If Peyton Manning was healthy all year? I still think they do. Granted, a Colts team with Manning is a lot better than what they had, there are more problems on that team than just QB. Their D is awful, and the running game barely exists. I'll give the Colts 5 more wins with Manning this year, which would have them finish at 7-9.
I think they would have been neck and neck for the division if Manning was playing. They look like a different team since Orlovsky has been in there. I think this season shows how bad their head coach and Curtis Painter are more than anything.