[dlunc3]

Will update shortly followed by a write up... Wanna let tonights game finish out...


stay tuned

[dlunc3]

will be easily my largest bet of the season, looking at 10 units... I rarely bet more then 3/4 units on a game...

[BigDan]

lemme guess....philly?

[BigDan]

just playing...kinda

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Just hurry up and post the damn play so we can all fade it.

[grizzlies1]

Just checked the lines. Falcons +7 are you kidding me? I think they can win SU esp with Grimes coming back at CB. Getting a TD is a gift!!

[dlunc3]

Though it will not affect my play much, I want to wait to see the opening line on my sites and prepare my write up for this play.

[letsgo]

Just checked the lines. Falcons +7 are you kidding me? I think they can win SU esp with Grimes coming back at CB. Getting a TD is a gift!!

How many games at home have the saints not at least won by 7?

[uup115]

Just checked the lines. Falcons +7 are you kidding me? I think they can win SU esp with Grimes coming back at CB. Getting a TD is a gift!!

where do you get the lines so early?

[BigDan]

where do you get the lines so early?

Bookmaker

[YouHave2outs]

they were up on 5dimes hours ago as well, i'm liking Falcons +7 as well.

[SportsPedagogy]

Eagles +3 is a lock ! Dallas Defense can't stop that offense with Vick. Hopefully the Giants lose to the Jets and then get so heartbroken that Dallas beats them in week 17 or else the Eagles got a shot at the Division. Your homer bet may payoff bud.

[troynewell47]

dlunc3 POST IT NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

[BigDeem5]

Eagles to win the superbowl is a lock.

[troynewell47]

^^^ check out my thread, i called it

[ThaWoj]

How many games at home have the saints not at least won by 7?

last 4 meetings have been decided by 3 points. (one of those in new orleans).

ima huge saints fan but against the falcons its always close no matter what.

[dlunc3]

Week 16:

4:05 PM ET
San Diego at Detroit

Teams ROT Record Odds
SD
123 7-7 (2-4 V) 51
DET
124 9-5 (4-3 H) -3


This play will be my game of the year. Since my early gambling days 5+ years back (when I used to bet crazy amounts with no rhyme or reason), this will be my largest wager since betting $4,000 on a Colts game a few years back in which they covered and cashed me a nice ticket. I am a $200 unit bettor, and rarely bet more then 3/4 units, usually just 1 or 2, as my spreadsheet shows. Since September 1st, I have surpassed the 100 unit mark including NFl, CFB, and CBB since it has started. NFL has always been my best sport. Up until this week, I had not had a losing week this year. This week I dropped 5 units and am prepared for a nice comeback week. This will be a 12 unit bet for me.

I have had my eye on this play for close to a month now. The play has set up exactly how I had hoped it would. Only small aspect I would have changed is I would have had SD win a closer game vs. Balt last night, rather then a blowout. But, they continued to show the kind of team they are late in the season and how they tide has turned on their season. I was happy to get through the game healthy while continuing the strong play.

To start, lets take a look at this Detroit team that will be taking the field has a home favorite on Christmas Eve. As we all know, Detroit came out hot this year going 5-0 to begin this season. The following two games, they lost at home vs SF then again at home vs Atlanta. I will not hate on them too much for these shortcomings, as SF and Atl are quality playoff caliber teams, and Det played tough with with teams. The following Sunday, October 30th, Detroit showed up at the Mile High Stadium and completely embarrassed the Denver Broncos. This was the last time that fraudulent team showed their fraudulent faces. Since that game, Detroit has slowly gone backwards. They have gone 3-3 since that point, with wins only vs bottom of the barrel Carolina, Minny, and Oakland (who is playing like a bottom 5 team in football right now). Since the 5-0 start, this “playoff “ team is 4-5 with their only quality win being vs Denver (the beginning Tebow, which was also 2 months ago). To take a closer look, lets go back to December 11th at home vs the 2 win Minesota Vikings , who was playing without Adrian Peterson. Detroit allowed Ponder, Joe Webb, and company to go for 425 yards IN THEIR OWN BUILDING (what might phillip rivers do to them? ). Minny coughed the ball up 6 TIMES yet, with just seconds remaining in the game, Joe Webb and the 2 win Vikings, were in position to win the ball game vs this “playoff” Detroit Lions team. As you will remember, Joe Webb was blatantly facemasked inside the 5 yardline, but the ref missed the call, and the game ended with Detroit winning the game by 6. I will not take a win away from Detroit here, but I will remember how this game played out. The following week, just yesterday, Detroit went into the black hole in Oakland. This Oakland Raiders team once again was playing without their best playmaker, DMC, along with their top WR, J.Ford. This was the same team that had lost 77-3 the first three quarters in their previous two games prior to the garbage time 4th quarters. This same Raiders team led this “playoff” Detroit Lions team until the 39 second mark of the game when yes, the better team prevailed. The below average Oakland wrs were able to get behind this Detroit secondary time and time again, but luckily for Detroit, fumbles, drops and bad throws kept them from blowing the game out. The Lions then allowed the Raiders to get into position for a gamewinning kick when luckily, Carson Palmer committed one of the sins of a QB and took a sack that essentially ended the game. So again, I give credit to Det and wont take a win away from them, but I will remember how this game played out.

