1. 01-09-12 11:07 PM #1
    No coincidences
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    Packers -8

    I see everyone seems to be back on the Giants' bandwagon -- especially given their lopsided playoff opener and how close this game was during the regular season.

    I've been fading Green Bay almost all season and it's borderline hazardous to my health. Now the Giants are suddenly the trendy dog -- that's typically when they go splat. I think the Packers win this game going away.

    Let's get real here: you're going to fade Rodgers on his home turf against an erratic team like the G-men? Who knows what you'll get from the visitors. I do know what we'll get from Green Bay. Pack by at least 10. Might be my biggest NFL bet of the year.
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  2. 01-09-12 11:28 PM #2
    k13
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    Packers win for sure.
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  3. 01-09-12 11:39 PM #3
    Big Bear
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    I dont know boys this one could be close.
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  4. 01-09-12 11:42 PM #4
    warriorfan707
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    I think I agree with you here NC, I could easily see a laugher
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  5. 01-09-12 11:43 PM #5
    GamblerSpirit
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    Isn't the line down to -7.5 from the original -9? Hmmm.
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  6. 01-10-12 12:13 AM #6
    suicidekings
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    You say "erratic" G-Men, but they've really taken care of business the last 3 weeks, elevating their game substantially for the playoff run. Added to that, they very nearly beat the Packers in Week 13 and have the components in place to beat the Packers, including the cold-weather experience. I think this is going to be a great game to watch, and a bad game to bet.
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  7. 01-10-12 12:23 AM #7
    freakydave
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    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    You say "erratic" G-Men, but they've really taken care of business the last 3 weeks, elevating their game substantially for the playoff run. Added to that, they very nearly beat the Packers in Week 13 and have the components in place to beat the Packers, including the cold-weather experience. I think this is going to be a great game to watch, and a bad game to bet.
    & the 15-1 Packers have not taken care of business including beating the NYG?
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  8. 01-10-12 01:44 AM #8
    suicidekings
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    Quote Originally Posted by freakydave View Post
    & the 15-1 Packers have not taken care of business including beating the NYG?
    Didn't say they haven't. But be objective in assessing your team. We're not talking about 15 blowouts. Six of those wins were one possession games, and that win over the Giants was decided by a field goal as time expired. The Packers are in the bottom third of the league in defense, and it's obviously been good enough in the regular season, but in a single game, anything can happen. What if GB doesn't win the turnover battle?

    The point I was making is that the Giants surged to end the year, and have won 4 of their last 5 games. They're peaking in performance at the right time just like the Packers did last season, so not giving them credit for that surge would be unwise.
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  9. 01-10-12 05:56 AM #9
    p19101
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    I see everyone seems to be back on the Giants' bandwagon -- especially given their lopsided playoff opener and how close this game was during the regular season.

    I've been fading Green Bay almost all season and it's borderline hazardous to my health. Now the Giants are suddenly the trendy dog -- that's typically when they go splat. I think the Packers win this game going away.

    Let's get real here: you're going to fade Rodgers on his home turf against an erratic team like the G-men? Who knows what you'll get from the visitors. I do know what we'll get from Green Bay. Pack by at least 10. Might be my biggest NFL bet of the year.
    I love to see you on this side. Now you're only missing Paulypoker and Lakerboy and it's complete
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  10. 01-10-12 09:01 AM #10
    Big Bear
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    Packers will be this weeks public burial. Every teaser in the world/ ML parlay will include Packers.
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  11. 01-10-12 09:15 AM #11
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    People either forget or just don't realize how banged up the Packers have been basically all season long, but especially for the past few weeks. You want to roll the dice against Rodgers on his home turf -- be my guest.

    The move from -9 to -8 or even -7.5 is irrelevant. Books are collecting the juice on the Giants right now. Only a dip to -7 would be significant, and even then I wouldn't be too worried given how many people will take the Giants as an underdog both ATS and SU.
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  12. 01-10-12 09:18 AM #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    Packers will be this weeks public burial. Every teaser in the world/ ML parlay will include Packers.
    We'll see. No way of telling for sure yet, but I'd bet way more people bet the Giants ML because they see "value" there vs. throwing the Packers into a parlay or tease.
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  13. 01-10-12 09:23 AM #13
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    Packers will be this weeks public burial. Every teaser in the world/ ML parlay will include Packers.
    Public is all over the Giants.

