It's been awhile since I have seen a spread that big. What are your thoughts?
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10-02-06 12:17 AM #1
Indianapolis -19.5...wow!!!
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10-02-06 12:22 AM #2
I wouldn't bet the game, but at that spread I may as well take the Titans, because it can only come down.
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10-02-06 12:26 AM #3
yep staying away for sure
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10-02-06 01:17 AM #4
Im exact thoughts when I seen that line posted. Im not sure I remember the last time I seen a NFL line that big. No way I will even touch that either way.
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10-02-06 02:09 AM #5
Hell, I take a shot with the Titans with that many points.
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10-02-06 02:16 AM #6
will be interesting to see the alternate lines at pinnacle and cris as well. I wonder if the Titans ML will top +2000
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10-02-06 03:39 AM #7
Don't throw away you're money...
Originally Posted by rm18
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10-02-06 04:33 AM #8
colts D is giving up more points than last year
my feeling is colts cover
Tenn secondary is a laugh and if vince turns it over more than once especially deep in their own territory than colts can throw +14 on them in 1 quarter
prolly will stay away til it goes down
tenn has to be disrespected by that line
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10-02-06 10:25 AM #9
hehe - that line seems soft. It should be closer to a Temple college FB line.
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10-02-06 10:37 AM #10 running not gunning
colts seaon ticket holder here...
Indy is going to focus reg season on building running game post-edge so blow outs probably not going to be as likely as in years past. Love teasing them under -3 every chance I get (like against Jets yesterday) and occasionally playing them strght up under 7, but do not feel comfortable with lines over 7 because they aren't playing that style of ball this year. Dungy using leads to run the rookie...
That said, would not bet Tenn under any circs because Colts could easily win by 4 touchdowns whether trying to or not..Gl~
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10-02-06 11:44 AM #11
Well I can understand their logic here. Not for nothing, the Cowboys beat the Titan 45 to 14; with Drew Bledsoe throwing the ball. Does anywhere here really think the Colts won't beat them by 19.5???
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10-02-06 12:10 PM #12
I'll be honest, it's very tempting.
The Colts usually cover (yesterday a rare exception)
Dungy has a lot of class and won't run up the score - but, I'm sure like against Dallas, the score is inflated by bad Ten play... So I don't see how Ten could cover unless they show up and play out of their asses.
The Haynesworth fiasco isn't going to help, either... That's one team that doesn't need anymore distraction.
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10-02-06 03:56 PM #13
My line on this game was -21.5 so I think this line is extremely low. Titans have no offense at all and this will be a game where Manning can pad his stats. I will be taking Indy hopefully at a better # later in week.. Manning will probably throw for 6 TDs in here.
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10-02-06 05:48 PM #14
I would take any team at +19.5 but Indianapolis. If I can recall Indianapolis is a god at covering at home.
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10-02-06 06:02 PM #15
I had this game about 3td also. Indy should cover this Originally Posted by imgv94
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10-02-06 08:36 PM #16
The last time I remember seeing a line this big was Houston's first year when they played at Philly. They were +19. And they covered 17-35.
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10-02-06 09:59 PM #17
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10-02-06 11:09 PM #18
To note, last time Ten was a road dog by 18 or more (not sure about 19 - i checked 18 derrr), they are 2-4
They have a rookie starting QB...
My line actually is indy -31
My cap system is actually doing a LOT better than I am this year - wish I played THOSE picks (I'm a big chalk better - or"square")
If the line shrinks a touch, I'm all over that game - and then some.
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10-03-06 12:52 AM #19
I think you are nuts for laying those type points, but if you have an angle I wish you luck. Originally Posted by imgv94
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10-03-06 12:59 AM #20
Indy's run defense sucks. I can't lay 3 TDs with a team that is capable of giving up big runs on the ground, which not only eats time off the clock, but if it results in FGs for Bironas, then it makes it even all the more tougher.
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10-03-06 01:09 AM #21
If there is one thing I have learned about betting on football over the last twenty years, it is this: never bet a crappy team over a good team, no matter the spread. Tonight's MNF game (Green Bay vs. Philly) is example number one...
Last edited by rustyaustin; 10-03-06 at 01:10 AM.
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10-03-06 01:51 AM #22
And indeed who could possibly argue with a sample size of one? Originally Posted by rustyaustin
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10-03-06 02:08 AM #23
Hmmm...then why is it that >14 point favorites in the NFL are 29-31-1 ATS since 1993? Originally Posted by rustyaustin
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10-03-06 04:11 AM #24
good #, rickysteve, but it doesn't take into consideration some things...
It's way TOO vaigue - and if that is the ultimate # - I think the Colts are a punishinly strong favorite and that line is too weak.
But that's me...