All this so far just to say: this Det lions team could VERY EASILY be 2-7 since their 5-0 start. Detroit has not kept any team below 27 points in 8 WEEKs, since the game vs the Tebows. They are the 2nd most penalized team in football, and their inexperience will show in a big time game this week.

On the opposite side of the ball, lets take a look at the San Diego Chargers. I will not make any excuses for the way this team started the season. But, just like the 5-0 start for the Lions has been long forgotten, the terrible start for the Chargers is long forgotten. Yes Buffalo and Jacksonville are bottom of the barrel teams, just like the minny and oak team that det beat… but, I view these wins as 100% different. The Charges offense, that we all knew was talented, has finally figured things out, just as they normally do this time of the year. They have completely dominated both sides of the ball three straight weeks now, with one of the blowouts being vs the Baltimore Ravens. This team is hot. Offensively, Rivers is back to his probowl self, and has all his weapons healthy once again. Vjax, Floyd, Tolbet, Matthews, Gates are all healthy and good to go. The offensive line has also been shored up, and has figured things out as well as of late, as Rivers has had the time he needs to work, even against that tough Balt Ravens defense. The SD defense has continued their strong play, not allowing any team to go over 20 points in 7 straight weeks. (34 points total in the last three combined). Rivers is a career 23-2 in December. Since the talk of Turner losing his job, this team has shown what they can really do on a football field to back their coach. Now at 7-7, these chargers are within striking distance and know that this game in Detroit is a MUST WIN.

The glaring advantage in most peoples eyes for Det this week is that it is a home game in front of their hometown fans. Though this seems like a great advantage, after speaking to some of my very knowledgeable contacts, the home field advantage in a game like this is not as great as one may think. With Christmas being less then 24 hours way, it will be very easily for players not to be 100% focused. A team like Det, who is very young and immature, could easily lose focus this time of the yr. From what I am told, these type games also favor the road team, as they are together for days in advance and do not have the “homelife” stealing their focus as they are in a different city with one goal in mind----WINNING.

Det is sitting pretty at 9-5, looking good in the standings. I am not saying that it will happen, but it would be very easy for this young team to come out flat and make stupid mistakes with the pressure of clinching a playoff spot on their minds. This team has not played well at home this year even without that pressure. They are 0-3 vs the 3 playoff teams they have played, and are 3-4 ATS in total. This is including their 5-0 fraudulent start. The Chargers beginning of the season was disastrous as well, but are 3-0 ATS the past 3 weeks and like I said, are obviously not the same team as we saw earlier this season, much like Det. Det has not covered a spread since week 11, yet is still being overvalued. Vegas will take a bad beating this week, as they are offering a great early Christmas present to all of us.

Detroit has been relatively healthy this season, but will still be without their top safety, Louis Delmas , and corner Chris Houston is also still dealing with a knee injury (not sure the extent of this one though). These could be concerns vs a potent passing offense like SD. On offense, from what I could see, Ksmith still did not look like himself this week, so the rushing attack for Det will continue to be average at best.

