The Colts should cover the spread fairly easy today when they meet the Jets at Giants Stadium in New Jersey.
The Colts have gotten through their first three games with an undefeated record and chalk up another one this coming Sunday.
Indianapolis will take a big step down in class to face a surprising 2-1 Jets team, but that 2-1 record cannot be taken two strongly. Wins over Tennessee and Buffalo are good for morale, but facing a Colts team that will tear through their defense. New York allowed 475 yards against Buffalo and if the Bills can rack up that amount of yardage, there’s no telling what the Colts can hang on the Jets.
Indianapolis faced a rugged Jaguars defense last Sunday where Peyton Manning had a dreadful game. If there is one quarterback that is going to redeem himself, it’s Manning. With a home game against Tennessee on deck, there will be no look-ahead for the Colts.
These teams have not faced each other since 2003, but since then they have gone in opposite directions. Indianapolis will show the explosive offense that we are accustomed to. The Colts are one of six teams off to a 3-0 start, but in two of their three games, against the New York Giants and Jacksonville, they allowed a total of 377 yards on the ground, and 5.5 ypc. They get a reprieve this week however as the Jets have shown no signs of a running game this season as they are averaging 72.3 ypg and 2.6 ypc, 27th and 31st in the league respectively. The team that can win the rushing battle usually wins the game but the Colts have so many other weapons it hasn’t mattered yet. The Jets let the Bills run and pass for almost 500 yards, and Buffalo hardly has the tools the Colts flaunt. Even without running back Edgerrin James, the Colts are among the top five in the league in yards with 371.3 ypg and points with 30 ppg.
Indianapolis is the league leader in third down conversions at 63.4 percent and making it even more dominant is the fact that no other team in the league is even at 50 percent. That is why the Colts can get away with no running game.
This may seem like a lot of points to be laying on the road but the Colts are not your average road team. The Colts are 25-8 on the road since Tony Dungy took over as head coach and they've won eight of their past nine away from home, with the one setback being a 28-13 loss at Seattle last season when they rested several of their frontline players. The Colts are 17-8-3 ATS on the road over the last three plus years while the Jets have dropped the money in their last six games against teams with a winning record.
I think everyone was suprised to see how well the Jets did agianst the Colts. Although they didn't win, they did beat the spread. I'm sure most thought they would cover the spread easily including me.
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Matt Fargo: Play Colts at Jets
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