Who have the Bengals ever beaten? Does it get any lighter than this ...
Cleve twice (and not covering their last one as 6.5 pt fave, as only won by 3), Buff, Jax, Indy, Sea, Tn, St. L & AZ. They lost to Pitt twice, Balt twice, SF, Den & HOUSTON ... by 1 PT! Did you also know that Cincy covered 7 of their first 8 games, and then only covered 1 of their next 8?
How about Hous, who beat Pitt and covered the 4 by winning by 7? They also won and covered over Atlanta. Did you also know that out of their last 10 games, their record is 7-2-1 ATS?
Am figuring all these trends hold true to form, except the one where Houston didn't cover against Cincy last time at home, but did beat them by 1. Am figuring the Texans crush Cincy today, and win by at least 2 scores.
Texans -4 [24-10]
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As far as the Saints are concerned, how can they lose at home? They won't as they have massive home field advantage, and a Super Star named Sproles (Runs {87x**, Catches {86x**, ZERO fumbles not to mention 7 TD's last 4 gms. As far as covering though, a lot of good cappers I've seen are taking the points. My guess is, they think that Detroit plays much better today then we've seen lately, and the Saints play much worse. You know the Motor City won 2 big bowl games (Michigan & MI ST), have an up and coming hoop team, and first place Wings & Tigers. Detroit knows sports, and perhaps they think the spread should be like 7, but since the Book needs Lion money, the Book ups it so high to even the stacks.
The Saints have just been covering too easy lately maybe, not only winning but covering too ... 8 in a row!!!!!!!! Though don't forget, the Saints D did not give up more than 24 points in their last 8 games, and gave up under 20 in 5 of them!!!!! Lions have only covered 3 of their last 11. Now in a playoff game, these crazy underdog lions are going play their tails off, and somehow, someway (possibly creating a TO on D), or something to keep the game close maybe. Saints last beat them by 17, so the Book figures a TD on the playoff picture and make the spread like 10 or 11. Playoffs are always more tight, and much more conservative of course too.
Folks, have been on the Saints all year, and they have been good to me, so my money has to stay with them. I for one will not let the Book's 11 points lure me. To even offer so many points in a playoff game tells me the Saints are way too good. What you'll see, is Detroit playing their worst game today, and the Saints playing their best.
Saints -10.5 [38-20]