The Chargers have been slowed by injuries all season, both offensively and defensively. On offense, they have found what seems to be a good solution on the offensive line, while also getting all their playmakers back on the field. The injuries on defense has really taken its toll on this team this season, but as of late, the defensive unit seems to have figured things out (much like the offense), while like I said, holding 6 straight teams to 20 or less.

With all that nonsense said, I see this game as a great spot for the chargers vs an overvalued fraudulent team in Detroit. I expect this line to be closer to a pickem by gametime. The chargers being an underdog, getting an entire field goal seems almost like a joke to me. One of the hottest teams in football going against a team that was lucky/happy just to get by the vikes at home and the raiders on the road, is a nobrainer in my mind. I saw this game coming a few weeks back, and knew that vegas would have no choice but to make the lions a favorite in this spot. The chargers turned their season around in December, as expected, and now is rolling as one of the most talented teams in football clicking on all cylinders. I will never again call a game a lock… but this one just feels like the wrong side is getting three points. I know these numbers dont mean much once the game starts, but when a team that gives up less then 20 on average recently, meets up with a team that cant stop a nose bleed, or a team from scoring 27+, it is a good small ingredient for the recipe for success. The moneyline is the best value I see, but I will be taking the 3 points and running with them. I see a 10 point win for the chargers, without much of a problem. A bad turnover or mishap is all I could see keeping this game close.. even still, getting three points will be more then enough to steal this money from my book.
Ill take the 23-2 December QB and his veteran team against the young overrated Lions in this spot all day every day. Buy your bookie a little gift, and wish him a Merry Christmas as you politely accept the lump of cash he hands you next Monday.

SD +3 for 12 units

[Grecdogg]

That's a write up!

[BigDan]

wow...ill have to read that later, im not only shocked by the length but also happily surprised it isnt the eagles so now i can take it seriously

off top of my head my biggest concern would be det d-line are monsters at home and sd o-line is still banged up i believe..havnt really looked into it yet tho...BOL

[CK]

These are the kind of games I usually don't play, but I agree with the write-up and the lean. SD is really looking good the past few games now that their injured players are back and in the flow. They are definitely capable of playing at an elite level.

[dlunc3]

wow...ill have to read that later, im not only shocked by the length but also happily surprised it isnt the eagles so now i can take it seriously

off top of my head my biggest concern would be det d-line are monsters at home and sd o-line is still banged up i believe..havnt really looked into it yet tho...BOL

I see where you are coming from, but the Det D-line is slightly overrated in my mind. They fall just inside the top 10 in sacks in the whole nfl. With that wide 9 they run, there is no excuse not to be top 5 easy. They leave their linebackers out to dry vs the run. They are deadlast ranking 32nd in the league giving up 5.2 ypc on the ground. Suh is definitely a monster, but fairley has been absent and cwill has been just average for the interior. Vanden Bosch and Avril have been decent on the outside, but imo, they should be be having bigger years in that style d. They cant stop the run to save their life, so you would think they would be getting to the qb more to make that d worth it.

On the other side of the ball, since the chargers brought in big ass jered gaither 3 weeks ago, they have given up only 2 sacks total! the right side of that line along with the center are solid, its the left side that has been the concern. Gaither has played huge along with green who has stepped in and played well as of late. SD has run the ball very efficiently behind this line the last few games, along with them protecting rivers. Sure, I could see the det line gettting to rivers occasionally, but I was very impressed how they they held down balt (the leagues leading sack team coming into this week) to 0 sacks last night.

The chargers should shred this det line running the ball with matthews and tolbert. I think sd will move the ball at will this week, whether it be on the ground, or through the air.

[BigDan]

no doubt, they are fukkin horrible against the run...honestly sd is the only way i would go, i never bet against rivers in dec..

[BigDan]

i gotta say bro that is a very well done write up and really hard to argue with anything you said..

[NYSportsGuy210]

The OVER in this game is the better play. Points will be put up with these two offenses.

