1. #1
    bobbyk1133
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    NFL "Trends" are dying...

    Over the last couple of years betting trends were never more helpful than in the preseason. Coaching trends usually had strong correlations with their approach to the games and certain games were pretty much free money. Yet, more and more I'm seeing traditional trends go the way of the Dodo.

    LT wrote a good article outlining the preseason here ..

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/nfl-football...guide-a-25482/

    ..but things haven't gone according to plan. Shanahan, Tomlin, Schwartz, and McCarth are no longer blind follows just like Reid is no longer a blind fade in the NFLX. Totals in Week 3 historically averaged 39 points, but when they were posted this year they were blindly bet over across the board. The days of backups not being able to come in and move the chains are long long gone. So far this preseason overs are hitting at 57% clip.

    He wrote another article about betting "unders" in Week 1 of the regular season...

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/nfl-football...-year-a-25740/

    The same thinking took place last season and unders were a popular trend to ride entering the season, but it was overs that reigned supreme and the overs continued to hit until books properly adjusted weeks later. The notion that "defenses start ahead of the offenses" is dinosaur thinking. The new CBA has put such a restriction on tackling and full pads hitting in practice that defenses are not progressing as well as yesteryear. Combine that with new rules restricting defenses in the games along with the ability for new QBs to make an easier transition into the NFL and it's no surprise that "overs" are the new way to go.

    This isn't a personal attack on LT cuz I respect his capping, but it's getting harder and harder to stomach outdated trends that no longer apply to today's NFL. If you're betting Week 1 unders based on blind trends then you just aren't paying attention ... and look at last year if you want a history lesson.

    I simply used these articles as examples. I've got burned using a few situational trends this preseason as well. There are hundreds of other "trends" that pop up on these forums and other betting sites with next to no supporting rationale or basis in reality. My point is just be careful when looking to trends for the upcoming season. The same applies to things like RLM, underdogs, home dogs on MNF, etc etc. Anything that goes back more than 5 seasons is likely useless and that's probably a generous window.

    Again...no disrespect to LT. He's one of the few cappers on SBR that I value for an opinion.

    [Rant over...resume regularly scheduled programming....]

  2. #2
    arpeggiomeister
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    Really good post. The thing about any kind of trend is when the Joe Square (guys like me lol) catch on and begin riding it the trend reverses.

    I have read that I am supposed to ride the dogs especially early in the season, but I have had success doing the opposite. Maybe it was just lick on my part, but I think teams come in undervalued in the early weeks and Vegas adjusts when things get rolling.

    There are several things that I have my eye on that are going to make the league different than years past. Andrew Luck QB for the Colts. Will he go the way of Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, etc. and have a good opening season or can we fade the Colts? Will RGIII make an impact on the Redskins?

    Will the Saints Defense be weaker with Bountygate. I am thinking that overs may be a good bet with them. If Drew Brees has to carry the load then there may be several shootouts.

    Kickoff returns for touchdowns are virtually non-existant due to the fairly recent rule changes.

    I respect LT too. He is a sharp cat. Change is inevitable though. Good rant.

  3. #3
    bobbyk1133
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    Thanks.

    Here is a good article raising the issue...

    http://www.beyondthebets.com/nfl-wee...11-an-outlier/

    Personally, I don't think last year was an "outlier", but a sign of things to come...

    We'll see how it shakes out.

  4. #4
    therushishere
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    I was pretty deep into fantasy football a while ago and took several years off. As I get my mind back around it, it really is astonishing how many QBs and WRs there are that have a good chance at putting up big numbers this year.

    You start off with the traditional big 3: Brady, Brees, Rodgers
    Then you have Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford. We all know what Vick and the Mannings can do. Matt Ryan has 2 top 10 receivers this year. Romo, Rivers, Cutler, and Roethlisberger are all capable of big time numbers and have the right surroundings too. Matt Schaub has the weapons to repeat or improve upon his 09-10 numbers and nobody wants to talk about him. Flacco has the years and experience under his belt and quality options all around the field. Carson Palmer finally has a good situation with the fastest WRs in the game who finally appear to be maturing, a top RB and a coordinator who will make life easy for him. Matt Cassel is an underrated former Pro-Bowl QB. Luck and RGIII might be the most talented 1-2 rookie QB class in NFL history. Andy Dalton is a Pro-Bowl QB with a top 5 receiver and an OC whose last names Gruden. Thats 20 deep and there are 2-3 more guys I like after that too.

    People talk about how deep the WR class is in FF this year, but it really is a testament to the QBs and the passing games around the league.

  5. #5
    k13
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    There are trends and there facts....

    Team x is 12-4 vs Team y when playing at home when the sky is purple are irrelevant trends.

    Sample size is another thing most people forget.

  6. #6
    hubie69
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    I think to an extend some trends are dying as the league is changing. The rule changes are one thing contributing to this, also the league turning pass happy contributes to this. As some trends die, new ones will emerge.

  7. #7
    k13
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    Try using "trends" based on "markets", they will never go out of date because it is based on the current situation/game.

    The average person does not have access to that data at the snap of the fingers even with the internet because it is tedious work but very valuable.

    I'll post some popular ones later.

  8. #8
    bobbyk1133
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    Despite inflating the average line up 3 points..overs still went 8-6. Without the adjustment, likely 10-4.

    GL to anyone using old 'under' strategies...may the force be with you.

  9. #9
    bobbyk1133
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    Yet another article reiterating the change in trends...

    http://www.beyondthebets.com/death-o...ion-on-totals/

    Hope you dinosaurs out there are paying attention.

  10. #10
    bobbyk1133
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    Another over cashes making them 9-6 for Week 1 with SD/OAK pending...

    It's only 1 week, but I'm confident in saying 2011 wasn't an 'outlier' season.

  11. #11
    k13
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    Overs were big in the first half last year too then it evened out and was basically 50/50 for the year.

    I don't really bet totals often unless I see a really good spot I like.

    Guess all these super bowl trends are over with now.....

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