1. 10-09-12 09:49 PM #71
    fitguy67
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    Quote Originally Posted by NYSportsGuy210 View Post
    Okay so only play games that have spreads of 4.5 or lower and fade the ESPN guys when 8 or more of the 12 are on a certain team SU.

    Got it.
    Sunde, Sneaker, et al.

    An excellent way to "operationalize" the "fade the public" principle...but some definitional (Sheldon Cooper-ish) wrinkles need to be ironed out...

    __________
    The teams to back are clear...the one's slagged by at least 8 of ESPN's 12 talking heads that are separated from their opposition by no more than 4.5points [by Pinny, for clarity] at the time of ESPN's going on record[more appropriate than the open, more opjective than "anytime after ESPN's calls"]

    but not so clear is is the best way to back them...seems to me there are four clear options here

    A)-->SU for all plays
    B)-->ATS for all plays
    C)-->a COMBINATION OF BOTH (sprinkled between ATS & SU positions [say, half/half by risk])
    D)-->a HYBRID approach, such as playing whichever option gives the "higher prob of winning" for each=
    *play dogs ATS (ie. using the + points to help us out)
    *play favesSU (avoiding the -ve points deficit to help us out...since we're only talking 4.5pts max the ml can't be too chalky vs. the spread on these)

    I lean toward option "D"
    ____________

    Comments welcome,
    Last edited by fitguy67; 10-09-12 at 10:23 PM.
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  2. 10-09-12 10:15 PM #72
    Sunde91
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    Original/primary picks have been SU. Not telling you to do anything or take ATS. It's an experiment to prove fades above all else. Sneaker gave ATS units one week and I started tracking it because I like to see how it compares vs SU. Answers question "would I be better off taking the points?" Not so far.

    Hybrid is interesting. dog ATS + fav ML vs dog ML + fav ATS. I think they have only taken a dog a couple times (Bills at Jets, sharp).
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  3. 10-09-12 11:31 PM #73
    fitguy67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sunde91 View Post
    dog ATS + fav ML vs dog ML + fav ATS.
    between
    D)-->higher win% HYBRID=dogs ATS + faves ML
    E)-->higher payout HYBRID= dogs ML + faves ATS

    the tradeoff is obvious...D) lower volatility
    E) higher volatility

    I'd suspect the very-long-term return to be in the same ballpark tho' (not just between D,E...but among all 5 options)...

    Probably best for someone to think about which way to play makes most sense to them (on the basis of both logic, and one's volatility tolerance/aversion)...then stick with it...changing your method invites Murphy's Law into things to piss you off

    Anyway you play 'em...going against the square-assed dipsticks should be money long-term...this is one of the most promising ideas to come down the pike...thanks Sunde

    arranged from smoothest (higher-win%/lower payout-per-win, thus least volatile, thus less painful if things don't "work" due to a patch of neg-variance) to bumpiest (lower-win%/higher-payout-per-win, thus most volatile, thus most profitable if things "work" due to a patch of pos-variance)
    [assuming thruout that most plays are dogs, of course]

    D) hi-win% HYBRID=Dogs ATS + Faves SU (both the "easy way")
    A) all ATS (dogs the "easy way" + faves the "hard way")
    B)COMBINATION [choose an ATS/SU "sprinkling formula" yourself and stik to it]
    C)all SU (dogs the "hard way", faves the "easy way")
    E) hi-payout HYBRID=Dogs SU + Faves ATS (both the "hard way")

    I suggest you take your pick and stick with it...myself, i find sport-betting, even if done as carefully as possible is a very hi-volatility proposition (much higher than stocks, for example)...and tend to see volatility as the enemy...so I will go henceforth with D) the highest win%/lowest-payout-per-win/lowest volatility format of this potentially +ev "slot machine"
    [...and use Pinny lines read as close as possible to the official release of the ESPN calls to unambiguously determine the plays for the given week ahead]
    Last edited by fitguy67; 10-09-12 at 11:35 PM.
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  4. 10-10-12 02:53 AM #74
    NYSportsGuy210
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    Can we get people here to put Colin Cowherd's NFL picks on here? I heard he was sharp.