[Night-Tripper]

Week 16:

4:05 PM ET
San Diego at Detroit

Teams ROT Record Odds
SD
123 7-7 (2-4 V) 51
DET
124 9-5 (4-3 H) -3


This play will be my game of the year. Since my early gambling days 5+ years back (when I used to bet crazy amounts with no rhyme or reason), this will be my largest wager since betting $4,000 on a Colts game a few years back in which they covered and cashed me a nice ticket. I am a $200 unit bettor, and rarely bet more then 3/4 units, usually just 1 or 2, as my spreadsheet shows. Since September 1st, I have surpassed the 100 unit mark including NFl, CFB, and CBB since it has started. NFL has always been my best sport. Up until this week, I had not had a losing week this year. This week I dropped 5 units and am prepared for a nice comeback week. This will be a 12 unit bet for me.

I have had my eye on this play for close to a month now. The play has set up exactly how I had hoped it would. Only small aspect I would have changed is I would have had SD win a closer game vs. Balt last night, rather then a blowout. But, they continued to show the kind of team they are late in the season and how they tide has turned on their season. I was happy to get through the game healthy while continuing the strong play.

To start, lets take a look at this Detroit team that will be taking the field has a home favorite on Christmas Eve. As we all know, Detroit came out hot this year going 5-0 to begin this season. The following two games, they lost at home vs SF then again at home vs Atlanta. I will not hate on them too much for these shortcomings, as SF and Atl are quality playoff caliber teams, and Det played tough with with teams. The following Sunday, October 30th, Detroit showed up at the Mile High Stadium and completely embarrassed the Denver Broncos. This was the last time that fraudulent team showed their fraudulent faces. Since that game, Detroit has slowly gone backwards. They have gone 3-3 since that point, with wins only vs bottom of the barrel Carolina, Minny, and Oakland (who is playing like a bottom 5 team in football right now). Since the 5-0 start, this “playoff “ team is 4-5 with their only quality win being vs Denver (the beginning Tebow, which was also 2 months ago). To take a closer look, lets go back to December 11th at home vs the 2 win Minesota Vikings , who was playing without Adrian Peterson. Detroit allowed Ponder, Joe Webb, and company to go for 425 yards IN THEIR OWN BUILDING (what might phillip rivers do to them? ). Minny coughed the ball up 6 TIMES yet, with just seconds remaining in the game, Joe Webb and the 2 win Vikings, were in position to win the ball game vs this “playoff” Detroit Lions team. As you will remember, Joe Webb was blatantly facemasked inside the 5 yardline, but the ref missed the call, and the game ended with Detroit winning the game by 6. I will not take a win away from Detroit here, but I will remember how this game played out. The following week, just yesterday, Detroit went into the black hole in Oakland. This Oakland Raiders team once again was playing without their best playmaker, DMC, along with their top WR, J.Ford. This was the same team that had lost 77-3 the first three quarters in their previous two games prior to the garbage time 4th quarters. This same Raiders team led this “playoff” Detroit Lions team until the 39 second mark of the game when yes, the better team prevailed. The below average Oakland wrs were able to get behind this Detroit secondary time and time again, but luckily for Detroit, fumbles, drops and bad throws kept them from blowing the game out. The Lions then allowed the Raiders to get into position for a gamewinning kick when luckily, Carson Palmer committed one of the sins of a QB and took a sack that essentially ended the game. So again, I give credit to Det and wont take a win away from them, but I will remember how this game played out.

All this so far just to say: this Det lions team could VERY EASILY be 2-7 since their 5-0 start. Detroit has not kept any team below 27 points in 8 WEEKs, since the game vs the Tebows. They are the 2nd most penalized team in football, and their inexperience will show in a big time game this week.

On the opposite side of the ball, lets take a look at the San Diego Chargers. I will not make any excuses for the way this team started the season. But, just like the 5-0 start for the Lions has been long forgotten, the terrible start for the Chargers is long forgotten. Yes Buffalo and Jacksonville are bottom of the barrel teams, just like the minny and oak team that det beat… but, I view these wins as 100% different. The Charges offense, that we all knew was talented, has finally figured things out, just as they normally do this time of the year. They have completely dominated both sides of the ball three straight weeks now, with one of the blowouts being vs the Baltimore Ravens. This team is hot. Offensively, Rivers is back to his probowl self, and has all his weapons healthy once again. Vjax, Floyd, Tolbet, Matthews, Gates are all healthy and good to go. The offensive line has also been shored up, and has figured things out as well as of late, as Rivers has had the time he needs to work, even against that tough Balt Ravens defense. The SD defense has continued their strong play, not allowing any team to go over 20 points in 7 straight weeks. (34 points total in the last three combined). Rivers is a career 23-2 in December. Since the talk of Turner losing his job, this team has shown what they can really do on a football field to back their coach. Now at 7-7, these chargers are within striking distance and know that this game in Detroit is a MUST WIN.

