After an absolutely dismal start, college football seems to be getting back on track, though the Iowa St. debacle cost us 18.99* last week. NFL continues rolling along.
NCAA Football Overall (52-60-0, -57.00*)
NCAAF Sides (38-44, -45.40*)
7* WSU -13.5 vs. Stanford
We’re not sure how this one can stay close. Stanford followed a loss to Division-II UC-Davis by getting blown away at home, giving up 453 passing yards last week to Oregon. They cannot run the ball to eat up clock. Meanwhile, the Cougars gained 638 yards, including 531 passing, last week against Oregon St.
Washington State will still be steaming after blowing a big lead at Oregon St. last week (doomed by five turnovers), and will take out all their frustration on the Cardinal, who they have revenge against from last year. It’s over at halftime.
Wazzou 56, Stanford 21
6* Wyoming -6 vs. TCU
No reason not to like Wyoming this week. The Cowboys have covered ten in a row, and seven in a row in Laramie, and are the best non-major conference team in college football. TCU has forced 16 turnovers so far this season, but that’s not a problem for Wyoming, as they protect the ball as well as anybody. TCU has given up 56 first downs the past two weeks, and we look for QB Bramlett to exploit this. Meanwhile, TCU’s offense is unstable, as the QB and RB positions are dealing with injuries.
Through 7+ quarters in Wyoming first two home games, the Cowboys had outscored their opponents 80-3, before UNLV scored two irrelevant touchdowns last week. That only serves to keep this line from being anywhere near what it should be.
Wyoming 41, TCU 24
5* Purdue -4.5 vs. Iowa
Purdue has been shredded by two of the best offenses in football the last two weeks, but will look better this week at home. Remember, the Boilers return all their starters from last year’s very good defense. There is no questioning Purdue’s offense.
Purdue has revenge in this game, and will look to bury the Hawkeyes. That seems likely, as Iowa has been outscored 54-9 in their two road games this season. They flat cannot run the ball, being outrushed in those two games by an average margin of 242-82. This is a host series, and Purdue continues their ATS dominance at home.
Purdue 34, Iowa 20
5* Toledo -20 vs. Eastern Michigan
Toledo has had to live with their 44-14 loss at the hands of a very solid Fresno St. team for 11 days, in a game where they actually outgained the Bulldogs. Now they make their third trip to the bakery this season, having beaten a muffin (Western Illinois, 62-14) and a cupcake (Western Michigan, 56-23) in their two previous home games. QB Gradkowski is back this week after watching his team’s less than stellar performance last week. He will at least duplicate what he did last year (22-27, 338 yards). Toledo has covered 11 of their last 13 as home favorites, and that continues this week.
Toledo 52, Eastern Michigan 20
4* Nevada -8.5 vs. Idaho
Idaho has injuries across their team, especially on their offensive line. They travel to Nevada, where the Wolfpack have finally developed a solid offense led by RB Mitchell, who ran for 114 last week.
Neither of these teams is very good against the spread, but Nevada is 6-2 against the number in their last eight home games. Idaho hasn’t covered any of their last six road games after a home game.
Nevada 34, Idaho 17
4* Oklahoma +14 -105 vs. Texas (N)
It’s always nice to get two touchdowns with a team that has beaten their opponent five straight years, most of which were blowouts (Sooners have outscored Longhorns by 133 points the last five years). The media is acting as if everything has changed between these two programs, but as usual, they are overreacting. Texas has had equal or more talent than Oklahoma three of the last five years, but continues to out-coached and out-played.
Not much is being made of the Sooners’ dominant performance last week. In a 45-23 game that was nowhere near that close (K State only managed 38 total yards in the first half), the Sooners finally found a passing game, which will open up lanes for star running backs Peterson and Jones. This one stays close, and the pressure overwhelms Texas. The underdog has covered 13 of the last 17 in this series, and we’re calling for the outright upset.
Oklahoma 24, Texas 21
4* Vandy +16 vs. LSU
Gary Public saw Vanderbilt revert to old ways and lose to Middle Tennessee at home last week, while LSU went to Mississippi St. and won easily. Vandy actually should put up more points against a soft LSU defense than they did against MTSU. LSU will get some points, and probably the win, but won’t make this ugly.
LSU 33, Vandy 24
4* Florida -27 vs. Mississippi St.
We tried to find a way not to bet on Florida in this spot, but there was no way around it. The most shocking upset of last season was Mississippi St. beating Florida 38-31 after losing to Division-II Maine. With new HC Meyer in town, the Gators extract revenge.
As we said last week in our write-up on the Florida-Alabama game, Urban Meyer’s gimmick offense will not work against the powerhouse defenses of the SEC. Mississippi St. does not qualify. Against teams with less speed and talent than his, Urban Meyer is nearly unbeatable. In 2000, Miss. St. stunned Florida at home. The final next year in the Swamp? 52-0.
Florida 52, Miss. St. 14
3* Georgia +3 @ Tennessee
Now that Florida and LSU have shown they are not national powerhouses, the two most overrated teams in the SEC battle in Neyland Stadium. We will side with the better of these two teams, with revenge from last year.
Georgia QB Shockley presents a set of challenges for the very good Vol defense. On the other side, Tennessee QB Claussen hasn’t proven himself with any consistency, and the Georgia defense has already intercepted eight passes this year.
The Vols haven’t covered any of their last five home games. Georgia has won 16 of their last 18 road games.
Georgia 23, Tennessee 17
3* Penn St. +3.5 -105 vs. Ohio St.
This is Ohio St.’s first road game of the season, and that should be the difference in a tightly contested game. After years of being stagnant offensively, the Nittany Lions have finally shown big play ability, while their defense continues to impress.
