleans Saints (-9) +106
    1* New England Patriots (ML) +125
    2* ML Parlay: Bears/Cowboys/Saints (-110)
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffaele View Post
    2* Oakland Raiders (+4.5) -110
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffaele View Post
    Live bet: *1 Eagles/Cardinals: Over (39.5) -120

    8-7
    0.64

    Once again I take a bad beat (Saints) to lose my 2 unit parlay... Last week it was the Patriots missing a FG and now it's the Saints blowing a big lead and losing in OT. I don't regret the live bet. Well, glad to get the anger out of my system. Goddamn Patriots -_-
    Last edited by Raffaele; 09-24-12 at 04:39 PM.
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  13. 09-24-12 04:42 PM #13
    Raffaele
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    *1 Green Bay Packers (ML) -157
    *1 Green Bay Packers/Seattle Seahawks: Under (45.5) +100
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  14. 09-24-12 11:07 PM #14
    Raffaele
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    *1 Green Bay Packers (ML) -157
    *1 Green Bay Packers/Seattle Seahawks: Under (45.5) +100

    9-8
    0.64

    Nothing needs to be said
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  15. 09-26-12 06:50 PM #15
    Raffaele
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    1* Cleveland Browns (+14.5) -157
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  16. 09-26-12 10:31 PM #16
    Raffaele
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    1* New York Jets (+4.5) -110
    1* New Orleans Saints/Green Bay Packers: Over (53.5) -110
    2* Miami Dolphins (+7.5) -150
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  17. 09-27-12 10:25 PM #17
    Raffaele
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffaele View Post
    1* Cleveland Browns (+14.5) -157
    10-8
    0.00

    It's a fresh start going into the week end. Let's GO!
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  18. 09-30-12 12:31 PM #18
    Raffaele
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    1* Buffalo Bills (+10.5) -120
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  19. 09-30-12 01:01 PM #19
    Raffaele
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    2* New England Patriots (ML) -200
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  20. 09-30-12 04:35 PM #20
    Raffaele
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffaele View Post
    1* New York Jets (+4.5) -110
    1* New Orleans Saints/Green Bay Packers: Over (53.5) -110
    2* Miami Dolphins (+7.5) -150
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffaele View Post
    1* Buffalo Bills (+10.5) -120
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffaele View Post
    2* New England Patriots (ML) -200

    13-10
    1.24
    Last edited by Raffaele; 09-30-12 at 04:35 PM. Reason: Format
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  21. 10-01-12 05:44 PM #21
    Raffaele
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    2* Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) -120
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  22. 10-01-12 10:15 PM #22
    Raffaele
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffaele View Post
    2* Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) -120
    13-11
    0.76
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  23. 10-03-12 11:04 PM #23
    Raffaele
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    2* Pittsburgh Steelers (ML) -170
    1* Pittsburgh Steelers/Philadelphia Eagles: Under (44.5) -110
    1* San Diego Chargers/New Orleans Saints: Over (53.5) -120
    3* New York Jets (+10.5) -140
    1* New York Giants (-9.5) +100
    2* Tennessee Titans (+7.5) -130
    2* Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) -130
    2* Carolina Panthers (ML) -160
    4* New Orleans Saints (ML) -200
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  24. 10-03-12 11:16 PM #24
    Nick_U
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    Really liking your thinking this week bud. Im on almost exactly the same picks. Good luck
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  25. 10-08-12 10:47 PM #25
    Raffaele
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    2* Pittsburgh Steelers (ML) -170
    1* Pittsburgh Steelers/Philadelphia Eagles: Under (44.5) -110
    1* San Diego Chargers/New Orleans Saints: Over (53.5) -120
    3* New York Jets (+10.5) -140
    1* New York Giants (-9.5) +100
    2* Tennessee Titans (+7.5) -130
    2* Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) -130
    2* Carolina Panthers (ML) -160
    4* New Orleans Saints (ML) -200

    19-13
    3.30
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  26. 10-08-12 10:48 PM #26
    Raffaele
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick_U View Post
    Really liking your thinking this week bud. Im on almost exactly the same picks. Good luck
    Thanks Nick, hopefully it was a good week end for you as well!
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  27. 10-10-12 05:08 PM #27
    Raffaele
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    *3 Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans: Over (43) -110

    I handicapped this game as:

    Steelers (-5)
    Titans (47)

    On the over 43 we beat the KEY numbers 44 and 45 and have a rare 4 point discrepancy between my line and the book's line. I don't see any value on the spread (1 point discrepancy) or the MoneyLine (Far too high for Pitt and slightly too low for Ten).

    Pittsburgh: 26
    Tennessee: 21

    I advise everyone to tail!
    BOL
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  28. 10-11-12 04:39 PM #28
    Raffaele
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    *1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) -110
    *1 Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over (40) -110
    *1 St. Louis Rams @ Miami Dolphins: Under (37.5) +100

    Expect a play for MNF but that's it for Thursday & Sunday.
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  29. 10-11-12 10:42 PM #29
    Raffaele
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffaele View Post
    *3 Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans: Over (43) -110

    I handicapped this game as:

    Steelers (-5)
    Titans (47)

    On the over 43 we beat the KEY numbers 44 and 45 and have a rare 4 point discrepancy between my line and the book's line. I don't see any value on the spread (1 point discrepancy) or the MoneyLine (Far too high for Pitt and slightly too low for Ten).

    Pittsburgh: 26
    Tennessee: 21

    I advise everyone to tail!
    BOL
    20-13
    6.03
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  30. 10-14-12 05:55 PM #30
    Raffaele
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffaele View Post
    *1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) -110 Win
    *1 Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over (40) -110 Win
    *1 St. Louis Rams @ Miami Dolphins: Under (37.5) +100 Win

    Expect a play for MNF but that's it for Thursday & Sunday.
    23-13
    8.85
    Last edited by Raffaele; 10-14-12 at 09:01 PM. Reason: Font
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  31. 10-14-12 09:00 PM #31
    Raffaele
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    *1 San Diego Chargers (ML) -120

    Might be able to get a better price here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see RLM on this one tomorrow and have no problem laying -120 in this spot. My line:

    Denver Broncos (46.5)
    @ San Diego Chargers (-2.5)

    Unfortunately I was busy this week and handicapped the game today, missing the under 50 which I would have brought down to 49.5 at +100. Play the Chargers and enjoy the game!
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  32. 10-14-12 09:10 PM #32
    Raffaele
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    I'm 9-1 on the season betting totals and the 1 loss was the sole live bet I made this season. 10-6 ATS and 4-6 MoneyLine.

    That's 23-13 for 8.85 units.

    Lifetime I have picked ATS/Totals at 54.7%.

    I don't have very much money so I bet small, but I'd like to help the bigger betters here destroy the bookies. Week 7 I already see more value than in any other week this season. Follow me and you won't be disappointed.
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  33. 10-15-12 10:52 PM #33
    Raffaele
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffaele View Post
    *1 San Diego Chargers (ML) -120

    Might be able to get a better price here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see RLM on this one
    tomorrow and have no problem laying -120 in this spot. My line:

    Denver Broncos (46.5)
    @ San Diego Chargers (-2.5)

    Unfortunately I was busy this week and handicapped the game today, missing the under 50 which I would have brought down to 49.5 at +100. Play the Chargers and enjoy the game!
    Very frustrating loss...

    23-14
    7.85
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  34. 10-18-12 11:19 PM #34
    Raffaele
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    *1 Minnesota Vikings (-6) -110
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  35. 10-21-12 03:18 PM #35
    Raffaele
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffaele View Post
    *1 Minnesota Vikings (-6) -110
    24-14
    8.76
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