1. #1
    RealRickBennett
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    Smart Money on Championship Sunday...

    The smart money was on Houston for the first two rounds of the playoffs, and I gave you the Texans both weeks.

    Wildcard Round
    Divisional Round

    Last week I told you to grab the 7.5 points early in the week before the line had a chance to move down to 7 (which would have made the difference between a win and a push - I truly thought the sharp money would come in hard on Houston at 7.5 and move the line down).

    I also had the Ravens as the straight-up winner and the Texans as a winner ATS; plus, I was just one 4th quarter field goal away from giving you the EXACT final score. (I predicted: BAL 17, HOU 13; actual final: BAL 20, HOU 13).

    This week I'm on the Niners. The Niners were a strong lean for me last week, but not quite enough to declare it a play. This week I like them to win at home and cover the -2.5. I see a fairly close game, but the Niner's D will successfully stunt Manning's passing game and create enough turnovers to produce a cover. Prediction: SF 24, NYG 17.

    · SF (-2.5) over nyg

    As for the Ravens/Pats matchup, I have no strong lean at all. But if I was forced to choose a side, I would place importance on two key variables: first, Ed Reed will be playing at less than 100%, which is a MAJOR setback for the Ravens' pass D versus Brady; and second, Belichick/Brady are are clicking on all cylinders and peaking at the right time. I think 7 is a pretty solid number for this game, but I'll lean slightly towards NE minus 7. Prediction: NE 35, BAL 27.

    Season Records:

    · 2011-12 Postseason: 2-0
    · Money Picks 2011-12 Season: 25-14-1 (64.1% - Reg Season and Post Season combined)
    Last edited by RealRickBennett; 01-20-12 at 09:38 AM. Reason: Formatting

  2. #2
    SteveRyan
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    Nice write-up.

    Yes, all signs point to San Fran covering.

    8-0-1 ATS at home
    8-1 at home
    Allowed over 20 pts at home only 1 time during regular season
    Beat NY without Frank Gore in November
    Better defense
    Better special teams
    Better coaching
    5-3-0 ATS on the road (Giants)

    Do we need anything else to convince us??

    I have a strong lean on the over/42 also.

    I've got the 49'ers at 30 points in this game. If this happens, that leaves a wide range of points for the Giants (13-27) where San Fran covers and goes over 42.

    If you think 30 is too strong, let me know what you think.
    Last edited by SteveRyan; 01-20-12 at 12:41 AM. Reason: Stat correction

  3. #3
    nj1035
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveRyan View Post
    Nice write-up.

    Yes, all signs point to San Fran covering.

    7-0-1 ATS at home
    Undefeated at home
    Allowed over 20 pts at home only 1 time during regular season
    Beat NY on the road without Frank Gore in November
    Better defense
    Better special teams
    Better coaching
    5-3-0 ATS on the road (Giants)

    Do we need anything else to convince us??

    I have a strong lean on the over/42 also.

    I've got the 49'ers at 30 points in this game. If this happens, that leaves a wide range of points for the Giants (13-27) where San Fran covers and goes over 42.

    If you think 30 is too strong, let me know what you think.
    You take the regular season stats. I'll take the hot team in January. We'll see who comes out on top!

  4. #4
    RealRickBennett
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    I use certain statistical metrics to determine my sides plays every week. I've got that system more-or-less locked in (been using it profitablyfor three years) & it clearly points to SF.

    And yes, I've also created totals systems, but with mixed results at best... certainly nothing I'm going to bank on at this point. So, if someone feels strongly about a totals play, I'm definitely not going to try to talk them out of it.

    That said, I've read that the weather is looking pretty nasty for Sunday in the Bay - supposedly it will be wet and windy. Plus, Alex Smith for me is one of those QB's that's going to be an effective game manager and avoid the big mistakes; however, he's not typically going to extend the field to light up the scoreboard like Brees/Brady/Rogers. My gut tells me that 30 is pretty high for Smith on a muddy/windy track. The Niners have averaged 28 at home, and along with the potential weather I think the game will be played a little tighter to the vest than normal considering the stakes.

    Good luck with whatever you choose!
    Last edited by RealRickBennett; 01-19-12 at 06:08 PM.

  5. #5
    RealRickBennett
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    We shall see NJ... I admit that the G-men are a little scary to bet against right now, but my system is my system, and as long as I'm right 60% of the time, that's all I can realistically ask for.

  6. #6
    SteveRyan
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    Quote Originally Posted by RealRickBennett View Post
    I use certain statistical metrics to determine my sides plays every week. I've got that system more-or-less locked in (been using it profitablyfor three years) & it clearly points to SF.

    And yes, I've also created totals systems, but with mixed results at best... certainly nothing I'm going to bank on at this point. So, if someone feels strongly about a totals play, I'm definitely not going to try to talk them out of it.
    Thanks for the response. 30 might be a little too high. I want to parlay the spread and total, so it's hard for me to lay -2.5 and take the under. More analysis necessary here I guess.

  7. #7
    SteveRyan
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    Quote Originally Posted by nj1035 View Post
    You take the regular season stats. I'll take the hot team in January. We'll see who comes out on top!
    Go ahead!

    Base your pick off one performance and I'll pick mine based upon 17.

  8. #8
    late4thegame
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveRyan View Post
    Go ahead!

    Base your pick off one performance and I'll pick mine based upon 17.
    Last 4 games, Giants are 4-0, scoring 121 and giving up 50. Yes, they are scary right now.

    BTW, I think SF earlier win against NY was at HOME, not on the road.
    Last edited by late4thegame; 01-19-12 at 08:30 PM.

  9. #9
    nj1035
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveRyan View Post
    Go ahead!

    Base your pick off one performance and I'll pick mine based upon 17.
    It's not based on one game, in case you haven't noticed the GMen have been playing lights out the past month. That's enough for me. I've seen this episode before.

    Weather is the only thing that might save the Niners at this point.

  10. #10
    chopperocker
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    Coughlin/Manning Giants are 19-12 SU and 21-10 ATS as a Road Dog

    i got 2 dimes on NYG +2.5 -110
    Attached Files
    Last edited by chopperocker; 01-19-12 at 09:09 PM.

  11. #11
    SteveRyan
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    Quote Originally Posted by late4thegame View Post

    BTW, I think SF earlier win against NY was at HOME, not on the road.
    Your right. I made a couple errors on those stats I posted.

  12. #12
    RealRickBennett
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    Chopper... yes, the Giants are among the best road teams in the league, yet the Niners are 18-6 SU and 17-5-2 ATS at HOME over the last three years... plus 8-1 SU and 8-0-1 ATS this year including playoffs... just sayin'.

  13. #13
    psufan
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    This game can go either way. Wow. I feel like these matchups and lines are really good this year for championship sunday.

  14. #14
    beerman2619
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    Strange lookin at one website says 57 percent of the money coming in on the Giants. But the line has moved from opening Giants -1 to Giants plus 2.5.

  15. #15
    beerman2619
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    Quote Originally Posted by nj1035 View Post
    It's not based on one game, in case you haven't noticed the GMen have been playing lights out the past month. That's enough for me. I've seen this episode before.

    Weather is the only thing that might save the Niners at this point.

    Uh 49ers been playin pretty damn good also. Beat a Saints team that beat the Giants 49 to 24. Anyway evenly match game but the way the line is moving looks like 49ers right play.

  16. #16
    chopperocker
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    playoff favs of -2.5 or less are 6-9 SU and 4-11 ATS since '01-'02 season.

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