[bulichm]

CHI -500 and HOU -525 = 42.86% increase for the whole roll day one.

[Blackroc78]

[NardVa]

Should cash but I wouldn't suggest dumping your whole bank roll on the bet. There is always the possibility of a team losing even though it doesn't seem likely.

[bulichm]

Some historic data:

SU Favs of 1-3 pts 56% win rate
3.5-6.5 pts 67% win rate
7-10 pts 74% win rate
10.5-14 pts 80% win rate
over 14 99% win rate.

[Nittany Lion]

Every NFL team has the ability to beat anyone....except the Browns.... Jokes aside, last year the Chiefs beat the Packers with a brand new QB (Orton) and coach, and anybody remember the Saints losing at home to the Rams? Or the Redskins sweeping the Giants who then went on to win the Superbowl after beating the Packers/49ers to get there. Or the Ravens beating the Steelers twice, then they went on to lose each game after they played the Steelers, including bad teams like the Titans, Jaguars, and Seahawks. Or of course the most painful, Broncos beating my Steelers with a fullback as a QB and getting torched by a TD in the 1st play of OT. Then the Broncos go on to get slayed by the Patriots, a team the Steelers beat easily in the regular season. NFL is crazyyyyyyyyy, any given Sunday.


As for your parlay, I can't imagine the Colts with all their new personnel beating the Bears and the Dolphins are just bad, no way I see them going into Houston and beating the Texans. But every season there are land mines, teams that are heavy favorites lose all the time.

[agendaman]

buli /this is the nfl a whole new entity should cash BUT poor money management buli

[a4u2fear]

The bears aren't as Explosive as some of the better teams in the league, I could see them losing, but not betting on it

[arpeggiomeister]

I like the play. It takes a lot of brass to lay your entire bankroll on one bet. It will be a good boost if you win, but your out if something happens. I admire your conviction. Good luck

[arpeggiomeister]

The bears aren't as Explosive as some of the better teams in the league, I could see them losing, but not betting on it

I would not argue that point, but I think you are going to see a different Bears team this year. They went out and got Cutler some weapons. Their defense is nasty. I can see them making the playoffs.

[Mantle7]

Bottom line is that if you take your whole bankroll and PARLAY IT WEEK 1 you have zero chance of making money this season. If you're serious and you take you WHOLE bankroll and one of those teams brick...it happens... You'll be done for the season. Its just not worth it. I think people use the term bankroll loosely...Guess how often I want to put my roll up against the Houston Astros? Just about everyday but I have to be disciplined...

[briedward]

I like the play since the chance for upset is low given the home advantage. If you do the bet, you should bet no more than 50% of your bankroll, even if you have a time machine.

The only things to be aware: TEX are a powerhouse. CHI is not a powerhouse - sometimes they look great, sometimes not. The O-line for CHI has been awful the past year, so that is a risk. If you want a safe bet, only do texans at home - no way dolphins win.

As for colts, they might upset. Here's why: colts were capable of winning when orlovsky was qb instead of painter. If you add Luck to the equation, there is a small but real chance for an upset.

[chopperocker]

i recommend goin' with a NOR -450/HOU -550 2 teamer

i dont trust CHI they are 4-4 SUATS in week 1, 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS as week 1 Fav and 5-5 SU and 3-7 ATS as Home Fav vs Non-Division opponent. CHI is better as a Home Dog and Road Fav 11-4 SU and 9-5-1 ATS

However, even if you have a small bankroll that isn't neccesary to protect try not to go over 50% and have a little patience. we got opportunities galore for the next 4 months.

[qsilver335]

Both should hit, but any given Sunday in the NFL. Good luck!

[bulichm]

Every NFL team has the ability to beat anyone....except the Browns.... Jokes aside, last year the Chiefs beat the Packers with a brand new QB (Orton) and coach, and anybody remember the Saints losing at home to the Rams? Or the Redskins sweeping the Giants who then went on to win the Superbowl after beating the Packers/49ers to get there. Or the Ravens beating the Steelers twice, then they went on to lose each game after they played the Steelers, including bad teams like the Titans, Jaguars, and Seahawks. Or of course the most painful, Broncos beating my Steelers with a fullback as a QB and getting torched by a TD in the 1st play of OT. Then the Broncos go on to get slayed by the Patriots, a team the Steelers beat easily in the regular season. NFL is crazyyyyyyyyy, any given Sunday.


