[Jeff Grant]

The New England Patriots are counting down the days until their season-opening contest against the Tennessee Titans on Sept. 9, as the team hasn't been seen on a field since suffering a 21-17 loss to the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLVI.

The Patriots are currently 6.5-point road favorites against the Titans in the NFL betting odds for Week 1 (courtesy of SBR Forum), while the total has held steady at 48.

Sports bettors will likely examine how Tom Brady and the Patriots responded after dropping Super Bowl XLII on Feb. 3, 2008, coming away with a 17-10 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs as 16-point home favorites in the 2008-09 season opener.

Fantasy football owners remember that affair, as Brady suffered a season-ending knee injury in the first quarter. He has compiled an impressive 54-34-1 against-the-spread (ATS) record in his career away from Foxborough.

Tennessee finished with a 9-7 straight-up record last year, but managed to cover the spread in just six of those contests. The Titans are 4-2 ATS as home underdogs since the start of the 2008 campaign.

All eyes will be focused on running back Chris Johnson, who ran for a career-low 1,047 yards a year ago, which can be attributed to missing most of the preseason renegotiating his rookie contract.

The Titans are 1-3 ATS in the last four meetings in this series, which includes a 59-0 blowout loss as 9.5-point road underdogs on Oct. 18, 2009. Few players on the current roster played in that contest, but it should supply plenty of motivation for a proud franchise.

I'm going to recommend a play on the Patriots at this time, as they covered all four of their road wins a season ago when favored by seven or fewer points.

Early Pick: New England Patriots -6.5

[Jeff Grant]

Running back Adrian Peterson's arrest early Saturday morning (per NFL.com's Dan Hanzus) isn't the type of news that Minnesota Vikings fans want to read, especially with the team two months away from opening the 2012 NFL regular season against the Jacksonville Jaguars inside Mall of America Field at the H.H.H. Metrodome.

The Vikings are still listed as 4.5-point home favorites in the current Week 1 NFL betting odds (courtesy of SBR Forum), while the total is holding steady at 38.

Minnesota is coming off a forgettable 3-13 season, but they still managed to produce a 6-8-2 against-the-spread (ATS) record. The Vikings have covered three of the last four in this series, including a 30-12 victory as one-point road underdogs on Nov. 23, 2008, in the last meeting.

Peterson was the leading rusher in that contest, gaining 80 yards on 17 carries and scoring a 21-yard touchdown. He's made it a personal goal to get ready for the season opener and face the Jaguars for just the second time in his career.

Sports bettors may be reluctant in laying the points due to the Vikings being 4-6 as home favorites since the start of the 2010 season.

Jacksonville hopes that quarterback Blaine Gabbert is ready to take a step forward in his sophomore campaign, as the team wasted a tremendous statistical season from running back Maurice Jones-Drew.
The former UCLA Bruins star ran for a league-high 1,606 yards, which was 238 yards better than Baltimore Ravens runner Ray Rice—who finished second in that category.

Head coach Mike Mularkey has a major rebuilding job on his hands, but it's important to note that the franchise is 7-0 ATS as underdogs of six or less points when playing with revenge.

Jones-Drew didn't get a chance to run very much in his last matchup against Peterson, as the team fell behind by 14 points in the opening two minutes. He did play a major role in the passing game, finishing with nine catches and 113 receiving yards.

I'm going to recommend an early play on the Vikings, but I could change my mind if Gabbert demonstrates a better handle of the offense during the preseason. He could have a big day dropping back against a Minnesota secondary that ranked 26th against the pass in 2011.

Early Pick: Minnesota Vikings -4.5

[Jeff Grant]

The Dallas Cowboys will need to perform better against divisional foes if they plan on reaching the 2012 NFL playoffs. They posted a 5-7 combined record in that situation the last two years.

The Cowboys are currently three-point road underdogs against the New York Giants in their Week 1 regular-season matchup on Sept. 5 (courtesy of SBR Forum), while the total has moved up a half point to 47.

Sports bettors will need to be cautious in backing America's Team in the season opener. The franchise has registered a 2-10 against-the-spread (ATS) record versus NFC East opponents since 2010. They have also failed to cover the spread in six of seven games as an underdog of three or fewer points in that role.

Dallas is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games on the road in this series, including a 31-14 setback as three-point underdogs at MetLife Stadium on Jan. 1. It's still important to note that the Cowboys are on a 25-14 ATS run in September when playing away from the Lone Star State.

New York is the defending Super Bowl champion, and will enter the 2012 NFL season on a 6-0 ATS run, which includes four spread victories during last year's postseason run. The Giants managed to cover just one of three home games against divisional teams last year.

Eli Manning has become one of the league's elite players, but the Giants signal-caller is a disappointing 31-32-1 ATS at home during his career. It's a statistic that shouldn't carry too much weight in this matchup, considering Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo is 19-20-1 ATS on the road.

I'm going to recommend taking the points at this juncture, as the Cowboys performed well in last year's season opener against the New York Jets in this stadium, ultimately dropping a 27-24 decision as 6.5-point underdogs.

Dallas will also be playing with double revenge after dropping both series meetings a year ago.

Early Pick: Dallas Cowboys +3

[a4u2fear]

Check out NE trends, I'm pretty sure they usually do not cover the first week and play poorly.

[Jeff Grant]

Check out NE trends, I'm pretty sure they usually do not cover the first week and play poorly.

These are basically an early look at each game, as things will change over the next two months

Key angle for me was the Patriots last season opener after losing the Super Bowl the previous year

New England didn't cover that game - but Brady was knocked out early of course

[Jeff Grant]

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offered very little resistance to opponents when lining up as a home underdog last year, which will make things difficult for new head coach Greg Schiano in the 2012 regular-season opener against the Carolina Panthers on Sept. 9.

