Patriots sit atop Vegas NFL Rankings
January, 24, 2012
JAN 24
2:55
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By RJ Bell

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The New England Patriots are viewed as the best team among Vegas wiseguys.
Each week, an elite group of bookmakers and professional bettors provide Pregame.com with their private power rankings. These numbers literally influence the worldwide sports-betting market and together form the Vegas Rankings. Four categories convey what the "experts in the desert" truthfully think about the teams:

TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team's home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.

To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:

Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).

To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup:

Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power, which includes Bettor Bias, the same way the actual Vegas line does.

Here are the Vegas NFL Rankings:

Pregame.com's Vegas NFL Rankings
Rank Team Home-Field True Power Bettor Bias Point-Spread Power
t-1 New England Patriots 3.5 100 1.5 101.5
t-1 New Orleans Saints 4 100 1 101
t-1 Green Bay Packers 4 100 0.5 100.5
t-4 New York Giants 3 96 1.5 97.5
t-4 Pittsburgh Steelers 2.5 96 0.5 96.5
t-4 Baltimore Ravens 3 96 0 96
7 San Francisco 49ers 3 95.5 0 95.5
8 Philadelphia Eagles 2.5 94.5 0.5 95
9 Atlanta Falcons 3 92.5 0 92.5
t-10 Dallas Cowboys 2.5 92 0 92
t-10 New York Jets 3 92 0 92
t-12 Houston Texans 3 91.5 0 91.5
t-12 San Diego Chargers 2.5 91.5 0 91.5
t-12 Detroit Lions 3 91.5 0 91.5
15 Miami Dolphins 2 91 0 91
16 Arizona Cardinals 2.5 89 0 89
t-17 Tennessee Titans 2.5 88.5 0 88.5
t-17 Oakland Raiders 2.5 88.5 0 88.5
t-17 Carolina Panthers 3 88.5 0 88.5
t-17 Cincinnati Bengals 3 88.5 0 88.5
t-21 Chicago Bears 2.5 88 0 88
t-21 Seattle Seahawks 3 88 0 88
t-21 Denver Broncos 2.5 88 0 88
t-24 Kansas City Chiefs 2.5 86 0 86
t-24 Washington Redskins 3 86 0 86
26 Buffalo Bills 3 85.5 0 85.5
t-27 Cleveland Browns 2.5 85 0 85
t-27 Minnesota Vikings 3 85 -0.5 84.5
t-29 Jacksonville Jaguars 2 83 0 83
t-29 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2 83 -0.5 82.5
31 Indianapolis Colts 2 82.5 0 82.5
32 St. Louis Rams 2 81 -0.5 80.5
Jimmy Vaccaro

"The more I watch this stuff reminds me just how close winning and losing (and good to bad seasons) are. The Harbaugh brothers' losses -- one on a missed kick and one on a made kick. But I believe the game that determined the season had to be when Giants played at Dallas -- Giants down 12 with five minutes to go. The Giants and Cowboys were both 7-6 and the game basically put one in the driver's seat and one with an almost impossible spot to get in playoffs. On third-and-4, with Romo staring at a wide open Miles Austin, he threw it over his head by 15 yards. A pitch and catch would have basically sealed the win and the Giants might have never smelled the playoffs. Now New York is just a small dog that will get plenty of backing in the Super Bowl."

Jay Kornegay

"We expanded the prop menu in the early '90s because the games were boring and everyone left halfway through the third quarter in many Super Bowl games. Props really took off for the SF/SD game (1995). Everyone knew who was going to win that game so we tripled our prop menu and it was well received. Ever since then, we have continued to grow the SB prop menu.

"I was once accused of having a 'hot line' to the sidelines during the Broncos Super Bowls by an upset guest. Knowing I was from Denver, he thought Coach Shanahan and I were 'very close.' We had a prop up that year for the Broncos/Falcons game regarding if Bubby Brister would have a rushing attempt. We were thinking that if the Broncos were winning at the end of the game, Elway would be taken out and Brister would come in and take a kneeldown. A kneeldown is considered a rushing attempt. And that's exactly what happened. I was then accused of calling the sidelines and asking Coach Shanahan to put in Brister. And yes, that prop did explicitly list that a 'kneeldown' is a rushing attempt."

RJ Bell's notes

• The Patriots are 3-point favorites over the Giants. This equates to New England having a 59 percent chance of winning the game.

• By considering the spread and the total, Vegas projects the approximate score of the game to be: Patriots 29, Giants 26

• The Las Vegas favorite has won 33 of 45 Super Bowls (73 percent).

• When the Patriots last played the Giants in Super Bowl XLII, New England was a 12-point favorite.

• Super Bowl XLVI is expected to be the biggest bet Super Bowl ever, with over $10 billion wagered on the game worldwide. This would be the largest bet single-day sporting event in history. More than half of adult Americans are expected to have some money at risk on the game. People associate sports betting with Las Vegas, but less than 1 percent of Super Bowl action will occur in Nevada.

Projected Spread
We projected the Super Bowl spread using Point-Spread Power and compared them to the current lines. The table is below; it shows you where Vegas pros think the value exists.

Projected Super Bowl Spread
Lines displayed from home team's perspective. True Power projects margin of victory. Point-Spread Power projects point spread.

Home Road Current True Power Point-Spread Power
New England Patriots New York Giants -3 -4 -4
Voters:
Jimmy Vaccaro: Director of sportsbook operations for the Lucky's chain in Nevada.
Jay Korngay: Sportsbook director at Las Vegas Hilton.
Johnny Avello: Sportsbook director at Wynn Las Vegas.
Chris Andrews: Assistant sportsbook director for the Cal Neva chain in Nevada.
Vegas Runner: Professional bettor featured by CNBC and ESPN; columnist for Gaming Today.

Compiled by RJ Bell, founder of Pregame.com