[CoverOne]

Here is a preseason version of my 2012 power rankings. They are based off my own research. I'm sure people will disagree on some spots as I am really high on some teams and low on others. Let me know where you think I'm off and why.

1. New England
2. Green Bay
3. Pittsburgh
4. Baltimore
5. Houston
6. Philadelphia
7. Chicago
8. NY Giants
9. Atlanta
10. New Orleans
11. Kansas City
12. Buffalo
13. NY Jets
14. Dallas
15. San Francisco
16. Denver
17. Cincinnati
18. Carolina
19. Detroit
20. Seattle
21. San Diego
22. Miami
23. Tampa Bay
24. Minnesota
25. Washington
26. Jacksonville
27. Oakland
28. Tennessee
29. St. Louis
30. Indianapolis
31. Arizona
32. Cleveland

[WpgCapper]

I really like your list. Like that you've mixed it up vs the consensus picks. ex/ i like that you don't have SF as a top 5 team which I agree with. I think they fall off a bit this year mainly bc i think the NFC west teams have improved a lot they won't have the same cupcake games they had last year so i like where you ranked them.

What's your reasoning for having Pittsburgh so high? I feel they're due to fall behind baltimore and cinch this year.

Other teams I thought were odd.

Arizona - too low, they finish close to or at .500 this year

Minnesota - you have them just one back of tampa, seems disrespectful to tampa i think they have a good year. Minnesota is a bottom 4 team for sure.

St. Louis - too low, they finished last year with seemingly their entire team on IR. Theres a reason they were predicted to win the division last year. Fischer finds ways to win without star studded rosters.

Nice list thought

[slacker00]

I agree with wpgcapper that the Rams and Cards are closer to 8-8 calibre than #29 and #31.

Otherwise, Detroit at #19 seems like an obvious mistake, they are easily in the top 10 ahead of Atlanta, NO, IMHO.

Another head scratcher is Buffalo at #12, I don't get that at all. They are just inside the bottom 10, best I can tell.

[CoverOne]

Pittsburgh- Turnover margin declined by 30 from years 2010-2011. This is bound to regress back as extreme highs and lows do from year to year. I also think the Mendenhall injury is something they will overcome with a decent back in Redman. They lost to Baltimore twice last year- a highly motivated team in week 1 and a close game where Baltimore took it in the last minute. This will provide Pittsburgh with plenty of motivation. Alot has been made of Pittsburgh's defense losing players and aging fast, but they have the coaching and fundamentals to continue their success.

Arizona- Last year they were 8-5 in one score games, including 2 GW punt returns. Elite teams are capable of winning these close games consistently at a high percentage, but lesser-talented teams need more luck in these close games, hence 2 GW punt returns. This should regress back to or below .500 this year. I don't think that drafting Malcolm Floyd will solve their problems on the offensive line. They also play a 2nd place schedule, including teams in the AFC East and NFC North, plus Philly and Atlanta. If they go 4-2 in their division, they still have to win 4 against New England, Miami, Buffalo, NY Jets, Philly, Atlanta, GB, Detroit, Chicago, and Minny to win 8 games. I think they overachieved last year and probably fall to 4-5 wins this year.

Minnesota- They are pretty much the opposite of Arizona, going 2-9 in one score games and have a very easy schedule out of the division playing AFC south and NFC West. I do think there is a decent gap between Tampa Bay and the remaining teams though.

St Louis- I like them to win 6-7 games this year so maybe they are a bit underrated. They recovered only 24% of all fumbles last year, a stat that historically regresses back to 50% for every team (too much luck involved for this number to be a constant). I think Bradford will be entering his prime this year and should be better than 1-5 in close games.

Detroit- I am going to love the Detroit Lions this year, and I mean to bet against them. The 2011 Lions started off the season with so much confidence and swagger they were able to start 5-0. Some of those games they were lucky to win (Dallas and Minnesota), and they're only good win was against Chicago on MNF. They finished the season 5-7 including playoffs, and didn't beat one team above .500 the rest of the year. Stafford was finally able to stay healthy and they had great success slinging it deep to Calvin. I don't see that strategy being as effective as it was last year. They also play Green Bay and Chicago 4 times and I don't see them winning more than 1 of those games.

[suicidekings]

How did KC end up in #11? Ahead of SF, Dallas, and Detroit? I think you've severely overvalued the Chiefs here.

[CoverOne]

How did KC end up in #11? Ahead of SF, Dallas, and Detroit? I think you've severely overvalued the Chiefs here.

The chiefs were 7-9 last year losing Cassel, Charles, Berry, and Moeaki while Dallas was 8-8 and healthy for most of the season. I have zero confidence Dallas can play up to their talent level for a whole season. It's not much of a difference as I see both winning 8-10 games.

