Updated: Thursday, January 19, 2012
Ravens-Patriots: 10 observations
Ravens-Patriots: 10 observations
By Matt Williamson
Scouts Inc.
Baltimore at New England
When: 3:00 PM ET
Watch: CBS
Preview



After breaking down film of both teams, Scouts Inc. offers 10 things to watch in the AFC Championship Game.


1. Handle a very difficult road trip: Tom Brady is 9-2 in the playoffs at home, while the Ravens were just 4-4 on the road during the regular season. Not only are the Patriots at home, a very difficult place for the opponent to play, but they also have an extra day to prepare after dismantling the Broncos on Saturday night. The Ravens have struggled on special teams -- not necessarily with their kicking specialists, though -- during the regular season, but their special teams were the difference in their home win over Houston in the divisional playoffs.

2. Slow down the tight ends! Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez accounted for four touchdowns and 261 yards of total offense in the Patriots' lopsided victory over Denver. These two are a matchup nightmare for every defense they face. Gronkowski rarely leaves the field and is the prototype at the position. He is a power player with ridiculous size, balance, explosion and hands. Hernandez is the most difficult to label, as he is as much wide receiver as he is tight end and doesn't regularly line up in a traditional tight end position. Baltimore might choose to count Hernandez as a wide receiver, which will put it in nickel coverage a high percentage of the time. As a new wrinkle that Denver obviously was not ready for, the Patriots handed the ball to Hernandez, who is excellent with the ball in his hands by tight end standards. Hernandez did suffer a head injury late in the game; if he's unable to play, that will be a big blow to New England's offense. Ray Lewis isn't what he once was in coverage, Bernard Pollard is much better against the run than pass, and overall, defending the middle of the field is a problem for the Ravens. Brady and this offense overall are fantastic in the red zone. Three of Gronkowski's 10 catches against Denver went for touchdowns en route to his racking up 145 receiving yards. The Ravens' red zone defense is superb, especially against the pass. That battle of strengths near the goal line could be pivotal.

3. Don't forget about the wideouts: Although their tight ends are fantastic, the Patriots are not too shabby at wide receiver. Deion Branch is now healthy, and Wes Welker remains the slot receiver against whom every slot receiver in the league is judged. However, the Ravens have done a great job of limiting opposing wide receiver production. The Ravens' cornerbacks, led by Lardarius Webb, who had two interceptions against Houston, are an underrated crew. Webb could find himself on Welker a high percentage of the time, often out of the slot.

4. Or the Patriots' underrated running game: Running against the Ravens is a very difficult chore, but Houston, which might have the best running game in the NFL, did have quite a bit of success (131 yards). Lewis was very active in that game, and his recognition skills remain elite. Although he's not flashy, the beauty of Pats RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis is his reliability. Stevan Ridley is more talented than Green-Ellis and is sure to see some touches, but Danny Woodhead could see more snaps than either of those bigger backs. Woodhead is as much slot receiver as he is pure running back, and the Pats will move him all over the formation to try to get him matched against a linebacker in coverage. With Woodhead on the field, the Ravens are likelier to go to their lighter sub packages, which the Patriots can exploit with their ground game. It is easy to overlook, but the Patriots are an excellent run-blocking team, and they averaged just less than 5 yards per carry against Denver.

5. Matchup to watch: Ravens RB Ray Rice vs. Patriots ILB Jerod Mayo: It is no secret that Rice is the key to Baltimore's offense. Baltimore has not lost this season (9-0) when Rice received at least 20 carries. He is an excellent runner inside or on the edge and is a real force in the passing game as well. But the Ravens could average only 2.8 yards per rush against the Texans, which won't cut it in New England. Mayo, the leader of the Patriots' defense, looks healthier than at any point of the season. Getting Brandon Spikes and Patrick Chung back from injury was also a great boost to the Patriots' run defense against Denver. In front of Mayo is Vince Wilfork. Wilfork and the other interior defensive linemen dominated Denver's guards and center. The Ravens' interior line is far superior to the Broncos', however. The screen pass to Rice is a staple of Baltimore's offense and a crutch for QB Joe Flacco. Look for Mayo & Co. to key on that play -- as Houston did.

6. Start fast: The Patriots are very tough to play against when they start the game playing at a very high level (see their 35-7 lead at halftime in the divisional round). The Ravens are not built to come back from a big deficit. Also, the Patriots' defense is exceptional with in-game adjustments and is a much better unit late in games rather than at the start.

7. Get to Flacco: Houston sacked Flacco five times, and New England also recorded five sacks in the divisional round. Flacco's biggest weakness is dealing with bodies around him in the pocket. His overall pocket presence is very questionable. The Ravens' offensive line is much better on the interior than at tackle, but the entire unit will be tested mentally with a wide array of blitzes. Look for Bill Belichick to have some wrinkles that Flacco has yet to see on tape.

8. Do not get abused through the air: With the exception of the most recent game against Tim Tebow & Co., passing yards have been very easy to come by against the Patriots. It is mostly opposing wide receivers who are doing the damage. Anquan Boldin, a possession receiver who excels with the ball in his hands, is clearly the Ravens' best wideout, but overall this is a group that struggles to consistently gain separation. A key to the Ravens' passing attack is its ability to hit the long ball, usually to Torrey Smith. Look for New England to force Baltimore to sustain offense by eliminating the over-the-top threat. Although the Patriots allow a lot of yardage through the air, they have more stability in the secondary and have improved by moving Devin McCourty to safety on passing downs. Also, although the Pats' red zone defense is solid overall, it is quite good against the pass in that crucial area of the field.

9. Get to Brady: If the Ravens are unable to disrupt Brady in the pocket, Baltimore will be in for a very long day. Brady is a difficult quarterback to sack, and Denver couldn't get to him in the divisional round. He moves extremely well within the pocket, has a tremendous feel for the rush and is superb at reading defenses pre- and post-snap. The Ravens were unable to record a sack against the Texans, and overall, their pass rush has really fallen off lately. Led by Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs, the Ravens are very deep with their defensive line and feature a fine rotation depending on the situation. Baltimore's defensive line needs to control this game.

10. Matchup to watch: Patriots QB Tom Brady vs. Ravens S Ed Reed: Reed was injured (foot) at the very end of the divisional-round game. If he is out, that is a massive problem for the Ravens' pass defense. But if Reed is right, this is about as good a battle between two future Hall of Fame players as you will see. Reed's ability to patrol the deep portions of the field is unmatched. He can bait quarterbacks and anticipate routes exceptionally well. But Brady isn't the typical quarterback. Brady is a master of controlling tempo and pace. He has total command of the offense and every situation. The Ravens also should expect Brady to go up-tempo throughout this game, which doesn't allow the defense to substitute while also wearing it down with the extreme pace of the offense.


Prediction
Baltimore 17
New England 30