1. 09-12-12 10:37 PM #1
    frostno98
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    Squares plays usually win the first six weeks of Football

    Don't over analyze folks, and just go with the most obvious plays that makes sense early in this season. I have been fading the public the last 3 years, fading the unders, favorites, all plays the general average Joe in SBR likes, and lost miserably. Not understanding why Vegas was giving away free money yearly to the most squares of bettors. It's because the lines are very soft the first six weeks, before they catch on by November, where everything is sharp and a toss up.

    Hit hard early while it's easy and cash out, you won't be disappointed
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  2. 09-13-12 07:25 AM #2
    no gnu taxes
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    Quote Originally Posted by frostno98 View Post
    Don't over analyze folks, and just go with the most obvious plays that makes sense early in this season. I have been fading the public the last 3 years, fading the unders, favorites, all plays the general average Joe in SBR likes, and lost miserably. Not understanding why Vegas was giving away free money yearly to the most squares of bettors. It's because the lines are very soft the first six weeks, before they catch on by November, where everything is sharp and a toss up.

    Hit hard early while it's easy and cash out, you won't be disappointed

    Calling winning plays "square" plays is kind of ironic, to say the least. I think books would like to set lines so that bets are made evenly on both sides; they don't want to take risk. I think the entire idea of "fading" the public is a false premise anyway.
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  3. 09-13-12 08:34 AM #3
    k13
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    Public was 6-8 in Week 1 of NFL
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  4. 09-13-12 08:38 AM #4
    Reload
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    Wayne Root covers some of this in his book. It's thought that the books make it easier for favorites (and the public) to win in September so their confidence gets juiced up for the season. Then it's all lost back.
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  5. 09-13-12 09:56 AM #5
    RudyRuetigger
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    Books are winning so far this year
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  6. 09-13-12 11:19 AM #6
    thetrinity
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    books losing seasons all time in nfl 0
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  7. 09-13-12 11:25 AM #7
    Ghenghis Kahn
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reload View Post
    Wayne Root
    isn't this guy a tout?
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  8. 09-13-12 01:23 PM #8
    dredmahawkus
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    he is right...I have been betting football a long time....the obvious public plays win so much the first month of the season usually.....every year I bet all the favs first couple week then start playing the RLM plays and dogs....and I have done well the past couple season......this year however I have been getting killed!
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