As for your parlay, I can't imagine the Colts with all their new personnel beating the Bears and the Dolphins are just bad, no way I see them going into Houston and beating the Texans. But every season there are land mines, teams that are heavy favorites lose all the time.

I do respect all of the who caution "this going for it all" type of attitude. I do remember those bad beats as you have listed (Rams were the home team- NO went 8-0 at home SU & ATS last year). I have a further breakdown that I will post as soon as I finish that shows how to avoid a lot of these types of games.
As far as PIT losing to DEN I recall telling my wife not to expect much out of them (she is a PIT fan as well) being they were really in bad shape by the end of the season.

[bulichm]

I have followed, won and lost money on ml wager systems/approach in the past. But like most things you can"t just jump in and expect good results (like driving a car), there is a learning curve to every type of wager system or money management system. Some people swear by the Jim Morris system.

Part of the way I wager,being a 5 card player, is pushing the chips to the middle of the table. Most of the time in these situations, because my basic MM system calls for breaking my BR down into 4 parts and using only one part until it is gone or has doubled, my whole roll is not in jeapordy. Funny that Mantle7 mentioned the Houston Astros, because it was against them on the road I won 2 of these bets this year. So when I saw the opening lines for the NFL this season I felt like I was dealt a very good hand.

My outlook:

CHI vs IND- Was the Bears OL that bad or was it the Mike Martz 9 step drops that required holding up longer. We will find out soon. Either way they were looking like a serious playoff contender. Will their aging D hold up for the season- doesn't matter, this is the first game of the year. Playing at home with something to prove and some favorable upgrades of their own vs a team with way TOO many new parts (driving the car example above) in my humble opinion this is a ATS blow-out.

HOU vs MIA- Could leave this at "nuff said". The best thing they(MIA) have going for them is their D. So unless the wheels fall of the Hou O because of the OL free agent losses, and a rookie QB (MIA)and poor WR's with a less than stellar running game vs what should be a top 10 D well then I guess the "any given sunday " rule does apply. otherwise this is another ATS blow-out.

DET vs STL- You must always proceed with caution any time you have 2 coaches who were on the same team and now pitted against each other. Both teams seem to have OL problems and strong DL's and good QB's. The main things that seperates them (DET) are Megatron and this is their 4th year together and they have been showing steady improvement each year. The only reservations I have in not calling this another ATS blow-out is not that they(STL) showed promise 2 years ago,and if you listen to the talking heads on ES** that last years team would have been competitive if it was not for the massive injury list and coupled with a new fantastic coaching staff ( I do agree the coaching staff is above average, even top 10) will make them very competitive this year. Lets not forget that 2 yrs ago when they almost won their division they finished at 7-9 in the NFC West when that division was total crap, and also lost to DET as an away team 6-44 being a 3pt dog. All of this spells blow-out to me but Fisher being familiar with Schwartz and his ability to make some real boneheaded calls at times. So ATS looks like a 55-45 proposition and a 87.5% or better win.

NO vs WAS- I like the Drew Brees and their ability to put up points, also their 8-0 record at home SU & ATS.
Even though I think that they are in the 87.5% to win SU I shy away from Favs with too much change vs oppisition that coud range from a breakout year to a solid .500 team.

Other games I like to win are DEN (PIT OL the reason),SEA (Too much D and a running game for ARI),PHI (were a consideration for ml parlay but I have better options,I even believe they could cover the spread as well).