    I wanna see if we fade ESPN based on this theory by Sunde91 and tail Colin Cowherd ATS how we end up doing.
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  5. 10-10-12 08:52 AM #75
    agendaman
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    cmon folks does anyone think a top echelon capper pays any attantion to espn wingnut analyst pks. of course not disclaimer rite this info. for entertainment purposes only square city
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  6. 10-11-12 07:24 PM #76
    paco
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    All 5 analysts picked the steelers. Does it continue?
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  7. 10-11-12 07:24 PM #77
    testertips
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    espn & cbs 100% on steelers
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  8. 10-11-12 07:27 PM #78
    sneakerhead
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    Quote Originally Posted by paco View Post
    All 5 analysts picked the steelers. Does it continue?
    Spread 4.5 and below Pac
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  9. 10-11-12 08:08 PM #79
    sneakerhead
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    This weeks picks which qualify:
    Browns
    Rams
    Lions
    Chiefs
    Cowboys
    Bills
    Seahawks
    Redskins
    Packers
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  10. 10-11-12 09:40 PM #80
    Full Time Hobo
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    All those teams?
    May be a public burial this week if this "system" is right

    Quote Originally Posted by NYSportsGuy210 View Post
    Can we get people here to put Colin Cowherd's NFL picks on here? I heard he was sharp.

    I wanna see if we fade ESPN based on this theory by Sunde91 and tail Colin Cowherd ATS how we end up doing.
    Cowherd's got a segment on his show on Fridays where he gets someone from Pregame to talk about his 5 picks of the week.
    He isn't shy about his gambling addiction
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  11. 10-11-12 10:22 PM #81
    paco
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    Looks like they all got the steeler game correct
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  12. 10-11-12 10:52 PM #82
    testertips
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    Quote Originally Posted by paco View Post
    Looks like they all got the steeler game correct
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  13. 10-11-12 10:54 PM #83
    paco
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  14. 10-12-12 02:22 AM #84
    sneakerhead
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    Had some free time so decided to check the record of games above 4.5 spread.
    Yea, it is much more obvious for them to pick the heavy favs but I recorded just to further affirm Sunde's theory and number.
    After tallying the totals, it can be concluded that anything over 4.5 is in negative overall, ml and ats both.
    I also would like to add a lot of gains were seen in the first three weeks with old refs but everything balanced out after that.

    Here it is further broken down for anyone who cares.

    Week 1 ATS +1.8 ML +1.58
    Week 2 ATS -1.3 ML +1.32
    Week 3 ATS +2.9 ML +3.7
    Week 4 ATS +.8 ML -5.00
    Week 5 ATS -3.5 ML -3.7
    Overall ATS -.3 ML -2.1
    Last edited by sneakerhead; 10-12-12 at 03:26 AM. Reason: grammar
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  15. 10-12-12 02:47 AM #85
    NYSportsGuy210
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    Can someone post Cowherd's picks too? He is usually the opposite of the ESPN analyst fade. Thanks.

    PS - I am guessing even though everyone of ESPN so-called "experts" had Pittsburgh to win tonight, the spread pick was a "no-play" becasue the line closed at (-5.5)? Am I right?
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  16. 10-12-12 03:03 AM #86
    NYSportsGuy210
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    Every analyst (12 of 12 plus the 2 out of 2 machines) picked the Arizona Cardinals to win straight up in week 6.

    Therefore I guess Buffalo (+4.5) is the play this week.

    Ten out of the 12 analysts took the Texans to win straight up in week 6 against the Packers.

    Therefore Packers (+3) is the play this week.

    Chiefs (+4.5) and Cowboys (+3.5) also qualify.

    Also Rams (+3.5) and Seahawks (+3.5).
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  17. 10-13-12 03:30 PM #87
    Full Time Hobo
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    Here are Cowherd's picks

    http://espn.go.com/espnradio/shows/c...ing-five-picks
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  18. 10-14-12 12:00 PM #88
    fataliz
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    should you work based on opening lines, or closing lines? some lines actually close above/below the 4.5 line this week...

    edit: i actually think you should play based on the opening lines since they made their picks based on the opening lines. thoughts?
    Last edited by fataliz; 10-14-12 at 02:53 PM.
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  19. 10-14-12 03:54 PM #89
    fataliz
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    4-1 on 1pm games , 2 winning SU, DAL nearly winning SU as well.
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  20. 10-14-12 07:43 PM #90
    sneakerhead
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    Good day so far,
    Browns ATS+ML
    Rams ATS
    Lions ATS+ML
    Chiefs lost
    Cowboys ATS
    Bills ATS+ML
    Seahawks ATS+ML
    Redskins ATS+ML
    Packers pending

    ATS 7-1 +5.9
    ML 5-3 +4.6
    Last edited by sneakerhead; 10-14-12 at 07:46 PM.
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  21. 10-14-12 09:56 PM #91
    sneakerhead
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    Quote Originally Posted by sneakerhead View Post
    Good day so far,
    Browns ATS+ML
    Rams ATS
    Lions ATS+ML
    Chiefs lost
    Cowboys ATS
    Bills ATS+ML
    Seahawks ATS+ML
    Redskins ATS+ML
    Packers pending safe to count it ATS+ML

    ATS 8-1 +6.9
    ML 6-3 +6.4
    Excellent day
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  22. 10-14-12 10:00 PM #92
    CanuckG
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    Zona are frauds Bills easy
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  23. 10-15-12 12:25 AM #93
    NYSportsGuy210
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    Quote Originally Posted by NYSportsGuy210 View Post
    Every analyst (12 of 12 plus the 2 out of 2 machines) picked the Arizona Cardinals to win straight up in week 6.

