[ballsyman]

TOP PLAYS
5 UNIT PLAY

Cincinnati/ Houston Under 38:LOser Defense, defense defense. That's what this game will be all about. The Houston Texans come in ranked in the NFL's top five in total defense, against the run and the pass and scoring defense. This is a defense that really needed to play well this year, especially down the stretch when injuries ravaged their offense. The Houston offense had averaged 27.3 ppg through their first 10 games, but once Schaub went out they then put up just 18 ppg in their last 6 games. Houston has really turned to their run game down the stretch and i expect the to use it here as well as they won't take many chances with rookie QB TJ Yates. I expect the Bengals to use the same game plan with Benson, as they will also not look to take chances with their rookie QB. The Bengal defense has really been tough this year as well as they rank in the top 10 in Total defense, rushing defense, passing defense and points allowed and they should be able to hold down this Houston offense that has struggled down the stretch. Both teams will really take the conservative approach here as they won't take chances with their rookie QB, plus it also doesn't hurt to have 2 of the best all around defenses on the field as well. I just don't see how this game can hit 38 points. Go with the Under here. KEY TRENDS--- CINCINNATI is 16-5 UNDER in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the season since 1992, while HOUSTON is 10-3 UNDER on grass fields this year.



4 units on the Bengals and the ML +180 LOser

4 units on the Bengals+ 4 LOSER

3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY

New Orleans/ Detroit Over 59: Winner The OVER is 6-1-1 in the Saints last 8 playoff games, while their last 3 non-Superbowl postseason games have all hit at least 59 points. This game features 2 QB's that have combined for 10,500 yards and 87 passing TD's. Are you serious?!!!. The Saints have the ability to score every time they touch the ball and that usually means that team have to abandon the run quickly in their games. Running the ball will NOT keep Detroit in this one, especially since their running game is 29th in the league (95.2 ypg). Theiir pass game, however is ranked 4th in the leageu (300.4 ypg) and they are 12th in the league in yards per pass attempt (7.2 ). The Saints know something about passing and the big play as they rank 1st in passing (334.2 ypg) and they rank 3rd in yards per attempt at 8.1 (9.5 ypa in the last 3 games). These two high powered attacks, that are 1-2 in the league in pass attempts per game (82 combined) will take aim at two of the worst pass defenses in the league. Teams have had to pass vs the Saints just to keep up, so the Saints come in allowing 259.8 ypg (30th), while Detroits shoddy pass defense comes in allowing 239.4 ypg and they are not coming in here on a high note as they allowed Packers backup QB Matt Flynn to throw for 480 yards and 6 TD's. That deserves a second " Are You Serious?!!!). The Saints last 3 down the stretch have all topped 60 points and they average 41 ppg at home on the year, while Detroit's last 3 have averaged 62 ppg and they have hit 28+ points in each of their last 4 games. I expect about 65 points in this one (38-27 Saints). POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Over if the road team is off an upset loss as a favorite and they have a winning record on the season. This play is 51-21 the last 5 seasons.


7 POINT TEASER--- Cincinnati/ Houston Under 45 & lions+18 Winner


Saints-11 for 1 unit Winner

BEST OF LUCK EVERYONE


I also cap at PG under jeff scott sports

[Bbobbi]

Nice write-ups. I was just watching espn and they were saying that they are going to let dalton look for aj green often. Any thoughts?

[ballsyman]

I like the Bengals here +4, I see a tight game, both Defenses will be on there game today, I am adding cincy+ 4 as a 2 unit play. Best of Luck Bbobbi.....I can see the bengals winning outright

[ballsyman]

Shitty Day as well in the NFL going 3-3 (-6.8 units)......Overall 12-9 +3.4 units since joining SBR