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Week 1 Gold Picks
I have been making picks for years that I've sent out on a list serve to buddies, and they encouraged me to post them here.
Indianapolis (+10)
1) Andrew Luck - They don't come into the NFL any better than this. He is the total package, and I do not see his first NFL start or the Bears defense rattling him at all. He has all of the physical tools and can make all of the NFL throws, but he also as cerebral as they come. He knows how to read the defense, he knows the offense, he's comfortable with his weapons, and he simply does not get phased when something goes wrong. I don't think he is going to come out of the gates firing for 300+ with 3 touchdowns, but I think that he will stay within himself, limit the mistakes, and stay within the game plan. He may not single handedly win the game, but he certainly won't lose it.
2) Out with the Old - This isn't your 2011 (2-14) Colts. Only half of the Colts 22 Week 1 starters last season are still on the roster. This is a new season with a new coach, a new mindset, a new leader, and new goals. I don't think they turn it around completely, but this isn't Curtis Painter's team anymore.
3) Defense - This defense wasn't anything to write home about last year, but Chuck Pagano is now the head coach, and with him he brings a defensive mentality and a 3-4. He was the defensive coordinator of the Ravens from 2008-2011, and he knows how to slow down offenses. The 3-4 for Indy is very interesting. A lot of people say that it's a hard transition to go from a 4-3 to a 3-4, but you only need to look as far as the Houston Texans last year to see it can be done. Personnel is very important in a 3-4, and with Dwight Freeney who is 3rd among active players in sacks and Robert Mathis who has 9.5+ sacks in the last 4 years, I see Cutler wearing his pouty face by the 3rd or 4th quarter.
4) Urlacher - Brian Urlacher is the heart and soul of this team, but at 34 and coming off of two knee injuries in 7 months, how effective can he be? This is still a very solid defense that is anchored by Peppers, but I think Urlacher's age and knee will be exposed.
- The Bears win this one, but only by 4 points. Bears 27-23.
Jets (-3)
1) D-E-F-E-N-S-E-Defense, Defense, Defense! - I am removing emotion from this pick as I hate the Jets as an organization, but I think fans and the media are being swayed by Tebow and the preseason too much. The fact is, this is still a top 3 NFL defense led by Revis, Wilkerson, Scott, Pace, Scott, Cromartie, and Landry. Now this isn't the Jets of 2 or 3 years ago, but this is still a very solid unit. Hate him or love him, Rex Ryan knows defense, and I expect this unit to show up on Sunday.
2) East Rutherford - In the NFL, especially in week 1, home field advantage is huge. With the Jets getting 3 points for being at home, that means Vegas sees these teams as being even. I don't. The Bills made some nice aquisitions in the offseason, but they are still the Bills.
3) Fitzpatrick - The Bills stumbled to the finish line last year losing 4 of their last 5 games, and Ryan Fitzpatrick was a huge reason why as he totaled 9 INTs in the 5 losses. He's not a horrible quarterback, but he certainly isn't going to have a Wednesday night Romo-like performance and win this game on his own.
4) Tewbow - Again, hate him or love him, the dude is a competitor. I don't know how much he will play, but just the idea of him will force the Bills to be on their heels. The Jets were the best team in the Red-Zone last year, and even though they lost Buress, they now have one of the most surefire options in the RedZone now in Tebow. He's a wildcard, but I see him playing a role in the Jets win.
- Jets start the season 1-0. Jets 30-20.
New England (-5.5)
1) Brady - Enough said.
2) Belichick - Has won 8 straight season openers. He is LIV after losing a second Super Bowl to the Giants, and he is going to take it out on the Titans.
3) Hernandez & Gronk - This two headed monster has proven to be unstoppable, and defenses have not found an answer. The 2WR, 2TE, 1RB formation wreaks havoc on opposing defenses, and I don't see the Titans stopping it.
4) Welker - Like Belichick, he is super LIV about his costly drop in the Super Bowl loss to the Giants. Like Gronk and Hernandez, defenses don't have an answer for him, and I see him going for 100+ in this game.
5) Much improved defense - The Patriots would have walked away with the Lombardi Trophy last year if they had even a mediocre defense. Simply put, they were horrible on defense last year. The Patriots know this, and they addressed the problem by drafting Chandler Jones (who many consider to be the front runner for defensive rookie of the year) to apply pressure on the QB, and Dont'a Hightower out of Alabama to join Jerrod Mayo and shore up the linebacking core. Both of these draft picks will play a big role in containing the speed of Johnson and Locker. The defense doesn't have to be lockdown, they just need to be decent. Tennessee is improved, but with Locker at the helm and questionable weapons on the outside, I just don't see Tennessee matching New England's fast pace, fast strike offense.
6) Brandon Lloyd - As if Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez weren't enough for Brady...
- I don't see this as a complete blowout, but I do see New England winning comfortably 31-17.
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