DETROIT –1 over Baltimore
Hey, it’s not so bad to be a Lion these days. They’ve dropped two in a row, sit at 1-2 and are in first place in the division. In addition, Charles Rogers one of the Lions top receivers, figured it would be a better idea to roll and smoke some blunts as opposed to being a bonafide NFL star and now must sit out the next four games. It’s tough being a professional athlete. Anyway, the Ravens come in here with a 1-2 record after getting smoked by Indy and Tennessee, that’s right Tennessee and then barely beating the quarterback-less Jets, 13-3. We don’t care how good your defense is, the fact is when you’re on the field for 40 minutes a game it’s going to catch up to you and at the present moment the Ravens can’t move forward, which means the defense is out there pretty much the whole game. The Lions haven’t performed that well but there was some encouraging signs last week in TB in a game they were in a position to win. A called TD late in the game that was over-ruled (we have no idea how that happened, it was very disputable) cost the Lions the win. The Lions defense did a very god job on Griese and company and most definitely takes a step down in class here. The Ravens can’t score, end of story and on the road against a Lions team that almost always performs well at home is not the remedy for success. Play: Detroit –1 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).
BUFFALO –2½ over Miami
The J.P. Losman era in Buffalo is officially on hold. Mike Mularkey’s creditability has sunk faster than Rafael Palmeiro’s after Mularkey insisted that Losman is the man and will QB the Bills the whole way barring an injury. Plan two; enter Kelly Holcomb. Holcomb last played for the Browns in 2002-4 and he had plenty of good games. He’s a 32 year old experienced QB that is used to this role and the Bills excellent receivers have got to be a little relieved that someone who can get them the ball will be in there. In addition, Willis McGahee is a quality back and now defenses will find the going much tougher against a Buffalo attack that is suddenly not one-sided. Perhaps Mularkey will wake up this Sunday and decide to give the rock more than 11 times to McGahee, something he failed to do against the Saints. Incredible. The Fish come in here 2-1 after beating both the Broncos and the Panthers. While that’s credible indeed, we’re not convinced that the Fish are that good. The spots were good ones and they made the best of them, end of story. Miami has had a week off to cool off and we expect this rather anemic offense to be flatter than normal against a very good Bills defense that hasn’t played near their potential. Much of this whole mess for the Bills can be attributed to Losman’s brutal play and when the offense keeps going three and out is very discouraging for the defense. It all changes here. Bills will be extra fired up against this long time foe and Holcomb will breathe new life into the offense. Play: Buffalo –2½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).
New England +1.32 over ATLANTA
Once again we find the champs as a slight underdog and once again we’re on them. This is just a beautiful spot for the Patriots as they were embarrassed last week for the first time in a long time and don’t think for a second that they’re not going to bounce back. Bill Belichick and his troops thrive in situations like this and you can double their preparation for this one due to the challenge of facing Michael Vick. Belichick is a stud. He will ‘x’ and ‘o’ any opposing coach to death. He’s the mad scientist of football. Give him a game film and a clipboard and he’ll beat you. Embarrass him and the Patriots like last week and we can almost guarantee that it will not happen again. Forget injuries and all the other things you read about when it comes to why this team is 2-2 and not 4-0. They’re making the adjustments and rest assured Bill Belichick is on the job. What we want to know is what’s all the fuss about the Falcons. They beat Philly in week one 14-10 but it wasn’t pretty. They also beat the Bills and the Vikings and now sit with a record of 3-1. All we can say about that is big deal. They should be 3-1 and aside from the win over the Vikes, none of the wins were dominant or convincing. Michael Vick may run like Superman but he sure doesn’t pass like him and when facing a well prepared team he’s fallen flat on his face more times than not. Remember, this is the Patriots were talking about. They aren’t some one-year wonder. They don’t showboat and they don’t rest on their laurels. They’re a well-oiled machine that hates losing and with a 2-3 record staring them in the face they won’t lose here either. Play: New England +1.32 (Risking 1.5 units).