[chopperocker]

I do respect all of the who caution "this going for it all" type of attitude. I do remember those bad beats as you have listed (Rams were the home team- NO went 8-0 at home SU & ATS last year). I have a further breakdown that I will post as soon as I finish that shows how to avoid a lot of these types of games.
As far as PIT losing to DEN I recall telling my wife not to expect much out of them (she is a PIT fan as well) being they were really in bad shape by the end of the season.

didnt hurt either that Roethlisberger had a broken foot, the Super Bowl Loser is 2-6 SU 2-5-1 ATS in the following years playoffs and goin' back to '02 at least 1 Wildcard Fav has failed to Win/Cover per season(HOU, NOR and NYG all had the Win/Cover). algorithm's?

[Cover4]

Risky but hope you cash gl,

[bulichm]

Chopperocker Good stats, will keep an eye on that at the end of season.

PIT did have too much to overcome even against the lowly Broncos that game.

[EdV38]

This has so much bad karma associated with it I'm considering a small ML bet on Indy and Miami lol

[chopperocker]

Chopperocker Good stats, will keep an eye on that at the end of season.

PIT did have too much to overcome even against the lowly Broncos that game.

Super Bowl Winner has also been an auto-fade in playoffs in recent years. if u recall Green Bay losing SU as a -9 Home Fav to NYG.

[JD426]

Some historic data:

SU Favs of 1-3 pts 56% win rate
3.5-6.5 pts 67% win rate
7-10 pts 74% win rate
10.5-14 pts 80% win rate
over 14 99% win rate.

So based on these percentages you realize that you have a 64% chance that both teams win. Not sure I'd want my whole bankroll riding on that, especially at -200

[bulichm]

Super Bowl Winner has also been an auto-fade in playoffs in recent years. if u recall Green Bay losing SU as a -9 Home Fav to NYG.

Yes I recall, it was a sad day for lots of people. Fortunately my son and I were wagering with either a SB rematch or brothers vs one another, just playing which way would be a bigger draw. Sad part was I played NE in the final gm.

[bulichm]

So based on these percentages you realize that you have a 64% chance that both teams win. Not sure I'd want my whole bankroll riding on that, especially at -200

This is true with the raw %'s that were posted. But I have more in-depth info that I will be showing that suggest that you can increase your odds while picking ML games.

[chopperocker]

Yes I recall, it was a sad day for lots of people. Fortunately my son and I were wagering with either a SB rematch or brothers vs one another, just playing which way would be a bigger draw. Sad part was I played NE in the final gm.

ya, i was on NWE ml in the SB. was ok though cuz i cashed all other playoff tickets including the wrong side winner NYG +2.5 @ SFO. i will be watching ur posts. nothin' wrong with a 40% to 60% gain on these types of tickets. i dont re-up, i grind it out.

gl !

[GunShard]

I personally would make the maximum bet to 10% of bankroll, another said 50% of bankroll in this thread which is also more reasonable than 100%.

You should be able to win this, but I would avoid going "all in" in your next bet.

My personal rules on sports gambling:

1. Bankroll money management and Kelly Criterion. You should only be betting 1% to 10% of your total bankroll. Be discipline.
Kelly Criterion basically says to bet large on -110 and bet small on -500, and bet large on a straight bet, bet small on a parlay bet.
2. Do your research by watching game footage, finding useful trends and useful statistics.
3. Never bet on heavily juiced lines. Like a line at -1000 for example.
4. Never bet on heavily valued lines. Like a terrible team at 100 to 1 odds to win championship.
5. Teams with home field/court advantage tend to win games.
"Whoever is first in the field and awaits the coming of the enemy, will be fresh for the fight;
whoever is second in the field and has to hasten to battle will arrive exhausted." -Sun Tzu, the Art of War
6. Be a strategic gambler by picking your spots and wait for the right opportunity. Never be an impulsive gambler by betting for the action, just because it feels good or it's your favorite team. Patience is virtue.
7. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.
8. Parlays should be no longer than 2 teams, the bigger the parlay is, the bigger the House Edge. Research and Secure your first pick before moving on to your second pick.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89HtJmQgjww
9. Teasers should never pass through the zero.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP3P9OJvukQ
10. Never bet on double digit road favorites. You will lose in the long run.
11. Always make your bet near game time. Players could get injured during the week before game time.
12. Sportsbook have an edge on the NFL than the NCAAF because they can focus on the 32 NFL teams but cannot focus on the hundreds of NCAAF teams.
13. Never deposit money for sportsbook bonus money that requires rollover. You are immediately juiced before you even placed your first bet.
14. Never bet on preseason games on any sport. Predicting a 2nd string and 3rd string team is stupid.
15. If you are extremely impulsive, arrogant and biased. The best advice is to "Don't Gamble".
16. Never gamble if you are drunk, sleepy, hungry, depressed or angry.
17. Moneyline favorites are more likely to win than Moneyline underdogs. Favorited lines are juiced because of this reason.
18. Learn from your mistakes. Most gamblers don't learn from their mistakes. That's why I made these gambling rules.

