Similar to Week 2, I am paying a lot of extra juice ($140 this time, in fact) just to get an extra 2 1/2 points to get over a "key" number for one of the teams in my 4-team teaser. In this instance, I am getting 2 1/2 points on the Cowboys just by simply betting this teaser at a different book. At 5dimes, I can only get the Cowboys at +2, but ties lose, so in reality, I ACTUALLY have Dallas at +1. At Pinnacle, I got Dallas at +3.5, which puts me over a BIG NFL key number of 3, just in case the Cowboys lose by 3 to Tennessee. So, to me, the extra 2.5 points I get with Dallas, putting me over the "key" number of 3 with Dallas, is worth the extra $140 of juice since Pinny's teaser go at -140 compared to 5dimes at -120. Now after all of this, watch Tennessee win by 4. The bet:
$980 to win $700
Indianapolis +5
Dallas +3.5
Baltimore +15
New England +18.5
Reasoning:
1) Colts have been a spectacular teaser play over the last 4 years, and they can even lose by 3 or 4 points here and I still get a "W".
2) All the T.O. distractions are certainly worrisome and even more worrisome is that maybe Dallas is looking ahead of this bad Titans' team to Philadelphia in Week 5. But with a rookie QB making his first start and Dallas off a bye week, I would expect Dallas to win the game, which is all I need here.
3) The Ravens' defense MUST stop L.T., and if they can accomplish this, then the Chargers need QB Philip Rivers (with 2 career starts) to beat this defense. Also consider the fact that The Ravens have only allowed 20 points all season. San Diego may not score more than 14 points in this game unless they get turnovers. I think Baltimore can win outright, so I am happy to get 15 and see if SD can beat this team, AT Baltimore, by more than 2 TDs.
4) I like this situational spot as the Patriots are coming off an embarrassing Home loss on National TV while the Bengals are coming off a HUGE divisional win against their arch-rivals at Pittsburgh. The Patriots have been a great bounce-back team under Bill Belichick, and hopefully this will continue in 2006 because the Patriots simply are not as good as they have been the last 5 years. But I'll take my chances with 18.5.
Week 5: 3-4, -$19
Week 4: 3-6, +$110
Week 3: 3-3, -$575
Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge)
Week 1: 5-1, +$913
I like all the Picks with those lines - mmm...juicy lines.
I'm on SD, but I don't see them winning by 15+
Man... Indy with any points is money in the bank. Sheesh.
Good luck!
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4-team teaser to close out the week
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