ARIZONA +1.24 over Carolina
We know the Cardinals are loaded with talent and this one sets up rather nicely for this host. The Cardinals were forced to insert Josh McCown last week after Kurt Warner got injured and as it turns out it was a big blessing in disguise. McCown was the Cardinals starter last year and Arizona went on to win three of its first four before that genius Dennis Green yanked him in favor of Shaun King. Huh? We know it was the 49ers he beat but McCown looked very decent and we’ve always liked this guy. We didn’t think he was given a fair shake in Chicago and besides that, when he played for the Bears the offense was weak in talent. Now, McCown has some talent to work with and it says here that he’s here to stay and this story is only going to get better. The Panthers are coming off a not so convincing win over the Packers on Monday night. Favre threw for four TD’s and 302 yards and that’s a huge concern considering Green Bay couldn’t move five yards prior to that one. In addition, the Panthers sacked Favre just once and now have recorded just four sacks in four games this year, another big concern. Frankly, we don’t see much in the Panthers. Jake Delhomme doesn’t do it for us and even against about the weakest secondary in the league last week he threw for just 204 yards. This is not a good spot for Carolina. They’ve already lost to both New Orleans and Miami and they’re coming off a short week. McCown has a week under his belt and now has won four of five games as a starter for this squad. Wake up Dennis Green, Helloooooo!!!!!! Play: Arizona +1.24 (Risking 1.5 units).
The Rest of the Games
Last week (6-4)
Season (20-19)
Chicago +1.35 over CLEVELAND
It would not surprise us one bit to see the Brownies win and cover here, however, the fact remains that this team is in no position to be spotting points to anyone. Sure, they held their own against the Colts in Indianapolis and it was an admirable performance but was it their good play or the Colts lack of interest that made this game closer than expected. Perhaps we’ll find that out this week but don’t expect Kyle Orton to toss five picks like he did against the Bengals. Even with six turnovers (one fumble and five picks) the Bears defense held the Bengals to just 24 points and that’s definitely noteworthy. That was a brutal display by the Bears but the good news is that when teams come up with a stinker they usually bounce back with a good performance. Furthermore, the Bears have had two weeks to stew over that one and this well coached team, you can be sure, is just itching to get back out there. Laying points with weak teams seldom turns out well. Play: Chicago +3 (No bets).
New Orleans +3 over GREEN BAY
We just mentioned how spotting points with weak teams is a bad idea so it would be rather hypocritical of us to endorse the Pack here. You know the Packers are going to win a game or two this year and this could be it when you consider that the Saints are probably the most unpredictable group in the business. The state of mind of a collective team is a definite factor in the outcome of these games and right now it’s just so difficult to know what or how this team is feeling. They have the talent to beat up on the Pack but they might also be so emotionally drained that it would be almost impossible to compete. With all that in mind, we much prefer others to this one and will look elsewhere to invest. However, if we had to we’d take the points. Play: New Orleans +3 (No bets).
NY JETS +3 over Tampa Bay
If this isn’t the trap of the week than we don’t know what is. Looks like an easy call here and you can expect all the squares to be all over this one. After all, the Bucs come in 4-0 and will face a Jets team that has gone from bad to worse and will have to rely on the arm of Vinny Testaverde. In fact, when Vinny got the call he was picking his kids up from school and said, “Gotta go kids, just got a call to QB the Jets so you’ll have to find another way home, see ya later and tell mom I won’t be home for dinner. Oh, by the way, do you know where my helmet is”? Anyway, the Bucs are one of four undefeated teams and this line suggests that after this one they won’t be undefeated anymore. The Jets defense will be the key here. They rank 28th in the NFL against the run after playing four running teams, the Chiefs, Dolphins, Jags and Ravens. Thus, that stat is a little misleading and we’re not putting much into it. The Jets defense is very capable of stopping this offense. Brian Griese is average at best and on the road he’s far below that. The books got creamed last week and we have to trust that this line is extremely sharp and was intended to attract Tampa Bay money. When a game looks too easy it’s usually not and we urge you to proceed with extreme caution here. Tampa Bay is not a 5-0 team and each week they’re looking worse. You play the Jets or you don’t play anything. Play: NY Jets +3 (No bets).
ST. LOUIS –3 over Seattle
If you’re a regular reader of this section than your certainly aware of our disdain for Rams coach Mike Martz. The man is a clown and although the Rams have plenty of talented players at the skilled positions, we seldom can recommend playing the Rams when spotting points because of Martz’s inability to make good decisions. Now, we don’t wish ill will on anyone and Martz is no exception. Martz's status for this one is uncertain due to the discovery of a bacterial infection in a heart valve earlier this week. While we wish him all the best, the fact is his absence is not a small plus, it’s a huge one. In addition, the Seahawks have not shown us that they’ve adjusted anything when playing on the road and the fact is, when this team is away from home they usually lose. Seattle is 2-0 at home and 0-2 on the road and the only thing that’s changed is the year. Seattle’s two wins were both at home against Atlanta, the week after the Falcons beat the Eagles on Monday Night Football, and the other win was over Arizona. The Seahawks can’t put away opponents when they’re down, they have no heart to speak of and they choke when they game is on the line. Sorry, but a road victory, as always for this invader, is highly unlikely. Play: St. Louis –3 (No bets).