Also as I said before I expect Detroit and San Francisco to have down years.

[k13]

Like Buffalo will finish ahead of SF and Dallas.

Bills will be Bills.

[suicidekings]

Agreed that Detroit could have a tough time this year in a very tough division, however San Fransisco is sporting a pretty soft schedule. I think it's unlikely that the Niners' defense is going to regress this season. Their fundamental approach of creating constant pressure at the line of scrimmage and aggressive pursuit of forced turnovers lends itself to consistency. The Niners special teams remains the best in the NFL. Offensively, Alex Smith has really benefited from Harbaugh's presence, having his best season in 2011. I would be shocked if he took a major step back, and not being a pass-heavy team in the first place, they are somewhat less succeptible to the ups and downs at QB (with Colin Kaepernick ready to step up if given the chance). Finally, the addition of Brandon Jacobs and LaMichael James behind Gore/Hunter and their ground game remains one of the best in the NFL.

So where/how are you seeing them regress?

Not to nitpick, and I do agree with the majority of your list, but I really don't follow the logic on SF.

[a4u2fear]

Like Buffalo will finish ahead of SF and Dallas.

Bills will be Bills.

Ignorance will cost you $

[Quake]

Great thread. Lots of good info. Do think SF will be right there again this year like the others said.

[k13]

Ignorance will cost you $

Thinking Buffalo will win 9-11 games will cost you money.

[a4u2fear]

Thinking Buffalo will win 9-11 games will cost you money.

Let's bet it, I have a thread ready to start. Yes the bills have been a shithole for quite some time. But they have a weak ass schedule, and only play two elite QBs this year and have what may be One of the best D lines in the AFC and NFL. Instead of taking a post to heart, just don't assume the same thing will happen every year. The 49ers of last year will be eerily similar to the Bills of 2012

[CoverOne]

San Francisco- I look at alot of advanced statistics when projecting a whole season for a specific team. Anyone who reads up on football outsiders knows of Estimated Wins, which formulates how many games a team should have won based soley on their point differential. In 2011, SF had an estimated win total of 10.8 games, and the difference of 2.2 is one of the largest margins in the NFL. Teams that overperform their estimated wins in year 1 generally regress the following season.

SF was also 8-3 in close games (one score games). Again, using information at FBO, this stat almost never carries over from year to year, so unless SF starts beating teams by a larger margin, they will lose more of these close games. But Hey, they added Randy Moss and Mario Manningham! they should blow teams out now... not so fast.

Alex Smith threw only 5 interceptions and had an interception rate of only 1.1% (best in the league), another stat that is virtually unsustainable. In 2010, Brady had only 4 ints with a rate of .8%(incredible even for him) and followed up with 12 picks in 2011 even with a better than average 2% rate. Here are other notable declines in interception rates in recent years.

Brett Favre - 2009- 7 INT's, 1.3% (T-1st in NFL), 2010- 19 INT's, 5.3% (last in NFL)
Aaron Rodgers - 2009- 7 INT's, 1.3% (T-1st NFL), 2010- 11 INT's, 2.3% (won SB)
Drew Brees - 2009 - 11 INT's, 2.1% (6th in NFL), 2010- 22 INT's 3.3% (22nd in NFL)
Roethlisberger- 2010- 5 INT's, 1.3% (2nd NFL, only 12 games), 2011- 14 INT's, 2.7% (17th in NFL)
Freeman- 2010- 6 Int's, 1.3% (T-2nd NFL), 2011- 22 INT's, 4% (29th in NFL)
Vick- 2010 (12 games) 6 INT's, 1.6% (4th NFL), 2011 (13 games)- 14 INT's, 3.3% (23rd NFL)

These numbers clearly show that even elite talent can not sustain an extremely low interception rate on a year to year basis. I added Freeman with them because his 2010 was very similar to Smith's 2011 in that out of nowhere they excelled and played at a high rate. In 2011, Freeman stumbled and I expect Smith to fall in 2012.

Back to my point about adding Moss and Manningham to the roster. The 49ers were a run heavy team that threw short preferably over throwing deep. What do you expect to happen when Smith starts throwing the ball up more aggresively instead of playing conservative, he will throw more picks. It's not like adding Randy Moss will turn Smith into Brady, even if Randy can play at a respectable level. Combine a natural regression with a tendency to throw the ball deeper more, I see Alex Smith throwing AT LEAST DOUBLE the interceptions he threw last season, and that would still be hard to accomplish.

Alot of numbers here but just understand that SF has many things pointing against them this season and it will be very tough to win even 10 games.