    Public road dog burial coming up.

    See alabama/lsu.
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  14. 01-10-12 10:30 AM #14
    Big Bear
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    what are the percentages? I'm shocked everyone is not hammering the Packers
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  15. 01-10-12 11:04 AM #15
    p19101
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    People either forget or just don't realize how banged up the Packers have been basically all season long, but especially for the past few weeks. You want to roll the dice against Rodgers on his home turf -- be my guest.

    The move from -9 to -8 or even -7.5 is irrelevant. Books are collecting the juice on the Giants right now. Only a dip to -7 would be significant, and even then I wouldn't be too worried given how many people will take the Giants as an underdog both ATS and SU.
    Sorry but they wern't as banged up as the Giants...
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  16. 01-10-12 11:15 AM #16
    freakydave
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    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    Didn't say they haven't. But be objective in assessing your team. We're not talking about 15 blowouts. Six of those wins were one possession games, and that win over the Giants was decided by a field goal as time expired. The Packers are in the bottom third of the league in defense, and it's obviously been good enough in the regular season, but in a single game, anything can happen. What if GB doesn't win the turnover battle? The point I was making is that the Giants surged to end the year, and have won 4 of their last 5 games. They're peaking in performance at the right time just like the Packers did last season, so not giving them credit for that surge would be unwise.
    I see your point but it isn't enough to say they won 4 of their last 5 you have to look at who they beat.In the 2nd half of the season the NYG's were 3-5 & lost to the 3 remaining nfc playoffs teams.They beat bad teams & had the weakest part of schedule at the end.GB won 4 of their last 5 & are more healthy now than they have been in weeks.In fact the Pack have won 21 of their last 22 beating the NYG twice in that span.So I ask you how are they any less hot than the NYG?
    Furthermore the 49er's are 4-1 in their last 5 & N.O. is 5-0 The Giants are surging but no other team is?
    Last edited by freakydave; 01-10-12 at 12:31 PM.
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  17. 01-10-12 11:50 AM #17
    Mr Handicapable
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    Ross got a concussion on Sunday....big loss for the Giants secondary if he can't go. How have Jennings and Starks healed up for GB? Too many issues up in the air for me on this one. The Giants could win outright or it could be like a few years ago when Dallas was on a nice roll and came into Minnesota with high hopes and got blown out. I would lean NY just because GB has had trouble with even mediocre offenses this year like KC or Cutler-less Chicago. GB hasn't tackled well lately and I doubt there is an on/off switch for that? If they don't tackle well then Jacobs/Bradshaw can give NY some solid balance and they're already guaranteed to have trouble with Eli and his receivers.
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  18. 01-10-12 12:06 PM #18
    freakydave
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Handicapable View Post
    Ross got a concussion on Sunday....big loss for the Giants secondary if he can't go. How have Jennings and Starks healed up for GB? Too many issues up in the air for me on this one. The Giants could win outright or it could be like a few years ago when Dallas was on a nice roll and came into Minnesota with high hopes and got blown out. I would lean NY just because GB has had trouble with even mediocre offenses this year like KC or Cutler-less Chicago. GB hasn't tackled well lately and I doubt there is an on/off switch for that? If they don't tackle well then Jacobs/Bradshaw can give NY some solid balance and they're already guaranteed to have trouble with Eli and his receivers.
    Everybody who isn't listed on IR are good to go most with almost a month of rest.
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  19. 01-10-12 12:12 PM #19
    jihadvillager
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    Teaser packers ravens seems too easy...
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  20. 01-10-12 12:20 PM #20
    Mr Handicapable
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    Quote Originally Posted by freakydave View Post
    Everybody who isn't listed on IR are good to go most with almost a month of rest.
    Ok...then now you're looking at the quality of play GB gets from guys that have hardly played lately like Jennings, Starks, Clifton, and Bishop. If GB tackles Bradshaw & Jacobs like they tackled that Bell kid on Chicago then Rodgers will be sitting on the bench for huge chunks of time.
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  21. 01-10-12 12:27 PM #21
    freakydave
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Handicapable View Post
    Ok...then now you're looking at the quality of play GB gets from guys that have hardly played lately like Jennings, Starks, Clifton, and Bishop. If GB tackles Bradshaw & Jacobs like they tackled that Bell kid on Chicago then Rodgers will be sitting on the bench for huge chunks of time.
    Unless they are walking wounded I suspect the quality of play will be good.
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  22. 01-10-12 12:43 PM #22
    Mr Handicapable
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    Quote Originally Posted by freakydave View Post
    Unless they are walking wounded I suspect the quality of play will be good.
    This last Giants/Dallas game was my biggest play of the year and I was talking about how big it was for the Giants that Manningham was back. He didn't actually do anything in that game but he was huge vs Atlanta. I really think this game could be a classic with Rodgers or Eli trying for some Elway-like moment in the 4th quarter. I really think GB is an Indy-like team where Rodgers covers up alot of flaws but he's great enough to do it again.
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  23. 01-10-12 12:52 PM #23
    freakydave
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Handicapable View Post
    This last Giants/Dallas game was my biggest play of the year and I was talking about how big it was for the Giants that Manningham was back. He didn't actually do anything in that game but he was huge vs Atlanta. I really think this game could be a classic with Rodgers or Eli trying for some Elway-like moment in the 4th quarter. I really think GB is an Indy-like team where Rodgers covers up alot of flaws but he's great enough to do it again.
    That's definately true this season.I expect this game to be a shootout & if GB can force a T.O. they'll cover.If not the team that has the ball last wins.
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  24. 01-10-12 12:54 PM #24
    p19101
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    We saw against the Lions that any1 can step into that team and do well
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  25. 01-10-12 04:15 PM #25
    suicidekings
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    Quote Originally Posted by freakydave View Post
    I see your point but it isn't enough to say they won 4 of their last 5 you have to look at who they beat.In the 2nd half of the season the NYG's were 3-5 & lost to the 3 remaining nfc playoffs teams.They beat bad teams & had the weakest part of schedule at the end.GB won 4 of their last 5 & are more healthy now than they have been in weeks.In fact the Pack have won 21 of their last 22 beating the NYG twice in that span.So I ask you how are they any less hot than the NYG? Furthermore the 49er's are 4-1 in their last 5 & N.O. is 5-0 The Giants are surging but no other team is?
    The Giants had the toughest second half schedule in the entire league... It's hard to fault them for losing @SF & @NO, and the GB game was tight. IMO, anything much further back than about 4 weeks (not just in this case, but in general) has to be weighted a lot less when assessing a team's current form. Winning 21 of 22 is not a useful statistic... Beating Dallas twice and the Jets once to close out the year is no small accomplishment.

