[SBRforum Staff]

John Ryan: Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers

Green Bay is NOT as bad as everyone think and I find it very difficult to believe they are a dog at home against the Bears.

Most importantly, the AiS shows a 77% probability that GB will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and a 56% probability that GB will win the game. Also supporting this graded play is the fact that GREEN BAY is 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) when they allow less than 250 total yards since 1992.

AiS shows an 88% probability that Chicago will NOT gain 250 or more yards in total offense. One of the key matchups in this game that I believe favors GB is Bears RB Thomas Jones facing OLB AJ Hawk. Hawk is a vastly under rated LB, who possesses very strong technique and skill against the run and is a tremendous text book tackler. Hawk is as fast and actually may be faster than Jones and he will wear down Jones more and more with every hit and tackle. Jones struggles as a WR and since he may be slower than Hawk, there will be no pass threat out in the flat for any of the LB to be concerned about.

Game Time: 9/10/2006 4:15:00 PM

Play: Green Bay Packers

By: John Ryan

[goldengoat]

i think green bay is as bad as everyone thinks

but so is chicago's offense

if chicago's top running backs stay hurt or the offensive line doesn't run blobk like it should then that will cripple their playoff hopes

gonna be a low scoring affair and I gotta take chicago cause farve is gonna force something and get burnt

[Illusion]

I am leaning towards taking the Packers +3.5 I do not trust that Bears offense and I think Green Bay will score on that great Bears defense

[slacker00]

I am leaning towards taking the Packers +3.5 I do not trust that Bears offense and I think Green Bay will score on that great Bears defense

The Bears defense/special teams will outscore the Green Bay offense by itself, especially if you count GB turnovers which give a Bears FG when the Bears offense completely stalls. For what it's worth, the Bears defense/special teams will also outscore the Bears offense.

The Packers offense and special teams is just that horrible. Unless the rookie guards & center show something they haven't shown yet, this will be a bloodbath with Favre on his back more than upright. It will only a matter of time before Favre starts throwing up ducks and hail marys that will result in erratic turnovers or maybe even a miraculous TD sprinkled in there. Expect a lot of desperate throws in any event, and we know that's not what wins in the NFL.

Also supporting this graded play is the fact that GREEN BAY is 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) when they allow less than 250 total yards since 1992.

Talk about useless stats! You might as well be quoting the Lombardi Packers ATS. These Packers are not the same team they were in the 90's. Sure they still have Favre & William Henderson, otherwise it's a bunch of rookies and players that probably couldn't play on most NFL teams, especially their O-line.

[Zikaris]

Numbers and percentages are pretty and all but gb just doesn't win this game.

[JohnnyBoy928]

Well now.. the score just speaks for its self...

Numbers and percentages are pretty and all but gb just doesn't win this game.

[McBa1n]

man, biting my tongue as to not scare off easy money for SBR through these touts has been rough.

"Green Bay is NOT that bad" (or whatever).
And then the Sunday paper write-up/mail in write up.
Man, I'm on the wrong side of this gig.
I just get upset when someone who doesn't watch a team touts them as being 'not that bad' and a fellow punter loses money by listening to the advice, if advice is what you want to call it.

TY slacker for mirroring what really is happening.

[goldengoat]

the idea of touts seem illogical anyway

i do ok not great but if a tout is as good as they say then they don't need peeps to pay for their "winners" cause they could earn all their money through their winners...why do they need others' money

i think what they say is to help other people suceed.....well if that's the case do it for free...lol

[McBa1n]

...and that's why I love these forums:>
Free information from fellow scrub punters that grind out a lil here and a lil there.
Free!!!!
Nothing worse than getting information that you PAID for and then losing.

[JohnnyBoy928]

Right! you don;t mind paying if you win, but if you lose then what the hell!!!

There are a lot to choose from out there... be careful

...and that's why I love these forums:>
Free information from fellow scrub punters that grind out a lil here and a lil there.
Free!!!!
Nothing worse than getting information that you PAID for and then losing.