[CoverOne]

Agreed that Detroit could have a tough time this year in a very tough division, however San Fransisco is sporting a pretty soft schedule. I think it's unlikely that the Niners' defense is going to regress this season. Their fundamental approach of creating constant pressure at the line of scrimmage and aggressive pursuit of forced turnovers lends itself to consistency. The Niners special teams remains the best in the NFL. Offensively, Alex Smith has really benefited from Harbaugh's presence, having his best season in 2011. I would be shocked if he took a major step back, and not being a pass-heavy team in the first place, they are somewhat less succeptible to the ups and downs at QB (with Colin Kaepernick ready to step up if given the chance). Finally, the addition of Brandon Jacobs and LaMichael James behind Gore/Hunter and their ground game remains one of the best in the NFL.

So where/how are you seeing them regress?

Not to nitpick, and I do agree with the majority of your list, but I really don't follow the logic on SF.

Defensively they pretty much avoided injuries all season, which will be hard to duplicate in 2012. Read this article, the second paragraph under the 49ers section http://www.footballoutsiders.com/fou...wns-nfc-west-0 .

No worries about nit picking, if best teams from last year were again the best this year, sportbooks would be out of business. I love seeing what others have to say that's why I post to get the feedback. When I look at SF, I see them regressing for multiple reasons, but they can regress to 10 wins and still win the division.

[therushishere]

Bills offseason 100 million dollar investment only plays half the time.

SF too low. KC too high.
Pitt at 3 with the defending SB champs at 8?

[bb_skoots]

Colts have a better QB and coach ( couldn't be worse?). Also a fourth place schedule so I think they will be better than #30.

New coaching staffs in J'ville, Miami and Oakland could mean they are in for very long seasons.

[slacker00]

Colts have a better QB and coach ( couldn't be worse?). Also a fourth place schedule so I think they will be better than #30.

New coaching staffs in J'ville, Miami and Oakland could mean they are in for very long seasons.

Colts are a slam dunk #32 right now. It is no secret they are completely rebuilding. Look at their roster, they lost half their offensive starters from last year, it'll be 34 year old Reggie Wayne and a bunch of rookies and journeyman calibre fill-ins on offense. Freeney and Mathis are getting long in the tooth as well and will struggle to mainain a shadow their past glory. They'll be worse in 2012 and make an even more serious run at 0-16 than last year, I don't care who is on their schedule.

[CoverOne]

I agree with slacker, even though it's going to be hard for them to be worse. So much roster turnover, bad defense, no running game, and a rookie QB with rookie coach. They can pull off 5 wins by the division they play in but probably won't be as good as their record.

[CoverOne]

Bills offseason 100 million dollar investment only plays half the time.

SF too low. KC too high.
Pitt at 3 with the defending SB champs at 8?

I see both KC and SF to win 9-10 games. But I have KC ahead because I think they're improving while SF will decline this year.

I think Pittsburgh will have another Pittsburgh type year winning all they games they should, winning the division and 11-12 games. NYG went in a run late in the year and they probably aren't the best team in their division. I see 9-10 wins for them.

[bb_skoots]

I was considering total wins where the OP is concerned with power rankings so 2 different things. I won't argue with what you said.

[k13]

Let's bet it, I have a thread ready to start. Yes the bills have been a shithole for quite some time. But they have a weak ass schedule, and only play two elite QBs this year and have what may be One of the best D lines in the AFC and NFL. Instead of taking a post to heart, just don't assume the same thing will happen every year. The 49ers of last year will be eerily similar to the Bills of 2012

OK, what stipulations would you like?

Over 8.5 wins and I give you slight plus money on it?

Pinnacle has Bills o7.5 -171, so we can make a fair line from that.....

[a4u2fear]

OK, what stipulations would you like?

Over 8.5 wins and I give you slight plus money on it?

Pinnacle has Bills o7.5 -171, so we can make a fair line from that.....

What's your say? You were saying bills will be bills and I said they would not, so what is your take on that? How many wins?

[k13]

What's your say? You were saying bills will be bills and I said they would not, so what is your take on that? How many wins?

I'd like Bills u8.5 wins so you get o8.5 obviously. No 8 since we don't want pushes here.

Let me know what odds you think are fair for 8.5

Unless you think Bills win 13 games like the Niners did last year??? Since you are comparing them...

[Griffey4Ever]

Philly, KC, and Buffalo a little high.

SF, Arizona, and Tampa are a little low

But overall, a good list. Glad to see the Cowboys, Denver in the mediocre range, where they should be!

[CoverOne]

Philly, KC, and Buffalo a little high.