The glaring advantage in most peoples eyes for Det this week is that it is a home game in front of their hometown fans. Though this seems like a great advantage, after speaking to some of my very knowledgeable contacts, the home field advantage in a game like this is not as great as one may think. With Christmas being less then 24 hours way, it will be very easily for players not to be 100% focused. A team like Det, who is very young and immature, could easily lose focus this time of the yr. From what I am told, these type games also favor the road team, as they are together for days in advance and do not have the “homelife” stealing their focus as they are in a different city with one goal in mind----WINNING.

Det is sitting pretty at 9-5, looking good in the standings. I am not saying that it will happen, but it would be very easy for this young team to come out flat and make stupid mistakes with the pressure of clinching a playoff spot on their minds. This team has not played well at home this year even without that pressure. They are 0-3 vs the 3 playoff teams they have played, and are 3-4 ATS in total. This is including their 5-0 fraudulent start. The Chargers beginning of the season was disastrous as well, but are 3-0 ATS the past 3 weeks and like I said, are obviously not the same team as we saw earlier this season, much like Det. Det has not covered a spread since week 11, yet is still being overvalued. Vegas will take a bad beating this week, as they are offering a great early Christmas present to all of us.

Detroit has been relatively healthy this season, but will still be without their top safety, Louis Delmas , and corner Chris Houston is also still dealing with a knee injury (not sure the extent of this one though). These could be concerns vs a potent passing offense like SD. On offense, from what I could see, Ksmith still did not look like himself this week, so the rushing attack for Det will continue to be average at best.

The Chargers have been slowed by injuries all season, both offensively and defensively. On offense, they have found what seems to be a good solution on the offensive line, while also getting all their playmakers back on the field. The injuries on defense has really taken its toll on this team this season, but as of late, the defensive unit seems to have figured things out (much like the offense), while like I said, holding 6 straight teams to 20 or less.

With all that nonsense said, I see this game as a great spot for the chargers vs an overvalued fraudulent team in Detroit. I expect this line to be closer to a pickem by gametime. The chargers being an underdog, getting an entire field goal seems almost like a joke to me. One of the hottest teams in football going against a team that was lucky/happy just to get by the vikes at home and the raiders on the road, is a nobrainer in my mind. I saw this game coming a few weeks back, and knew that vegas would have no choice but to make the lions a favorite in this spot. The chargers turned their season around in December, as expected, and now is rolling as one of the most talented teams in football clicking on all cylinders. I will never again call a game a lock… but this one just feels like the wrong side is getting three points. I know these numbers dont mean much once the game starts, but when a team that gives up less then 20 on average recently, meets up with a team that cant stop a nose bleed, or a team from scoring 27+, it is a good small ingredient for the recipe for success. The moneyline is the best value I see, but I will be taking the 3 points and running with them. I see a 10 point win for the chargers, without much of a problem. A bad turnover or mishap is all I could see keeping this game close.. even still, getting three points will be more then enough to steal this money from my book.
Ill take the 23-2 December QB and his veteran team against the young overrated Lions in this spot all day every day. Buy your bookie a little gift, and wish him a Merry Christmas as you politely accept the lump of cash he hands you next Monday.

SD +3 for 12 units

You do realize that by the time you wrote your term paper, that +3 was no longer available... right?

Sure am glad that I bet the game as soon as the line started dropping.

I shoulda bet it Sunday night... but at least I didn't wait as long as most.

[nmiller1232]

Great write up.

Gonna tail and a little more than I normally would bet personally. If Im pretty confident it'll be 4-5 units for me. (total around $40-$50) I use $10 units because I am a college student and recently started betting a couple months ago.