Tennessee +3 over HOUSTON
We’re going to put the Texans performance last week in the same category as the Browns when Cleveland came up big against Indy and nearly pulled off the huge upset. Houston almost did the same to the Bengals last week in Cincy. Bettors always remember a team’s last game out and that’s a sure way to go broke. Fact is, the Texans looked brutally awful against the Bills and Steelers before coming up with a game performance in Cincinnati. Again, one has to wonder just how focused the big chalk was. In any case, no matter how you break it down, the Texans scored just 10 points last week and now have a lousy 24 points total in three games. Now, we don’t know about you but when 10 points is considered an outbreak we’re not prepared to lay points with that team. The Titans remain feisty as hell and have played the likes of Baltimore (a 15 point win), and they lost to Indy, Pittsburgh and St. Louis. That’s a pretty tough trio to play and Steve McNair is still one of the best signal callers in the business that just happens to play on a team that possesses a very weak defense. However, after playing the likes of those three, this game should appear in slow motion for the Titans. If we had Monday’s newspaper we still wouldn’t lay points with the Texans. Play: Tennessee +3 (No bets).
San Francisco +15 over INDIANAPOLIS
Can’t remember the last time we saw a spread like this in an NFL game but it has to be quite some time ago. With that said, we just can’t endorse laying 15 points on the road under any circumstance and if the Colts cover this number than good for them. San Francisco will introduce rookie signal-caller Alex Smith, who will be making his first career start after being selected with the No. 1 overall pick in this past April's draft; good for them. What it boils down to is that this one on paper is a complete and utter mismatch and to make matters worse, the 49ers secondary is in complete shambles. Indy is coming off a solid 31-10 lambasting of the Titans while the then winless Cardinals crushed the 49ers in Mexico. Can this one go any other way? Probably not but we still refuse to lay 15 road points. Look elsewhere. Play: San Francisco +15 (No bets).
DALLAS +3½ over Philadelphia
Not a chance are we endorsing the Eagles here, spotting road points in this intense rivalry. The Eagles are getting it done with smoking mirrors and their 3-1 record is about as misleading as it comes. They lost to Atlanta in the opener before beating up on San Fran to even their record at 1-1. Philly then went on to beat Oakland and K.C and they were the second best team on the field in both games. The Chiefs blew a huge first half lead by moronic play calling and maybe someone should point out to these wizard coaches that when you have a big lead and two great backs it’s not a bad idea to run the ball. If I was coaching the Chiefs and was given an 18 point lead at the half and had Holmes and Johnson on my side, I would not lose the game. Now go have a good cry Dick. Anyway, Philly hasn’t done anything special this year and have not shown us enough to warrant spotting road points. With Drew Bledsoe you’re never sure what you’re going to get. However, the Boys always play this team tough in their own backyard and this one should be no different. It’s worthy to note the Dallas has a road win over San Diego and only a miracle prevented them from beating Washington. Dallas should be 3-1 and as a home dog they’re definitely worthy of serious consideration. Play Dallas +3½ (No bets).
WASHINGTON +7 over Denver
My colleague Randall the Handle and I disagree on this one and with his 9-3 record thus far I’m not about to go against one of his best bets of the week. With that said, we’ll put up Randall’s pick in this spot. He writes: The Redskins offense is not the most proficient unit but their defense is tighter than Joan Rivers’ face. That makes the points being offered here very attractive against a Denver team that has been erratic in the past. The Redskins are allowing a stingy 83 yards per game on the ground and that allows them to stay close enough to win games. Denver will host champion Patriots next week and ‘Skins RB Clinton Portis should be motivated against former club. Play: Washington +7 (No bets)
Sherwood is new here, he's a real pro. Be nice to him ! He's a nice asset for this forum. He gives reasons for his selections, which is always nice. I don't bet everything he does, but like to hear his thoughts. I often run ideas through him, to pick his brain. He's a good guy !
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