SF, Arizona, and Tampa are a little low

But overall, a good list. Glad to see the Cowboys, Denver in the mediocre range, where they should be!

I do like Philly, but I feel they are susceptible to injuries more than other teams. It's a gut feeling but they have a lot of small athletic players that seem injury prone.

KC an Buffalo seem to be too high according to most posts. I feel like KC, Buff, Dallas, SF, and NYJ are in heir own group of 8-10 wins and could be seeded anywhere.

I'm not very high on Arizona for reasons mentioned in an earlier post, but I know less about the NFC West than any other division. If you have any reasons why they are too low I'd like to hear them

[a4u2fear]

I'd like Bills u8.5 wins so you get o8.5 obviously. No 8 since we don't want pushes here.

Let me know what odds you think are fair for 8.5

Unless you think Bills win 13 games like the Niners did last year??? Since you are comparing them...

may just ignore you totally since A) you were mad I commented that you were ignorant and B), I've got to take a bet that is a full win higher than listed around. I'm not sure yet. You said the Bills will be the Bills, then offer me o 8.5 wins. If the Bills are the Bills, then offer o6.5 at juice if you're so sure they will be the bills.

[k13]

may just ignore you totally since A) you were mad I commented that you were ignorant and B), I've got to take a bet that is a full win higher than listed around. I'm not sure yet. You said the Bills will be the Bills, then offer me o 8.5 wins. If the Bills are the Bills, then offer o6.5 at juice if you're so sure they will be the bills.

Yes but the 7.5 is juiced to -200 at some place on the over so its very close to 8.5 with even odds.

Bills being Bills is another 5-8 win season with a slight possibility of 9 wins, there's little sense in me taking 6.5 or whatever number if I can get 8.0 at good odds.

I thought you were the one more confident in the Bills than me...?

If you want to make it fair, list the odds for 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5, 10.5 wins that you think are accurate ....then we can decide.

[a4u2fear]

Yes but the 7.5 is juiced to -200 at some place on the over so its very close to 8.5 with even odds.

Bills being Bills is another 5-8 win season with a slight possibility of 9 wins, there's little sense in me taking 6.5 or whatever number if I can get 8.0 at good odds.

I thought you were the one more confident in the Bills than me...?

If you want to make it fair, list the odds for 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5, 10.5 wins that you think are accurate ....then we can decide.

Same old bills in 5-8 range, they haven't won 8 games in 9 years. So you want me to Take a bet with you where I have to win with 9 or more wins and you win any other result. I'm not a retard. Just because i know a bet is going to hit doesnt mean im going to make a stupid bet to take it. They will be a good team, but go ahead and fade them, we can revisit this talk at the end of the season

[k13]

Same old bills in 5-8 range, they haven't won 8 games in 9 years. So you want me to Take a bet with you where I have to win with 9 or more wins and you win any other result. I'm not a retard. Just because i know a bet is going to hit doesnt mean im going to make a stupid bet to take it. They will be a good team, but go ahead and fade them, we can revisit this talk at the end of the season

I don't fade anything blindly, take each game individually but if they are going to be a "good" team then winning 9 games or more should not be a problem right?

I can take u7.5 (+150) if that's what you want.....

Their 2nd half schedule is easy so they should win a decent amount of games.

Or how about this, who wins more games, Niners or Bills?

[bb_skoots]

The Chiefs got rid of that fool coach Todd Haley and they play a fourth place schedule so they should be alright.

[a4u2fear]

I don't fade anything blindly, take each game individually but if they are going to be a "good" team then winning 9 games or more should not be a problem right?

I can take u7.5 (+150) if that's what you want.....

Their 2nd half schedule is easy so they should win a decent amount of games.

Or how about this, who wins more games, Niners or Bills?

Ok so you are going to take u7.5 at +150 From me? I am willing to have you bet 1000 to win 1500 max, you win 1500 if 7 or less and I win 1000 at 8 or more

[a4u2fear]

If you are willing to bet we should A start a new thread and B I want to see some credit if you have any here. I have a 4k loan from Jan If you'd like to see

[k13]

If you are willing to bet we should A start a new thread and B I want to see some credit if you have any here. I have a 4k loan from Jan If you'd like to see

Alright, you can check my credit with secretstash.

Start a thread and I will confirm.

[CoverOne]

Alright, you can check my credit with secretstash.

Start a thread and I will confirm.

This should be interesting.... good luck to both of ya

[easyliving]

How is Arizona #31? They were 8-8 last season if I'm not mistaken. One of the top WR in the league and a decent QB in Kolb. Also Cleveland isn't the worst team in the league they will bounce back and have a better year than most expected. As far as the worst team I like the Jaguars. Still no QB and relying heavily on MJR