[lid73]

Hello everyone. New to the forum, hope to contribute some intelligent discussion. I am posting a copy from another forum that I also am a member of. My overall record this year is 12-11-2. My posted record (at the other forum) is 8-10-2. For the sake of my own sanity, I will use the 8-10-2 record here as well. Comments are appreciated.

Ok folks, despite the fantastic Monday night game, it is time to look forward. Week two and Week three were pretty blase for me. Posted record: 8-10-2. Down a little bit, but ready to come storming back. For week 4, a lot jumps out at me:

Sea +3 Chi - Betting Seattle plus the points here. Most of you are saying: "huh?". And I totally see that. Alexander out. Bear defense is phenomenal. They are at home on Sunday night. Here's my reasoning. ANY 3-0 team will be overvalued in week 4. I think this is a pickem game with the two teams. Secondly, the Bears have come off a tough division win against Minny, and I can see them not being as sharp in this spot.

NO +7 Car - Betting Carolina. MANY reasons. Saints are 3-0. Coming off a huge, emotional win. Carolina is brutally physical. I'll give the points here.

SF +7 KC - Betting SF here. KC hasn't shown a whole lot this year. Coming off a bye, the rested team typically is overvalued a bit. I think SF can hang within 7. Although I am staying away from totals, this may be a good spot for an over.

Ari +7.5 Atl - Betting the Cardinals here. I can see Atlanta bouncing back, or I can see them folding like a cheap chair. But the main reason is that Arizona is playing Leinart. When this sort of stuff happens, the books overcompensate and set the line too high. 7.5 points is too many here.

Det +5.5 Stl - I'll give the 5.5 here. Detroit has shown that they can't stop anyone. This should also be a fairly high scoring game. I think the Rams stop Detroit at least one time more than they get stopped. Rams should win by 10 or 13 in this game. In fact, I am surprised that the line is less than a TD.

NE +6 Cin - This was a tough game to decide, but in the end, I decided Cinci. I think this game does not come down to a FG. Whoever wins, wins by a lot. NE has not been in synch this whole year. Until they show me something, I will be on the other side. There are also a LOT of people automatically betting NE after a loss. I think the line has value and I'll give the points.

GB +10.5 Phi - Going to Hammer Phily here. This is the first true mismatch of the year. Philly will pound GB and probably put up 35 in the first half. What scares me here is if Philly shuts down too early, and we get a back door cover. After the Giants game, however, I think Philly will step on GB's throat. I am going to either buy down to 10, or hope the line moves later this week. However, my play will be giving 10, and no more than 10.

Ind -9 NYJ - J E T S, Jets Jets Jets. Live home dog in a nice situation here. Jets are simply undervalued. While I don't argue that Indy should be favored, I think the line should be 5 or 6. I am simply playing the value here.

SD -2.5 Bal - Some more overreaction here. Baltimore is played tough by Cleveland, who nobody wants to give credit to, and all of the sudden they are a home dog? I am playing Baltimore here. In fact, this may just be a ML play for me. If the line moves to 3, I may take the points as well. Will decide later in the week.

Dal -9.5 Ten - Playing Dallas here. Tennessee covered against Miami, and are getting a little love. Ten is just plain bad. Dallas should hang 28 on this team easily, and I don't see Ten scoring more than 10 per game all year.

Well, those are my plays for next week. Comments appreciated. Seems like the spreads are really beginning to offer value this week.

[bigboydan]

first off, let me welcome you to the sbrforum

I do like your Indy play, although I don't like your Dallas play.

BOL with your plays bud

[lid73]

Dan, thanks for the kind word. The more I look at the Indy game, the more I think I will split my bet in two.

1/2 unit on ML +420 (pinnacle)
1/2 unit with the 9 points.

Dallas could be scary, but Tennessee has shown nothing this year. We will have to see if Dallas can step on their throat, AND keep their foot there the entire game.

[Seattle Slew]

I'm liking the Patriots in this spot. Brady is usually excellent next out after a bad game from the team, especially on the road, and the defense actually played well against Denver despite being on the field for a long time.

[lid73]

Seattle:

I normally would feel the same, but I think the Patriot team is not as good as it has been historically. I feel that the bettors are overvaluing this team. Brady has not been able to get much going, and their entire offense is not hitting on all cylinders. I think Cinci will put up points, but NE will not be able to hang with them this week.

[STEELCURTAIN3288]

I'm liking the Patriots in this spot. Brady is usually excellent next out after a bad game from the team, especially on the road, and the defense actually played well against Denver despite being on the field for a long time.