The Buccaneers are currently three-point home underdogs in the NFL betting odds for Week 1 (courtesy of SBR Forum), while the total sits at 46.5 across the board.

Tampa Bay tallied a 1-4 straight-up and against-the-spread (ATS) record when receiving points at Raymond James Stadium in 2011, with their lone victory coming against the New Orleans Saints (26-20) as six-point underdogs in Week 6.

Sports bettors will find that the Buccaneers failed to cover the spread by an average of 14 points in their four losses in that situation, with much of the blame being placed on quarterback Josh Freeman. He has compiled a dismal 2-8 ATS mark as a home underdog in his first three years under center.

Carolina is going to be showered with plenty of preseason praise, especially with signal-caller Cam Newton entering his sophomore campaign. The former Auburn Tigers star beat the number in both of his opportunities as a road favorite in his rookie season.

The Panthers must be respected in this spot due to their 7-1 ATS record as road favorites in their last eight opportunities, including a 38-19 blowout win on this field as one-point favorites on Dec. 4.

From a value standpoint, I have to recommend a play on the Buccaneers, considering they have covered their last five division games when playing with revenge in the first four weeks of a season.

Early Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3

[slacker00]

Check out NE trends, I'm pretty sure they usually do not cover the first week and play poorly.

2011: NE -7, NE 38 MIA 24
2010: NE -5, NE 38 CIN 24
2009: NE -13, NE 25 BUF 24
2008: NE -16, NE 10 KC 7
2007: NE -6, NE 38 NYJ 14
2006: NE -10, NE 19 BUF 17
2005: NE -7.5, NE 30 OAK 20
2004: NE -3, NE 27 IND 24

There's no trend here. NE seems to cover 50% of the time week 1. Play poorly? 8-0 in last 8 openers.

[Jeff Grant]

2011: NE -7, NE 38 MIA 24
2010: NE -5, NE 38 CIN 24
2009: NE -13, NE 25 BUF 24
2008: NE -16, NE 10 KC 7
2007: NE -6, NE 38 NYJ 14
2006: NE -10, NE 19 BUF 17
2005: NE -7.5, NE 30 OAK 20
2004: NE -3, NE 27 IND 24

There's no trend here. NE seems to cover 50% of the time week 1. Play poorly? 8-0 in last 8 openers.

Good info - thank you

[El Nino]

Good posts as always Jeff. What's your take on Chris Johnson? Was he in that bad of shape that he needed the whole season to warm up? Or do you think he got lazy after getting paid?

[Jeff Grant]

NFL quarterbacks dominate water cooler conversation during the football season on a weekly basis—either by the way they performed on fantasy football teams—or if they happened to cover the spread.

Sports bettors have been looking over the Week 1 NFL betting odds for quite some time (courtesy of SBR Forum), and many have formulated their early picks solely on the reputation of the man under center.

Jay Cutler will serve as a prime example of this theory against the Indianapolis Colts, as the Chicago Bears lost five of six games in straight-up fashion to end the 2011 campaign after his season-ending injury, while going 2-4 against the spread (ATS) in that span.

Let's take a closer look if Cutler, and four other NFL signal-callers are worth backing in the opening week of the 2012 NFL regular season.


The Buffalo Bills have been the biggest mover on the NFL odds board in Week 1, which is a bit surprising due to quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick's dreadful numbers against division rivals.

Fitzpatrick is a money-burning 6-12 ATS in his career against AFC East competition, but managed to cover the spread in a 28-24 setback against the New York Jets as 9.5-point road underdogs on Nov. 27 of last year.

Unless you envision a straight-up victory by the road team in this affair, I recommend backing the Jets at the discounted price, as all value has been lost on the Bills.


Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton found out that life in the AFC North was going to be a little tougher than the competition he faced at TCU during his collegiate years, posting a 1-4-1 ATS record in six divisional contests in 2011.

The Bengals signal-caller will open up his sophomore campaign on the road against the Baltimore Ravens on ESPN's Monday Night Football on Sept. 10, as the franchise will look to snap a three-game losing streak in the series.

Baltimore lands in a nice situational spot as a six-point home favorite, considering Joe Flacco's 17-12 -1 ATS mark in that situation over the course of his career.


I may need to rethink my earlier prediction of backing the Minnesota Vikings in their season opener against the Jacksonville Jaguars, with quarterback Christian Ponder producing an 0-3 ATS record as a favorite during his rookie campaign.

A turnaround is certainly possible in regards to that statistic, considering the team failed to cover those contests by just over four points on average.

The Vikings are currently 4.5-point home favorites, but that number could rise to six if running back Adrian Peterson proves fit enough to play on Sept. 9.


I was a little surprised that the San Diego Chargers opened up as one-point road underdogs against the Oakland Raiders in Week 1 when the NFL betting odds were initially released in April.

Quarterback Philip Rivers will not be happy that the early line movement has now made the Chargers a slight road favorite, considering his 14-18 ATS mark in that situation over the course of his career.

I may suggest bucking that trend in a few weeks, but need to see how the Bolts come together in training camp.


Jay Cutler was back on the practice field during Chicago Bears minicamp last month, but sports bettors should be cautious in backing him against the Indianapolis Colts in the regular-season opener on Sept. 9.

The former Vanderbilt Commodores star has emptied many pockets in his professional career as a home favorite, posting a horrendous 9-19-1 ATS mark in that situation.

I'm never one to suggest playing a double-digit favorite in the NFL's opening week.