    Therefore I guess Buffalo (+4.5) is the play this week.

    Ten out of the 12 analysts took the Texans to win straight up in week 6 against the Packers.

    Therefore Packers (+3) is the play this week.

    Chiefs (+4.5) and Cowboys (+3.5) also qualify.

    Also Rams (+3.5) and Seahawks (+3.5).

    5-1 today....POW

    Also Colin Cowherd himself posted this for week 6:

    Atlanta -9
    Detroit +3.5
    Buffalo +4.5
    Jets -3
    Dallas +3.5

    He went 4-1 also now 20-10 hitting at 67% ATS for the year.
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  24. 10-15-12 01:07 AM #94
    GunShard
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    Colin Cowherd is actually a decent capper.
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  25. 10-15-12 01:37 AM #95
    MobFade
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    This was a great week for fading these guys, as a lot of NFL storylines seemed to come to a head. NYJ were in a downward spiral sparking weeks of QB controversy, Houston was the undisputed best team in football, Buffalo had just been buried against NE and SF in consecutive weeks, Romo only throws interceptions, etc. and Vegas cashed it in. Fading this type of conventional wisdom is how the NFL is bet IMHO, whether or not 8 of 12 or 12 of 12 ESPN analysts say so. Look at the headlines, look at what your gut is telling you about who should win these games, look at who your friends are picking and fade all of it. Wait for the line to run it's course throughout the week and watch where Vegas takes a side on these teams that don't have a shot. That is where the play is week in and week out.

    I guess I would just caution against getting into lock-step with a system like this based on arbitrary stuff like how many ESPN analysts pick a side, and just feel out where the public/media is at and fade their "locks", as the line should be pretty inflated on gameday.
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  26. 10-18-12 07:24 PM #96
    testertips
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    cbs - 5 outta 8 on seattle spread
    espn - 11 outta 12 on sf su
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  27. 10-18-12 07:44 PM #97
    GamblerSpirit
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    Quote Originally Posted by testertips View Post
    cbs - 5 outta 8 on seattle spread
    espn - 11 outta 12 on sf su
    Lmao ESPN kings of squares.
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  28. 10-19-12 01:28 AM #98
    sneakerhead
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    This week we got:
    Titans
    Bucs
    Panthers
    Jaguars
    Bengals

    Good luck!
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  29. 10-19-12 02:02 AM #99
    NYSportsGuy210
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    Quote Originally Posted by sneakerhead View Post
    This week we got:
    Titans
    Bucs
    Panthers
    Jaguars
    Bengals

    Good luck!
    Bengals and Bucs scare me though. Like the Titans. Panthers and Rams as dog picks to cover.
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  30. 10-19-12 08:18 AM #100
    GunShard
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    This is a nice way to fade the public.

    I been keeping track of another way to fade the public from Week 1 to Week 3.
    The ATS record by Week 3 on this style of betting went 10-4 ATS.

    When the next NFL season comes around. I should make a thread on it.
    I'll post the plays on a Friday or Saturday, because early and mid of a NFL week, the public will destroy each other.
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  31. 10-19-12 08:30 AM #101
    face
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    Quote Originally Posted by testertips View Post
    cbs - 5 outta 8 on seattle spread
    espn - 11 outta 12 on sf su
    6 out of 8 cbs guys were on sf straight up though. is the idea to fade the espn guys' straight up picks? they pick the -7 favorites to win straight up of course

    7 out of 8 CBS guys are getting killed ats this year, only one winning is clark judge
    Last edited by face; 10-19-12 at 08:48 AM.
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  32. 10-20-12 09:03 PM #102
    fataliz
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    ravens should be a pick too. the opening line was +4.5, and i believe these guys made their picks based on opening lines (their picks don't change throughtout the week as the lines move). Just my opinion.
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  33. 10-21-12 06:22 PM #103
    NYSportsGuy210
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    So far the system is 2-2 so far in week 7. With the Bengals game pending.
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  34. 10-22-12 07:32 PM #104
    paco
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    All 8 on espn panel picked Bears....
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  35. 10-22-12 07:33 PM #105
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by paco View Post
    All 8 on espn panel picked Bears....

    They usually all pick the favorites.
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