[illisdre]

Hi GunShard,
I like your rules.
But I take a different opinion on a few.

8. Parlays should be no longer than 2 teams, the bigger the parlay is, the bigger the House Edge. Research and Secure your first pick before moving on to your second pick.
I think thats true if your playing standard 1.91 odd pointspread. But sometimes I have plays where I feel I have the advantage. If I feel I have the edge on 3 games, Ill parlay it 3 teams I can make some serious coin. That said Im risking 0.5% bank roll.

14. Never bet on preseason games on any sport. Predicting a 2nd string and 3rd string team is stupid.
I take on randomness. These games may have the favorite weighted tooo heavily. So if I think that might be the case, Id consider dogging it.

13. Never deposit money for sportsbook bonus money that requires rollover. You are immediately juiced before you even placed your first bet.
Ive had some great experiences with quality bonuses. From WilliamHill and Bet365 100%. Ofcourse Im not talking bank rolls of 1000s, more like 100s. But they were great. That said, most bonuses are not great, and i signed up with one recently for bonus change - odds were 10% more juice.

But great list.

[face]

that's two games, games with fumbles and interceptions. i would pick a good night and fade the astros for -187. it's only one game and they lose 2 out of 3 games. just my two cents. pirates probably not the team to do it with though

[Shaka Smart]

Lets Try:

Chi -450
Phi -400
NO -350
NE -240
Tex -700
Det -335
GB -240

[bulichm]

Lets Try:

Chi -450
Phi -400
NO -350
NE -240
Tex -700
Det -335
GB -240

For me the jury is out on NE and NO till they get a few games into the season. GB game looks like a very solid match-up and both teams have something to prove.

[arpeggiomeister]

I have followed, won and lost money on ml wager systems/approach in the past. But like most things you can"t just jump in and expect good results (like driving a car), there is a learning curve to every type of wager system or money management system. Some people swear by the Jim Morris system.

Part of the way I wager,being a 5 card player, is pushing the chips to the middle of the table. Most of the time in these situations, because my basic MM system calls for breaking my BR down into 4 parts and using only one part until it is gone or has doubled, my whole roll is not in jeapordy. Funny that Mantle7 mentioned the Houston Astros, because it was against them on the road I won 2 of these bets this year. So when I saw the opening lines for the NFL this season I felt like I was dealt a very good hand.

My outlook:

CHI vs IND- Was the Bears OL that bad or was it the Mike Martz 9 step drops that required holding up longer. We will find out soon. Either way they were looking like a serious playoff contender. Will their aging D hold up for the season- doesn't matter, this is the first game of the year. Playing at home with something to prove and some favorable upgrades of their own vs a team with way TOO many new parts (driving the car example above) in my humble opinion this is a ATS blow-out.

HOU vs MIA- Could leave this at "nuff said". The best thing they(MIA) have going for them is their D. So unless the wheels fall of the Hou O because of the OL free agent losses, and a rookie QB (MIA)and poor WR's with a less than stellar running game vs what should be a top 10 D well then I guess the "any given sunday " rule does apply. otherwise this is another ATS blow-out.

