[CoverOne]

I read recently that since 1996, at least 5 playoff teams from the previous year failed to make the playoffs the following year. Still trying to find the article, but looking at last years playoff teams, which 5 do you think will not make it in 2012?

AFC
Patriots
Ravens
Texans
Broncos
Steelers
Bengals

NFC
Packers
49ers
Saints
Giants
Falcons
Lions

My rank, in order of confidence, is

1. Lions
2. Broncos
3. Bengals
4. 49ers
5. Saints

[a4u2fear]

Bengals overachieved, they miss. Houston still makes it with the shit division. I bet Denver starts slow. Even in Mannings last season he threw 15 ints. I may take the under on Denver. manning I'm sure is likely to be injured and I bet he has a weak start

[suicidekings]

You think the Saints are going to drop below 10 wins this year? I feel like that would be necessary for the Falcons to take the NFC South, and while its reasonable to assume the Saints' offense will not match last year's output, I would also expect their defense to be improved a bit. Or do you expect the Falcons to improve to a 11-12 win team this season?

Also, if the Niners don't with their division, who does? Excluding the Rams outright, Seattle has more upside than the Cardinals, IMO, but even if SF regresses to the level you expect, we're likely talking about needing at least 9 wins to win the division.

On this topic, Chad Millman interviewed a guy named Patrick Donovan last year (Aug 3, 2011), who was talking about a similar statistic to the one you mentioned. His assertion was that every year at least 8 teams improve or falter such that their season win total rises or falls by at least 4 wins (A 12-4 team goes 8-8 the following year, or a 6-10 team goes 10-6, etc). It was an interesting approach to identifying the teams set to rise/fall in the coming year.

[CoverOne]

SK, you beat me to it. I was going to make a thread about that in a few days. check out these numbers on how many teams have increased/decreased by 4 wins from one year to the next.
1997-12
1998-10
1999-10
2000-8
2001-15
2002-7
'03-14
'04-11
'05-15
'06-13
'07-13
'08-12
'09-10
'10-15
'11-9
avg./year=11.6 median/year = 12.

Even on the low end in the last 15 years, at least 7 teams have had a change in win total by at least 4. When looking at your own projections, this stat helps if you notice many similar records to the prior year.

Of course its tough to project every team that will improve/decline by 4, mainly because a few teams will lose injuries to too many key players, but identifying a few is a good start.

[CoverOne]

To answer your question about the Saints, to be honest I am very unsure of them. I expect there offense to regress a little bit but for the most part they should still be a top 5 offense. But with the coaching issues, its tough to tell how this team will be able to bounce back from a tough loss or handle pressure in tight games. I don't like Atlanta very much, mainly because they tend to be run heavy at times and I do not like Michael Turner. He is slow and has trouble against good front 7's. I went to Boston College with Matty Ice and he is a solid QB, but he isn't the gunslinger they want him to be (like Brees, Rodgers, or Brady) with all those great weapons. But depending on how New Orleans plays, they might win 11 games by default. I like Carolina to improve again, probably to 8 wins.

I've been down on the Niners all offseason, I just don't think Alex Smith will be able to play as good as he did again this year. I hate Arizona(4-6 wins), and I think St Louis is going to struggle but definitely improve (5-7 wins). I was really feeling good about Seattle this year, I think they have an underrated defense, solid running game, and underrated WR's. Unfortunately if Marshawn Lynch gets suspended that will affect them alot. I thought both the Niners and Seahawks would battle each other all season and probably end up with 9 wins each, but we'll have to wait to find out about Beast Mode's status.

[CoverOne]

Potential teams to decline 4+ games:
New Orleans
Green Bay
San Francisco
Arizona
Oakland
Detroit
Tennessee

Potential to improve 4+ wins
Chicago
Carolina
St Louis
Philadelphia
Indianapolis
Minnesota

[easyliving]

lions
bengals
giants
broncos

[suicidekings]

Potential teams to decline 4+ games:
New Orleans
Green Bay
San Francisco
Arizona
Oakland
Detroit
Tennessee

Potential to improve 4+ wins
Chicago
Carolina
St Louis
Philadelphia
Indianapolis
Minnesota

Baltimore seems ripe for a decline this season after losing the least games to injury, and also playing one of the easiest schedules in 2011. I also like the Chargers to potentially improve a great deal this season behind Rivers looking to bounce back from a problematic 2011 season.

[CoverOne]

Ya I like Pittsburgh to win that division, and they already lost Suggs for a while. They haven't lost more than 6 games since harbaugh took over though.