    And again, I'm not advocating a play on this game at all. I think the Giants will be a live dog here, playing with confidence and possessing the tools needed to potentially win this game. The Packers are healthier now than they have been for weeks and will obviously come to play. I'm just looking forward to watching this game with nothing at stake. Should be a great one.
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  26. 01-10-12 04:53 PM #26
    thebestthereis
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    Live dog is Hooterston
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  27. 01-10-12 04:54 PM #27
    Stevedore
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    Quote Originally Posted by p19101 View Post
    We saw against the Lions that any1 can step into that team and do well
    That's a slight?
    How about chalking it up to GOOD COACHING rather then being an inconsistent team all year and just playing hard when the giants feel like it.
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  28. 01-10-12 05:04 PM #28
    p19101
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stevedore View Post
    That's a slight?
    How about chalking it up to GOOD COACHING rather then being an inconsistent team all year and just playing hard when the giants feel like it.
    Hey I take my chances to pick on the Packers, they are few and far between
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  29. 01-10-12 05:26 PM #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by thebestthereis View Post
    Live dog is Hooterston
    I agree with this in theory. Just not sure about backing Yates on the road. Everything else is in place though -- good defense, running game and a game-changer at WR.
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  30. 01-10-12 07:11 PM #30
    DMB40
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    Giants are getting healthy. They didn't have osi or tuck and Blackburn had a few days to get ready for the game. Too many variables here to lay a big bet either way. If the giants can run the ball like last week watch out.
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  31. 01-10-12 09:40 PM #31
    RL75
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    Under Mike McCarthy the Packers are 7-1 overall and 8-0 ATS after a bye week. The only loss was 2008 @ Tennessee. Tennesse was 7-0 at the time. Packers lost 19-16 in overtime. Tennesee was a 4 point favorite.