DET vs STL- You must always proceed with caution any time you have 2 coaches who were on the same team and now pitted against each other. Both teams seem to have OL problems and strong DL's and good QB's. The main things that seperates them (DET) are Megatron and this is their 4th year together and they have been showing steady improvement each year. The only reservations I have in not calling this another ATS blow-out is not that they(STL) showed promise 2 years ago,and if you listen to the talking heads on ES** that last years team would have been competitive if it was not for the massive injury list and coupled with a new fantastic coaching staff ( I do agree the coaching staff is above average, even top 10) will make them very competitive this year. Lets not forget that 2 yrs ago when they almost won their division they finished at 7-9 in the NFC West when that division was total crap, and also lost to DET as an away team 6-44 being a 3pt dog. All of this spells blow-out to me but Fisher being familiar with Schwartz and his ability to make some real boneheaded calls at times. So ATS looks like a 55-45 proposition and a 87.5% or better win.

NO vs WAS- I like the Drew Brees and their ability to put up points, also their 8-0 record at home SU & ATS.
Even though I think that they are in the 87.5% to win SU I shy away from Favs with too much change vs oppisition that coud range from a breakout year to a solid .500 team.

Other games I like to win are DEN (PIT OL the reason),SEA (Too much D and a running game for ARI),PHI (were a consideration for ml parlay but I have better options,I even believe they could cover the spread as well).

You have obviously given this some thought and there is a method behind what you are doing. I admire your brass. When playing roulette, the best chance you have to double your money is to go all in on say black for example. The more you play, the more the house bleeds you dry. As long as you are aware of the risk and have made peace with the consequences than go for it. I hope you win.

[p19101]

Lets Try:

Chi -450
Phi -400
NO -350
NE -240
Tex -700
Det -335
GB -240

really?

[meader99]

The only thing I would be worried about is that the Bears have a trip to Green Bay on Thursday. Big look ahead possibility with a team that made wholesale changes and starting a rookie qb. May not affect the ML, but a strong possibility of a Colt cover.

[Shaka Smart]

really?

You better believe it.

[bulichm]

Just wanted to put it into the record what I really did. First of all I started the MLB season with a $200.00 BR,by All star break I was siting at $150.00 and decided to change my wagering approach. That is to play it like a poker game (5 card stud) and if I felt really good about a situation to push a lot of chips to center of the table. I know all the pros say don't do this, but with the size of my roll it's plain to see I'm not doing this for a living. So with the new approach my BR increased to $500.00.............. Then when the lines came out for the NFL the IND-CHI game caught my eye and I was thinking that if that line stayed that way till kick off I'd bet my whole BR on it. So I made a bet and then started this thread based on a more conservative bet. What I really did was bet $400.00 on CHI ml -500, HOU -525, and DET -400 for a pay out of 314.29.
It's been a long 10 days waiting for tommorow. IT JUST LOOKS LIKE A GOOD HAND TO ME.

[tshafer117]

The thing is sports aren't poker, and good cards don't always win. I like your approach on this, but it's risky. Week one of the football season is the worst time to bet big favorites, it takes until about the 2nd quarter to really get in the rhythm of the game. And by that time, the other team can get lucky. If betting all the -400 teams was easy, everyone would do it. The problem is, your not getting a good enough return on your money. In the NFL it's hard to win one game betting, the casino loves when you try and pick 3. Remember every Sunday something crazy happens, and when you have all the favorites, something happens to you. I'm hoping you win, I really am, but just make it a one time thing. Andrew Luck could come out and really impress everyone. Do you really think the Bears have the advantage at QB? I don't think they do, the defense is a different story. That's the problem though, it's like betting on a good pitcher, they can pitch great and your team still might not score runs. Houston seems to be the best bet, I really can't even see them scoring 10 points in the whole game. That receiving core in Houston is going to score a lot. With Detroit, it's another risk. They had a great year last year, but it's still Detroit. St. Louis has a good run game, and a good young quarterback, and I think there defense is much improved. I honestly think you will win 2/3, I would have just bet all your 500 on one of those teams, getting a 20 percent return. Good luck though, hope you cash. I'm on Chiefs, Jaguars, Bills, and Arizona. Can go 2-2 and still make a profit.