[sherwood]

Baylor +8 over IOWA ST. (2:00 PM)
Both these teams come in at 3-1 and much ado has been made about the Cyclones defense that’s allowed just 18 points per game thus far and has held the opposition to just two rushing TD’s in four games. That’s all very nice indeed but lets take a closer look at that. The Cyclones beat Illinois St in week one by a score of 32-21 and allowing the Redbirds 21 points is no great feat. They then beat Iowa 23-3 and as it turns out the Hawkeyes are not very good. They then went on to beat Army 28-21 and followed that up with a loss to Nebraska 27-20. Don’t know about you but we don’t see anything great there. What we do see is a Cyclone defense that allowed the Cornhuskers to pass for 431 yards and prior to that game Nebraska couldn’t move forward. We also see a Cyclone team that can rack up yards against weak defenses but can’t rack up anything against quality defenses. The Bears do have a very good defense that’s getting better each week. They held the Aggies to just 16 points last week and a mere 287 yards of total offense. Frankly, we just don’t see anything that warrants the Cyclones to be a big eight-point favorite. Should the Bears score first, a distinct possibility indeed, we’ll cash this ticket. If they don’t score first, we’ll still likely cash the ticket. Play: #343 Baylor +8 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).

PURDUE –4½ over Iowa (4:30 PM)
This one sets up real nice for the Boilermakers, who have been beaten in back-to back games after opening the season 2-0. Actually beaten is a bit of an understatement, as the Irish destroyed them last week in their own yard in a game that was supposed to be much closer. We can live with that and because of that lopsided loss plus an OT loss to Minnesota, we get a very beatable number here. Losing to Notre Dame is nothing to hang your head over as the Irish are turning out to be a powerhouse. Iowa was ranked eighth earlier in the year but that was short lived and now they’re not even on the radar. This team, in two road games against the Cyclones and Buckeyes, has been outscored 54-9. Their two wins came against Ball St and Northern Iowa and now they’re expected to stay close to a Boilermaker team that was embarrassed at home last week. We don’t think so. It’s also worth noting that despite the loss to Notre Dame the Boilermakers racked up over 500 yards and scored four TD’s and anything close to that here gets us an easy cover. Bottom line is that the Hawkeyes are not a good club and after playing two juggernaut offenses in back to back weeks, playing this one will appear in slow motion for the Boilermakers. Play: #360 Purdue –4½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).

Illinois +6½ over INDIANA (12:00 PM)
We’re always suspicious when we see a line at 6½ and not seven because that little hook entices action on the chalk and that’s exactly what the books want. What have the Hoosiers accomplished to warrant being nearly a converted TD favorite over the Illini? How about a seven point win over Central Michigan? Uh, no. What about following that up with a four-point win over Nicholls St? We don’t think that does it. Oh, then it must be their dominating win over 1-3 Kentucky. Incidentally, the Wildcats lone win was over Idaho St and they’re allowing the opposition to score about 100 points a game. That can’t be it. Well then, with only one game left it has to be their 41-24 loss to Wisconsin last week. The point is the Hoosiers are way overpriced here and it wouldn’t surprise us a bit to see them lose outright. The Illini defense is allowing a ton of points but that’s a bit misleading. They’ve played three offensive machines in Rutgers, Michigan St. and California so their stats can’t be compared to the Hoosiers, who’ve played three cupcakes. Ron Zook’s offense has not looked a bit out of place and this is quickly becoming a very proficient unit indeed. We’re not going to put too much emphasis on the Illini’s defense, or lack thereof because of the competition they’ve played. Based on competition alone the Hoosiers are outclassed here and at the very least the Illini keeps this one very close. We’re calling the upset here but will gladly accept these generous points. Play: #309 Illinois +6½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).

NHL
Anaheim +1.25 over NASHVILLE
Personally, I watched the Predators game opening night against the Sharkies and they didn’t impress me one bit. They looked flat and the only reason they won is because the Sharks were flatter. San Jose went into Chicago last night and fell behind 3-0 early in the first and eventually lost 6-3. We mention that just to show you how flat the Sharks are and trust us, the Predators didn’t look much better. On opening night these Ducks went into Chicago and beat them rather handily. The Mighty Ducks made some aggressive free agent moves of their own in the off-season and they paid immediate dividends in Wednesday's 5-2 win at Chicago. Rob Niedermayer, the prized defensemen among all free agents, scored a power-play goal, as did Teemu Selanne, who is back with the team for a second time. The special teams were excellent, especially the penalty killing unit, which scored two goals. The power play scored twice also. The Ducks are definitely live here and if Nashville plays like they did on Wednesday, this one won’t be close. Play: Anaheim +1.25 (Risking 1.5 units).

Minnesota +1.21 over PHOENIX
All the experts pretty much agree that the abolition of the red line and other rule changes designed to increase offense should erode the effectiveness of Jacque Lemaire’s defense first style that the Wild has employed since their inception. What the experts don’t tell you is that Lemaire was one of the best offensive players when he played and coached a Devils team that ranked near the top of the league offensively. Lemaire played defense first because teams that did thrived and Lemaire is no idiot. The rules changed and so will the Wild. They scored six times in their opener against Calgary and that’s noteworthy. They picked up smooth skating Brian Rolston and center Todd White from Ottawa, both as free agents. White had a goal and two helpers in the opener. Meanwhile, the Coyotes are 0-2 and have scored four times in two games. In the five previous pre-season games the Coyotes scored nine goals. So, to recap, Phoenix has scored 13 goals in their last seven games and five of those games didn’t mean a thing. Who’s showing a propensity for not being able to put the puck in the net? Not the Wild. Play: Minnesota +1.21 (Risking 1.5 units).

[Illusion]

Good luck today bud.