    Sorry I don't have spreads for all these games.

    2006 - GB 34, @MIA 24
    2007 - GB 19, @DEN 13; @GB 42, SEA 20 (playoffs)
    2008 - GB 16, @TEN 19
    2009 - @GB 26, DET 0
    2010 - GB 31, @MN 3; GB 31, PIT 25 (Super Bowl)
    2011 - GB 45, @SD 38 (SD was +5.5)
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  32. 01-10-12 10:00 PM #32
    Ambition
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    This game is too much of a toss up for me. Aaron Rodgers hasn't played in 3 weeks and I think the Packers will have a slow start and the Giants will jump out in front early. But, the Packers will heat up and battle back to win but not by 8. I'll take the Giants pass rush and the red hot Giants over the Packers who hasn't played their best football as of late. Tease the Giants to +13.5 and cash in easy. BOL
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  33. 01-10-12 10:02 PM #33
    Ambition
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    Quote Originally Posted by RL75 View Post
    Under Mike McCarthy the Packers are 7-1 overall and 8-0 ATS after a bye week. The only loss was 2008 @ Tennessee. Tennesse was 7-0 at the time. Packers lost 19-16 in overtime. Tennesee was a 4 point favorite.

    Sorry I don't have spreads for all these games.

    2006 - GB 34, @MIA 24
    2007 - GB 19, @DEN 13; @GB 42, SEA 20 (playoffs)
    2008 - GB 16, @TEN 19
    2009 - @GB 26, DET 0
    2010 - GB 31, @MN 3; GB 31, PIT 25 (Super Bowl)
    2011 - GB 45, @SD 38 (SD was +5.5)
    This is completely irrelevant. Bill Belichick & Tom Brady had the same great statistics about winning after a bye week and this year they played Pittsburgh after their bye week and lost. These trends aren't important, IMO.
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  34. 01-11-12 12:04 AM #34
    freakydave
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ambition View Post
    This game is too much of a toss up for me. Aaron Rodgers hasn't played in 3 weeks and I think the Packers will have a slow start and the Giants will jump out in front early. But, the Packers will heat up and battle back to win but not by 8. I'll take the Giants pass rush and the red hot Giants over the Packers who hasn't played their best football as of late. Tease the Giants to +13.5 and cash in easy. BOL
    Yeah as I said the giants are no hotter than the Packers the Saints or SF.
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  35. 01-11-12 12:34 AM #35
    freakydave
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    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    The Giants had the toughest second half schedule in the entire league... It's hard to fault them for losing @SF & @NO, and the GB game was tight. IMO, anything much further back than about 4 weeks (not just in this case, but in general) has to be weighted a lot less when assessing a team's current form. Winning 21 of 22 is not a useful statistic... Beating Dallas twice and the Jets once to close out the year is no small accomplishment. And again, I'm not advocating a play on this game at all. I think the Giants will be a live dog here, playing with confidence and possessing the tools needed to potentially win this game. The Packers are healthier now than they have been for weeks and will obviously come to play. I'm just looking forward to watching this game with nothing at stake. Should be a great one.
    Here your being completely disengenious(Not candid or sincere)The cowboys & the Jets & Redskins are not very good teams.Your overrating the level of competition they beat.Meanwhile GB plays their 2nd string QB & is w/o their best WR sit several starters on D & beat the then 10 -5 playoff bound Lions who have everything to play for at that time.But that means nothing because the Giants are streaking & have momentum.I know your not advocating a side but you have made alot better arguments supporting your opinions in a many of your previous posts.Every team left in the NFC playoffs are just as hot as the Giants right now.That's my point.
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