[PicksGuy]

1. Teams that won 6 games or LESS the previous year, in the first game next season cover the spread 55% of the time.
   
   1. Miami, Buffalo, Cle, Jags, Indy, Wash, Minn, Car, T.B. , St Louis.
   
   
2. Teams that won 12 or MORE games the previous year are a mere 41% ATS in the first game next season.
   
   1. NEW Eng, Pitt, Bal, G. Bay, 49ers, Saints
   
   
3. In September, when the total is set at 45 or HIGHER, it goes UNDER 59% of the time. (60-88-2 o/u , since 2005)
   
   1. Week 1 where this applies -Saints vs Wash (49.5) - New Eng @ Tenn (47.5) - Det vs StL (46.5) - 49ers @ G. Bay ( 45) - S.D. @ Oak (47.5)

1. In September, NFC East Teams, on the road, playing as an underdog are 15-6 ATS (71%) and 14-6 OVER (70%) , since 2005
   
   1. Week 1 where this applies: Cowboys +3.5 @ NYG , Wash +9 @ N.O

-NFLPicksGuy

[bobbyk1133]

For a trend to be useful you need to be able to explain the rationale and reasons why they are trends. 1 and 2 are obviously over/undervaluing of teams based on previous years, but trend 3 is completely irrelevant to how the NFL game is today. Totals are a completely different animal now. The final trend is simply absurd.

[2daBank]

bobby is right, totals a whole new ballgame in this new pussyfied nfl...that said det/stl under has serious potential (as will many lambs unders), id imagine stl d will be pretty underrated by most but this should be a strong unit, jenkins was best corner in draft and rams stole him because of off the field bs, also added some toughness at corner via free agency (for whatever reason cant think of that dude that came over from titans right now but you know who im talking bout), jury out on how improved the run d will be but lets face it det cant run and rams will be able to get pressure..on offense it no secret fisher likes to run and really has no other option as that oline will get eaten alive by det front if they dropping back to pass very often.. think the 46.5 is slightly high and would think with det being involved it may get up over 47 which be a nice bonus that i dont think will be needed..

[TheStone25]

Bobby I disagree with your assessment of trend #3 - I think the point is that when two "scoring" teams play early in the year, they don't produce as much as the public thinks. Defenses come out of camp more prepared and in rhythm than the offenses do, hence more unders early in the year. That Trend carries a lot of logic to me. And it is from 2005, not 1980.

[bobbyk1133]

Bobby I disagree with your assessment of trend #3 - I think the point is that when two "scoring" teams play early in the year, they don't produce as much as the public thinks. Defenses come out of camp more prepared and in rhythm than the offenses do, hence more unders early in the year. That Trend carries a lot of logic to me. And it is from 2005, not 1980.

With all due respect, have you watched the NFL in the last few years? Cuz if you have 2005 will seem like 1980. The public is irrelevant as well. As well as dogs vs favorites, RLM, and countless other dinosaur stats and trends that don't apply anymore.

[TheStone25]

The public is irrelevant as well. As well as dogs vs favorites, RLM, and countless other dinosaur stats and trends that don't apply anymore.

-I think I see your point, but explain to me what you mean by the public is irrelevant? Since you are on a betting forum I assume that you are aware that the public perception of two teams is what sets the lines, not an actual projection. That's why we say things like "finding value" because what we do as bettors is try to find that gap between the line (public perception) and reality. Anyway, I would love for you to find some trends that do not involve dogs, favorites, or things that involve public perception, and I will gladly discuss with you if they are useful trends or not. But that's the great thing about betting, it's up to you what useful or irrelevant. I just can't justify calling the public / dogs / favorites irrelevant.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Believe the 1st 3 trends to be revelant, and the last one not to be. I think it makes sense that sometimes the totals are set too high to open the season based on public perception. Will take a look opening week and might apply some of these trends.

[bobbyk1133]

Since you are on a betting forum I assume that you are aware that the public perception of two teams is what sets the lines, not an actual projection. That's why we say things like "finding value" because what we do as bettors is try to find that gap between the line (public perception) and reality. Anyway, I would love for you to find some trends that do not involve dogs, favorites, or things that involve public perception, and I will gladly discuss with you if they are useful trends or not. But that's the great thing about betting, it's up to you what useful or irrelevant. I just can't justify calling the public / dogs / favorites irrelevant.

Sharp $$ dominates the markets, not the public. The days of betting the favorites early and waiting for the dogs late is a thing of the past. Nowadays, if there is value on opening dogs they will get hit right away as well. Therefore this is much less difference between which side has "general value" anymore.

The vast majority of public bettors are placing bets on Friday-Sunday (and that's a generous window) and by that time the lines have been whipped into shape. You're not going to find universal agreement on my claims, but some people are stuck in yesteryear still clinging to old principles and beliefs....and things are continuing to evolve. In-game wagering is going to get bigger and bigger - especially after the William Hills and Cantor Gamings get done with things in Vegas.

Not to get off track too much, but my overall point is there are millions of "trends" and "systems" out there that are referencing football seasons that are ancient history when talking about today's everchanging game and markets. I'm not a trend guy with the exception of the preseason. During the regular season I'm all about the fundamentals and advanced stats, etc.

[odog11]

1. Teams that won 6 games or LESS the previous year, in the first game next season cover the spread 55% of the time.
   
   1. Miami, Buffalo, Cle, Jags, Indy, Wash, Minn, Car, T.B. , St Louis.
   
   
2. Teams that won 12 or MORE games the previous year are a mere 41% ATS in the first game next season.
   
   1. NEW Eng, Pitt, Bal, G. Bay, 49ers, Saints
   
   
3. In September, when the total is set at 45 or HIGHER, it goes UNDER 59% of the time. (60-88-2 o/u , since 2005)
   
   1. Week 1 where this applies -Saints vs Wash (49.5) - New Eng @ Tenn (47.5) - Det vs StL (46.5) - 49ers @ G. Bay ( 45) - S.D. @ Oak (47.5)

1. In September, NFC East Teams, on the road, playing as an underdog are 15-6 ATS (71%) and 14-6 OVER (70%) , since 2005
   
   1. Week 1 where this applies: Cowboys +3.5 @ NYG , Wash +9 @ N.O

-NFLPicksGuy

New England @ Tennessee under is intriguing, expect Patriots to run a little more, especially early in the season and defense will be improved.