1. 01-27-12 10:18 AM #36
    guil0000
    guil0000's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-11
    Posts: 472
    Betpoints: 2115

    but in original poster's case if you hedge the semi's you kind of have to hedge the finals also
    Last edited by guil0000; 01-27-12 at 10:54 AM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 01-27-12 10:28 AM #37
    p19101
    Giants!
    p19101's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-17-11
    Posts: 1,419
    Betpoints: 24

    Quote Originally Posted by guil0000 View Post
    but in original poster's case if you edge the semi's you kind of have to edge the finals also
    That is true, in his case I'd at least cover my stakes. But as I tried to say, no one can tell him the amount to hedge as we don't know his economical situation and so on. There are more factors to it than just what's optimal from a theoretical mathematical point of view.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 01-28-12 09:23 PM #38
    big cheyo
    big cheyo's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-20-11
    Posts: 337
    Betpoints: 7

    its always good to secure money, and in superbowls and top games the public side loses many times and vegas wins, and this time the public is on NYG, last time vegas lost money on a superrbowl was with the NYG as a public favorite, so who knows, secure some money atleast rather than lose
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 01-28-12 10:16 PM #39
    HNIC
    HNIC's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-01-11
    Posts: 24
    Betpoints: 0

    lol don't listen to these idiots telling you not to hedge. Only YOU can decide... If it is a life changing amount of money to YOU then take the guaranteed money. To some other people it might not much money and they probably won't hedge it. Everyone's situation is different.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 01-28-12 11:14 PM #40
    purplesleuth
    purplesleuth's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-28-12
    Posts: 6
    Betpoints: 0

    I would personally hedge and play $15,000 on the Patriots money line. As people stated, the main reason not do this would be if you are relatively wealthy and feel that the giants are the right side.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 01-29-12 12:29 AM #41
    Monte
    Monte's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-21-10
    Posts: 2,056
    Betpoints: 1

    Sample size would never be large enuf to speak about a "long run" for such lucky shot futures.
    If you hedge some and giants win, you will still be satisfied. If you hedge nothing, it will be a letdown.
    Ppl are different obviously, but unless you have access to weak bookmakers, speaking about -EV is a bit funny when futures usually are -EV anyway, from the start...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 01-29-12 08:56 AM #42
    Big Bear
    Love your neighbor
    Big Bear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-11
    Posts: 43,253
    Betpoints: 14

    yeah hedge. always hedge
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 01-29-12 08:34 PM #43
    paranoyd androyd
    paranoyd androyd's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-01-11
    Posts: 6,459
    Betpoints: 134523

    another hedge all your profits away thread unreal
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 01-29-12 08:41 PM #44
    5mike5
    NA$CAR PSYCHIC
    5mike5's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-21-11
    Posts: 50,965
    Betpoints: 29066

    Quote Originally Posted by paranoyd androyd View Post
    another hedge all your profits away thread unreal
    may win a huge bet and hedge it away....good grief
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 01-31-12 02:51 PM #45
    kirkdiese
    kirkdiese's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-16-09
    Posts: 21
    Betpoints: 560

    Hedging is giving away value. If you were gonna hedge, why didn't you just take Giants to win the nfc? If you need the money, then you should do it for as much as you need to, but its no different than taking insurance in black jack, minus EV for the player in the long run. But its a personal choice based on your economic situation.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 02-01-12 09:11 PM #46
    Ruff
    Ruff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 647
    Betpoints: 7

    Ok going to Hedge my 1k original play at 30-1 plus the 2k im down from the SF game.
    -135 On pats to break even if Pats win. 4050/3000. If Giants win big payday 22950.
    Go NYG!!!! I look at it as nothing to lose and almost 23k to win.
    Do I "need" the cash ... No, hence the break even on Pats win.
    The more I hedge the more I eat into the 30-1 original play. I now have the Giants at +425 with zero risk. Will I be pissed if Pats win? Of course!! who wouldn't?
    I like those odds.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 02-02-12 05:03 AM #47
    H1Cypher
    H1Cypher's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-24-11
    Posts: 1,494
    Betpoints: 299

    Quote Originally Posted by Ruff View Post
    Ok going to Hedge my 1k original play at 30-1 plus the 2k im down from the SF game.
    -135 On pats to break even if Pats win. 4050/3000. If Giants win big payday 22950.
    Go NYG!!!! I look at it as nothing to lose and almost 23k to win.
    Do I "need" the cash ... No, hence the break even on Pats win.
    The more I hedge the more I eat into the 30-1 original play. I now have the Giants at +425 with zero risk. Will I be pissed if Pats win? Of course!! who wouldn't?
    I like those odds.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 02-02-12 12:57 PM #48
    SparJMU
    SparJMU's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-10
    Posts: 1,648
    Betpoints: 7523