I totally agree with you NE screwed me real good last and I think they are do to bounce back!!!!

[josebla89]

i wouldn't count on it; brady used to have weapons aka dieon branch and givens. hes only got tight ends and backs to throw to now. The wide outs they have now a joke. they may have potential but right now they are not in sync with brady. Good coaching and good qb will only take you so far. you have to have at least one go to wide out and right now they dont have it. just look at GB same thing going on there

[STEELCURTAIN3288]

True that you make a good point though you know Brady did you see his face on Sunday night he looked like he wanted to cry and thats not just cause I don't like him!!!!

[STEELCURTAIN3288]

anyone have an early lock they like going into week 4?

[josebla89]

i like the jags and skins on the over for 34.5 nothing is a lock but i do feel good about that one

[josebla89]

i would advise to stay away from the pats. if suday nights game with the broncos showed anything its that their offense missing the two wide outs they used to have. its going to be hard for brady to be consistent this year, This time the coach bit off way more than he could chew. His system is good but not that good you have to have some talent... and the sad thing is they have plenty of room on the salary cap more than alot of other teams i hear

[Seattle Slew]

Pats are also a risky play with the FG situation. The rookie kicker from Memphis might get one more game. If he misses kicks this week, he's gone. Still think 6 points is too much. Cincy doesn't seem like a real mature team just yet. They could let down even with NE coming to town.

I'm liking a teaser with two home teams down to pick-ems. St. Louis over Detroit and KC over San Fran.

[Seattle Slew]

Great point. Look at Bill Parcells. Good coaching doesn't mean much without a good quarterback.

This time the coach bit off way more than he could chew. His system is good but not that good you have to have some talent... and the sad thing is they have plenty of room on the salary cap more than alot of other teams i hear

[Gamehendge]

all this talk about the pats not losing 2 in a row. Remember the teams they had then. This team is 9-7 at best, and will have trouble hanging in with the elites such as cinci

[Gamehendge]

nice write ups bro, gl!

[Zikaris]

I'm going with detroit to =)

I don't really like your GB play but everything else looks all right.

[lid73]

Wow, another crazy weekend. My system has not fared well the first four weeks. Not horribly, but not well. Coming into the weekend I was 8-10-2. So far, with MNF left I am 12-15-2. Some weird action this weekend.

First, the wins:

DET/STL - This game played out the way I saw it. Both teams scored like banshees and STL just scored more. The one game this week that simply went exactly the way it should have.

Jets/Colts - I ended up also placing a small bet on Jets ML. I saw this as an excellent situation for the Jets to pull one out. While it was close, they just fell short. However, I did cash on the spread. The Jets still seem to be a little undervalued and may offer some good spots this season.

SD/BAL - I split my bet on this game. 1/2 unit went on BAL ML, 1/2 went with the points. Once again, the game was pretty much as expected. Low scoring, good defenses, and the home team came out with the win with two fairly evenly matched teams.

Dal/Ten - This was as much a play against Tenn as it was a play on Dallas. Dallas really put it to them. As a perennial public favorite, Dallas may offer some good bet against possibilities.

Losses:

ARI/ATL and SF/KC - MAn, these teams can NOT score. I took the ARI bet kind of expecting Leinart to start. While I don't think Leinart would have made a difference, I thought the spread might have been inflated due to the new QB. However, it looks now like he was never going to start in the first place, and the line was set properly. There really wasn't any movement after we found out Warner was starting. SF, just got whipped. This will happen occasionally. I may bet on them next week to take advantage of any overreaction to this game.

NO/Car - I still think the bet was the proper one here. Carolina gave up a late score to let NO back door the line. Shit happens.

NE/CIN - NE looked really good. Looks like Brady is settling down with his other receivers after Branch left, and they may be coming back together. That being said, Cinci seems to have a mental block when it comes to NE. Worth watching a little closer this season.

Sea/Chi - Pretty happy to lose this bet. I am a big Bears fan. I thought the defenses would keep this one close, and ended up getting 3.5, so took seattle. The Bears are actually BETTER than I thought. While their defense was known to be great, their offense is a legitimate one. Seattle has a pretty good defense, but the Bears shredded them. I knew I lost my bet in the first 5 minutes, so just enjoyed seeing my boys whip up on Seattle. Note to Bears for next time: In situations like this, please win by exactly 3.

Well, that's the lineup. Philly is my bet tonight. I think they will roll up GB and smoke em.