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10-03-06 04:56 AM #25
The parity is gone now. Right now there is a huge seperation between the good teams and the bad. A couple of years ago the NFL was known as the league where anyone could beat anyone,not the case anymore.. Originally Posted by RickySteve
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10-03-06 05:22 AM #26
I disagree, IMG - but the parity in this matchup is like Temple playing OSU...
Ok, maybe NWestern playing OSU, but you get the point.
The Texans DID beat Miami - and EVERYONE (mostly), is all over Nick Saban's jock for them having a mediocre season last year with a STOUT lineup IMO (Ronnie Brown runs like a seasoned veteran at his young age - he's VERY VERY good - they just have a dog-crap Oline).
Well - we see what a bad NFL coach he is - or bad QB Daunte is.
I think it's the former, not the latter, but that's me. Daunte may be a turnover machine at times, but the boy can play.
The parity shows up in almost every game - but now the NFL shows up in the ONE key stat that I think most cappers miss in their "power rankings" -- and that's the value of 'playmakers'.
Playmaker tilts are everything. Miami, in my 'capping' has a whole 0 for it... Tennessee has a +1 (I give it for Pacman Jones on special teams - the kid can burn and has some of the best lateral motion I've ever seen). The Colts playmaker tilt?
+7
I'll just hint that Manning gets the Max of +3, you can sort out the rest.
The bottom line is, -18 is a steal for the Colts, which is showing itself now and again. The Titans, personnel-wise, are WORSE than the Raiders (if you follow the draft, free agency and salary-cap considerations).
I really believe Indy covers that spread easy - and I'm not even thinking my 'cap' system. I only have that as reference (again, I should follow that and not my gut - if you follow my write ups, I'm almost always correct 90% on what will happen - even if I lose the bet - but always cover a teaser:>).
I really think this is a true test to who can cap. If you have the stones to take Indy - then take them.
If you believe the Titans can cover - then take them. I LOVE Jeff Fisher as a coach - I truly believe he can lead top 20 talent to the playoffs (heck he did it a few times)...
The guy is a winner...
But the team he fields Sunday is amongst the worst ever fielded in the free agency era vs Peyton Manning.
YOU do the math...Last edited by McBa1n; 10-03-06 at 05:24 AM.
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10-03-06 05:34 AM #27
With what? LOL... Originally Posted by McBa1n
You are right my friend. I think the Raiders fit that description as well.. Originally Posted by McBa1n
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10-03-06 07:22 AM #28
You were talking about 'parity being gone'. THAT is what I disagree with - aside from these 2 teams. You're talking about a contender vs a bottom 5 team with a ROOKIE QB starting on the road... That's not parity, that's annihilation.
No parity here hahaha.
However, I think the parity in the NFL this season amongst teams with "serviceable QBs" is better than ever.
If anything, the value, IMO, lies in teasers, not so much the lines. The lines are disgustingly close this season. I havn't ever had 2 weeks in a row where 4 points in 3 games cost me so much.
As for the Raiders... They are probably the WORST team with a hall of fame calibur player EVER fielded.
I like Art Shell, but Al Davis shouldn't have fired him to begin with - and he shouldn't have re-hired him.
You're talking 2 COMPLETELY different eras from when he coached vs now... The Raiders are freaking terrible, but have enough playmakers to NOT be the worst team in the league.
Who is to blame for that?
It's not just the coach - it goes higher into the GM and the Owner.
Moss and Jordan are studs - there's no reason why they should play so bad.... But yet they do.
That's an organizational problem.
(plus ANY organization that believes Aaron Brooks can play has no idea how to play football - the guy just doesn't get it and is 5 years+ past his prime).
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10-03-06 11:05 AM #29
The line is already down to -18
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10-03-06 01:10 PM #30
hahahaha...Right. The market has been spot on for the last 13 years, but now it's wrong. Don't you ever get sick of going broke? Originally Posted by imgv94
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10-03-06 01:14 PM #31
The market is moving in your favor. I suggest you leverage this tremendous opportunity to the maximum and punish the stupid Titan-loving masses. Do you have any home equity you can tap into? Originally Posted by McBa1n
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10-03-06 01:24 PM #32
i tend to stay away from these type of games unless I really love the dog, chances of being backdoored or the fav playing soft when up +20 more than discount any edge you think you have on the colts.
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10-03-06 02:52 PM #33
The line checks out at 18.5 right now. I'm leaning toward Indy myself, can't see no reason why they wouldn't cover unless they take a slack approach.
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10-03-06 02:59 PM #34 good or crappy
Any stat over 5 years old is not germane...also, at least some of those games were between two crappy teams or two good teams... Originally Posted by RickySteve
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10-03-06 03:06 PM #35
For Indy bettors the 1H -12.5 looks a lot better than the full game. That way the backdoor won't slam in your face when Colts play reserves for 4Q.
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