    Where did you place your bet? I had a future on the Stl. Cardinals to win the World Series for $25,000 and I simply was not paid. Be sure you are confident with the source of your wager before you go hedging anything.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 02-02-12 06:34 PM #49
    D3 Mighty Ducks
    D3 Mighty Ducks's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-17-09
    Posts: 11,933
    Betpoints: 782

    Let it ride out
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 02-02-12 06:34 PM #50
    D3 Mighty Ducks
    D3 Mighty Ducks's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-17-09
    Posts: 11,933
    Betpoints: 782

    Quote Originally Posted by SparJMU View Post
    Where did you place your bet? I had a future on the Stl. Cardinals to win the World Series for $25,000 and I simply was not paid. Be sure you are confident with the source of your wager before you go hedging anything.
    hahahahahahah wow!!!!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 02-03-12 09:29 AM #51
    Ruff
    Ruff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 647
    Betpoints: 7

    Quote Originally Posted by SparJMU View Post
    Where did you place your bet? I had a future on the Stl. Cardinals to win the World Series for $25,000 and I simply was not paid. Be sure you are confident with the source of your wager before you go hedging anything.
    Placed it with my local that I have been doing business with for over 6 years.
    I have not had to come up with any of the hedge monies upfront if that's also what your inferring.
    Just an fyi to all speaking of slow paying books is sportsbook.ag... to me over 6 weeks to get 1.2k from them.
    Go GIANTS!!!!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 02-03-12 01:16 PM #52
    SparJMU
    SparJMU's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-10
    Posts: 1,648
    Betpoints: 7523

    Ruff, my play was with a local who has also been in business for close to a decade. Are you 100% positive this guy is going to pay you? Do you understand that if the Giants win, he will face the decision, 'Pay someone $30K, or simply close up show and ignore him'. Are you ready to go to the police or threaten this local with violence? I am guessing the answer to both questions is "No".

    I hate to be so negative, but I want you to be 100% comfortable before you put $5K on the Pats and end up not seeing a penny.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 02-03-12 09:00 PM #53
    Ruff
    Ruff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 647
    Betpoints: 7

    Quote Originally Posted by SparJMU View Post
    Ruff, my play was with a local who has also been in business for close to a decade. Are you 100% positive this guy is going to pay you? Do you understand that if the Giants win, he will face the decision, 'Pay someone $30K, or simply close up show and ignore him'. Are you ready to go to the police or threaten this local with violence? I am guessing the answer to both questions is "No".

    I hate to be so negative, but I want you to be 100% comfortable before you put $5K on the Pats and end up not seeing a penny.
    To say again I am NOT taking any money out of my pocket. And the answer is yes he will pay. I've won "large" multiple weeks with him and the cash is in my hand on Monday. This is considered "large". We all know books had bad spell this NFL season and I know of many shops that closed up but again im confident that i will be paid if the Giants win.
    If not live and learn.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 02-04-12 02:57 AM #54
    the_situation
    the_situation's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-22-10
    Posts: 2,735
    Betpoints: 6309

    Sadly your going to be breaking even
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 02-04-12 08:26 AM #55
    Ruff
    Ruff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 647
    Betpoints: 7

    Quote Originally Posted by the_situation View Post
    Sadly your going to be breaking even
    Indeed I may
    Gluck to you and your wagers
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 02-05-12 09:03 PM #56
    Ruff
    Ruff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 647
    Betpoints: 7

    Quote Originally Posted by the_situation View Post
    Sadly your going to be breaking even
    Sadly i WIN 23K!!!!!
    AND if Mannigham wins MVP tag on another 4500
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 02-05-12 10:09 PM #57
    Qtip
    Qtip's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-11
    Posts: 367
    Betpoints: 176

    Quote Originally Posted by Ruff View Post
    Sadly i WIN 23K!!!!!
    AND if Mannigham wins MVP tag on another 4500
    Congrats!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 02-08-12 07:46 AM #58
    Ruff
    Ruff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 647
    Betpoints: 7

    Quote Originally Posted by Qtip View Post
    Congrats!
    Thanks Q!!!!! Cash in hand!!!!! for all the doubter's.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  24. 02-08-12 10:21 AM #59
    p19101
    Giants!
    p19101's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-17-11
    Posts: 1,419
    Betpoints: 24

    Quote Originally Posted by Ruff View Post
    Thanks Q!!!!! Cash in hand!!!!! for all the doubter's.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
First 12
Top
« Previous Thread | NFL Betting | Next Thread »