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Moneyline vs. Taking/Laying Points
Last season, I did not do well in the NFL. I always either took or layed the points and never played the moneyline.
For those successful in NFL wagering, I'd like to understand whether you typically played the points or the moneyline and why. Thanks.
As in all answers when it comes to Poker or Sports Betting the answer is "it depends". You need to look for VALUE.Originally Posted by MAB
For instance, right now the point spread offered at Pinnacle for the Monday night game Chargers/Raiders is
Chargers -3 +110
Raiders +3 -118
The reason for this anomaly is the "Raider Nation". The homer factor is huge in this play. I don't believe there is a handicapper in the World that thinks the Raiders will cover, let alone win outright (raiders at +126 on the money line) so there is a premium VALUE to bet the spread on this game taking the Chargers, laying the points and TAKING the juice, rather than paying it.
Just my humble opinion,
just wait til next Monday
Historically you lay the points and take dog ML's, last year fav ML and dogs plus the points, although the favorites covered 58%, so any kind of dogs was not that good
You need a good conversion chart. Once you have it, always take the "better price".
For example, the typical price for a -3 -110 favorite is -160 (or +140 if taking the dog). If you had to choose between -3 -110, or -150 on the moneyline, the -150 is better.
One other thing to consider is the game total. The lower the total, the greater the magnitude of the moneyline. I.E. -3 is comperable to -160 on the ML, but if the total is 34, a fair ML might be -180 with the same -3 spread.
It's generally 10 cents for each 1/2 point
Welcome to SBR MercJr.
Its time for the dogs to make a comeback this year...at least I hope so
I'd take the raiders moneyline unless you really believe in phillip.
He'll probably struggle early in the season even if he excells.
You have to remember the handicappers have their reasoning but their often wrong.
I have no math to back me up as my records are still packed away... however, until about week 8 or so, you can get sick value on the ML and not have to take on much risk.
The way I run it is usually I make 1 ML bet/week and then factor what I put on based upon what other money I've put up and what I can affoard to lose, but also, if that win (which is likely) will cover my other exposure for the week.
The only problem with this is if you miss your ML bet (happened to me 1x last year), you could put yourself in serious trouble. Thankfully, I only put up 4 units, which is less than normal for me, in that game.
There are games teams will not lose no matter what, but those are few every week. There are maybe 1 or 2 of those per week - and you have to cover every angle. One thing to note is, try to avoid betting against QBs that can somehow keep their teams in the game, but play for crappy teams. Last year, McNair was one guy, Favre is another. Eventually, when you pick on those guys, they will burn you when you're not paying attention.
As for the other advice in the thread, etc, it's all very sound... But I don't mind 'overpaying' a bit on the ML when I am 90% sure I'll win. Wins are what it's all about (or avoiding bad loss) :>.
I hope so, the favorites did quite well last season.
You have to remember the betting moves the lines. The Raiders/Yankees/Redsox are three of the biggest values to bet AGAINST in a tight situation because of the homer factor.
I'll admit I'm a Charger "homer", but I think Brees was so "plug and play" that anyone who can hand the ball off to L.T. (hopefully not fumbling 3 times this game) and can throw the ball to two HUGE TE's, one HUGE WR, and Keenan McCardell can take the Bolts all the way this year. The defense looks better than I've seen them in a long time.
I'm definitely laying the 3 pts and TAKING JUICE +107, +110 and +115 at three different books right now. To me, it's a no brainer, especially when the prices that correspond to the other side of my bets are -154, -136, and -140. That to me is the REAL telling factor.
although neither team has an established qb, at least the chargers have the best rb in the league
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