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**'s Picks - NFL Week 5 YTD - 15-10-1 +6.5 Units
YTD - 15-10-1 +6.5 Units
Another tough week last week going 3-4 +1 unit. 2 bad weeks in a row. Every game I missed was damn damn close, aside from the 9rs in a teaser pick (I was really dumb there with that pick, I usually blow 1 game/week by being a moron - and sheesh, that was a bad bad pick).
This week will be a bit different... Lots of BIG Home Favs. Good week for ML parlays/teasers IMO.
For the picks:
To start, I hate taking rookie QBs on bad football teams with any amount of points. My first 3 picks are all about that. I figure 2 of 3 will hit no matter what. No other logic/write-up needed. Rookie QBs on bad teams generally get their asses whooped by good football teams:
New Orleans -6 over Tampa
Indy -18 over Tennessee
Kansas City -3 1/2 @ Arizona
Arizona is not completely terrible (their O Line is bottom 5, they're terrible), and KC CAN be terrible. But I'm sticking with my belief, despite not really liking that line a whole lot. KC is a much different team on the road.
Carolina -8 vs Cleveland
This is a pick that goes against current logic. Carolina is a very bad cover team, while Cleveland has shown a lot of heart + spunk recently. Cleveland also has been covering lately. However, Cleveland did so against a horrible team and an up-and-coming team with a pretty mediocre offense.
I think Carolina breaks out this game. Cleveland has so many injuries and do not have a favorable matchup against Carolina's receivers (let alone anywhere on either side of the ball - aside from Winslow Jr receiving). Also, you can run the ball on Cleveland with reasonable success. Carolina is committed to running the ball and can do so with, at worst, reasonable success, against anyone.
I just can't see Cleveland being very competitive this week at Carolina and I don't even think Charlie Frye's magic can help them cover. Cleveland is not very good against complete football teams and competitive against unbalanced/weak ones. Cle turns the ball over too much - and that's a big deal against a very good football team.
San Diego -3 vs Pittsburgh
This is the only other game I have money on currently, and It's a 'handicap' pick. I see it more as a coin-flip decision logically. I can see it going either way.
Both teams can run the ball and stop the run. However, Pitt hasn't thrown the ball with much consistency. Pitt also is turning the ball over a LOT (especially for them) recently. I realize they have a bye week leading into this game - but the extra week will not help them gameplan. Even my Mom knows what SD is going to do on offense, and she doesn't watch football.
The bye week COULD help Big Ben get his head back together and improve his throwing technique, which really hasn't been all that bad, to be honest... He's just making 1-2 bad plays/game, and his team isn't bailing him out enough. I don't blame Big Ben for the losses, it's actually the entire team. There are constant blown assignments on the O line and the D doesn't look like it should.
I know it sounds odd, because I think he's the most complete defender in the NFL, but something is wrong with Polamalu. I know he's knicked up a bit - but he has missed a few tackles in big spots where he NEVER misses tackles (not even when he was a rookie) - and that's near the line of scrimmage. He's the barometer on that D right now. Pitt's D puts a LOT on his shoulders to make plays - maybe too much.
SD, on the other hand, are at home - coming off a game they should've won and coached themselves out of. They're still a very good football team. I think the Ravens gave the blueprint to how to slow down (notice how I say 'slow down' - you can't stop it) the Charger running game - by playing a base 4-4 and making Marty throw the ball, which Marty won't do, even against a non-stop goalline D. Gates, also, is not getting involved enough, which is a big concern. It's not HIS fault - it's by coaching design. He's blocking too much.
SD ran the ball against that 4-4 front with reasonable success last week, also. There's no reason to think they can't do it against a base 3-4. Pitt has a LOT of speed on D, so I don't think Tomlinson or Turner are going to make a lot of huge runs... Both are good for a lot of solid runs -- 5-8 yd runs, though. I also suspect that SD will attack the flats more throwing the ball, plus run more screens, to open up their power running game inside the tackles... If they can do that, and teams have this season against Pitt, it's not even going to be much of a game.
My gut really says that Pitt is going to come out with a lot of passion, which is why I'm nervous with this pick - however, I don't think you can rattle SD. SD always has one of the toughest schedules in the NFL and you can't get them off their game very easy - if at all. I like the home team here.
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Other bets + leans:
4 Team 9 pt. Teaser - even money
Minnesota +2
New Orleans +3
New England -1/2
Carolina +1
Philly -1 1/2 over Dallas - Most likely jumping on this now, the line is as good as it will get. I like the home team in the NFC East, but have no data to back it up - it's just a feel.
Teams that I like for teasers and will probably be doing a mixture of:
6 point teaser picks:
Car -8, NO -6, Min -6 1/2, Jack -7, KC -3.
10 point teaser picks:
SD -3, NE -9, Indy -18, Chi -11
I can't see any of those teaser picks failing with the points. If you can make a case for ANY of those teaser picks being bunk (other than Indy), please, debate your points. I always make 1 brutal mistake on teasers and need help figuring out where I screwed up this week in my thinking.
Anyhow, GL this week and lets make some lewts!
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Originally Posted by McBa1n