Last year, Ohio St. beat Penn St. 21-10 in the Horseshoe. But, their offense was only able to muster one of those touchdowns, and it will only be more difficult this year in Happy Valley. The Lions take a key step towards doing what was recently unthinkable, winning the Big 10.
Penn St. 20, Ohio St. 17
2* Virginia Tech -34.5 vs. Marshall
Basically this Marshall team has quit for the season after the heartbreaking loss to Kansas St., and the coaching situation being in constant flux. It took them OT to beat SMU, the worst road team in the nation, last week. On the other side, Virginia Tech has been the best team in all of college football so far this season. They are first in scoring defense, second in passing defense, third in total defense, and second in turnover margin. Everyone knows about the amazing play of their special teams. Now Vick and the offense have become equally dominant, and this team has now covered 12 of their last 13. The Hokies have already won 45-0 twice this season, so…
Virginia Tech 45, Marshall 0
2* Nebraska +4 -105 vs. Texas Tech
This is the ultimate revenge game. Last year, Texas Tech demolished Nebraska 70-10, the worst loss in Nebraska‘s fine history. We aren’t sold on this year’s Texas Tech offensive edition, especially on the road in a tough environment. The Cornhuskers have the best running back on the field, and the passing game is finally starting to make strides (431 passing yards last week against a better defense than he will face this week). Tech’s defense is untested, and their cupcake schedule dooms them late in this one.
Nebraska 31, Texas Tech 24
2* La. Tech -3 vs. Hawaii
Hawaii has been going back and forth to the mainland recently, and we just don’t think they’ll be up for this game. Louisiana Tech has proven capable of beating up on teams of equal or lesser strength, and we think that continues.
La Tech 31, Hawaii 21
NCAAF Totals (14-16-0, -11.60*)
5* Minnesota @ Michigan Over 55.5
4* Oregon @ AZ St. Over 68.5
3* Baylor @ Iowa St. Under 43
3* Ohio St. @ Penn St. Under 42
2* Wake Forest @ Florida St. Under 44.5
2* Air Force @ Navy Under 56.5
2* Virginia @ BC Under 48*
5* Jaguars -2.5 vs. Bengals
Here’s an odd stat - The Jaguars have covered their last five Sunday night games, while the Bengals have not covered any of their last five Sunday night games. But that is merely a sidebar to the real reason we are big on the Jaguars.
The Bengals, long the joke of the NFL, are now receiving much praise for their early season performance. Teams in this situation (similar to Vanderbilt) have a tendency to fizzle out when they run into adversity. The Jaguars match up very well with the Bengals, as Cincy’s lone area of concern this season has been stopping the run. Fred Taylor should get things going early, which will make things easy on QB Leftwich.
On the other side of the ball, the Bengals will not be able to run the ball with much success, as the heart of the Jaguars defense is in their tackles, and stopping the run. Both of Cincy’s centers suffered injuries last week, and their offense as a whole will struggle.
Jaguars 21, Bengals 10
3* Jets +3.5 vs. Buccaneers
We could be wrong, but we feel Vinny Testeverde is the perfect solution to the Jets recent woes. He will control this game, and allow the Jets to do enough to get the win. The Jets will be able to handle the Bucs offense without their banged up star running back Williams.
Tampa has only covered 3 of their last 15 road games, and are historically bad ATS (8-21) in non-conference games. This is a perfect situation for a letdown, and we think the Jets pick up a much-needed win.
Jets 16, Bucs 13
3* Patriots +3 @ Falcons
The Falcons would be better off playing Matt Schaub at QB this week, as Vick is not a good quarterback without his mobility. The dog has won three consecutive Patriot games, and we think they will come out very motivated to avoid falling below .500, especially after last week’s pasting at the hands of the Chargers. New England has covered 13 of their last 17 road games.
Patriots 23, Falcons 20
3* Bills -3 +105 vs. Dolphins
This is all but a must-win for the Bills, and they have correctly chosen to start Kelly Holcomb at QB this week. Holcomb will be able to utilize receivers Moulds and Evans, which will open up McGahee in the running game. If you take a look at these team’s results this season, you will see the home teams have been dominant (6-0 SU & ATS).
This continues here in a big game for the Bills.
Bills 20, Dolphins 10
2* Rams -2.5 vs. Seahawks
This pretty much seems too easy. Why the Rams are laying less than a field goal in this game is beyond me. They beat the Seahawks in all three meeting last year. The Seahawks are one of the worst road teams in football (1-13 ATS on road in October), while the Rams have been one of the better home teams in football.
Rams 31, Seahawks 21
2* Bears +3 -115 @ Browns
We can’t pass on the Bears getting points from the Browns. The Bears have the 4th overall defense, while the Browns are 30th. The Browns are slightly better offensively, but Bears QB Orton has the weapons to put enough points on the board and let his defense do the rest. The Bears have covered eight of their last nine as a dog after a bye week, and are 24-10 ATS against the AFC recently.
Bears 14, Browns 10
1* Cards +3 -120 vs. Panthers
We’re putting a 1* on this because of the amazing tendency of the underdog to cover in Panthers games (23-7-1). The home team is dominant in Cardinals games (24-9). Also, the Cardinals finally showed the firepower everyone has been expecting from them. McCown is settling in, and the Panthers are off an emotional win and a short week of rest.
Cardinals 24, Panthers 21
NFL Totals (10-6-0, +10.60*)
4* Buccaneers @ Jets Under 31.5
3* Dolphins @ Bills Under 35
3* Ravens @ Lions Under 33
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