Tailing this one though, I'm thinking $70 on the spread and $30 on the Chargers ML.

Thanks for the write up!

(Just looked, line's already down to 2.5 ; getting it in now! Thanks again)

[uup115]

funny how after the writeup the jokes have stopped...

[Love The Action]

You keep on calling the Lions "fraudulent" but dont say why except that they won some games they did not deserve. Unfortunately, that is most teams in the league as well and past wins or losses mean nothing in this game. I could call SD a fraud for the same reasons you mentioned about detroit.

You've only had one losing week in 2011? Wow, that is unbelievable and I am a bit skeptical unless you do not wager every day.

Where did you get +3? Only vegas had that number that I can see as the offshore market opened +2.5. You bet with a local?

Other than saying the lions will be distracted based on your "contacts" I didn't see you factor crowd/home field into your analysis. Your distraction angle is only valid when the game is played on the holiday, not before. The crowd noise will hurt those o-line replacements. Any thoughts on that?

All in all, I think you may be overvaluing the chargers just a bit but it does look as though they are on a late season run. Im on the over but good luck!

[BigDan]

funny how after the writeup the jokes have stopped...

that cause he screwed up all my joke material by not making it on the Eagles...

could have made the writeup smaller and just said "Rivers in dec" and it would have worked.. see my jokes are no good now...

[BigDan]

You keep on calling the Lions "fraudulent" but dont say why except that they won some games they did not deserve. Unfortunately, that is most teams in the league as well and past wins or losses mean nothing in this game. I could call SD a fraud for the same reasons you mentioned about detroit.

You've only had one losing week in 2011? Wow, that is unbelievable and I am a bit skeptical unless you do not wager every day.

Where did you get +3? Only vegas had that number that I can see as the offshore market opened +2.5. You bet with a local?

Other than saying the lions will be distracted based on your "contacts" I didn't see you factor crowd/home field into your analysis. Any thoughts on that?

All in all, I think you may be overvaluing the chargers just a bit but it does look as though they are on a late season run. Im on the over but good luck!

no idea about the contacts but Lions are fukkups so i can buy distractions...dont buy crowd not being a factor as the dome is not a fun place to play...like the over as well but like i said writeup could be 3 words for me "Rivers in dec", i never fade superchargers this time of year..

[Speedy88]

My guess is that the over is the safest play. I would give a slight lean to the Lions just because they are at home, and I think their D-line will completely dominate SD's O-line. People continually overlook the impact of Detroit's pass rush.

[Big Bear]

has he released the play yet? the suspense is getting to me

[bucsfan]

Now thats a write up. Thank You, threw a couple of points your way. BOL everyone and lets get that cash

[dlunc3]

You keep on calling the Lions "fraudulent" but dont say why except that they won some games they did not deserve. Unfortunately, that is most teams in the league as well and past wins or losses mean nothing in this game. I could call SD a fraud for the same reasons you mentioned about detroit.

You've only had one losing week in 2011? Wow, that is unbelievable and I am a bit skeptical unless you do not wager every day.

Where did you get +3? Only vegas had that number that I can see as the offshore market opened +2.5. You bet with a local?

Other than saying the lions will be distracted based on your "contacts" I didn't see you factor crowd/home field into your analysis. Your distraction angle is only valid when the game is played on the holiday, not before. The crowd noise will hurt those o-line replacements. Any thoughts on that?

All in all, I think you may be overvaluing the chargers just a bit but it does look as though they are on a late season run. Im on the over but good luck!

"You keep on calling the Lions "fraudulent" but dont say why except that they won some games they did not deserve. "

I had to stop somewhere, right? to further explain my "fraudulent" term used.. the lions came out of the gate strong off am offseason where noone knew what to expect from teams after a strange offseason. Their coach had them ready from the get-go. Much like the Bills, or even Redskins, they came out ready to play and were very successful to start the year. But again, like the Bills, they crashed back down to earth since that strong start. They have not had an impressive outing in two months. It took a lucky break just to get by Joe Webb, and a last minute drive to get by the freefalling raiders. Not really impressive wins, would you say? I try not to look at records when capping games. I just see that this team has not played a complete football game in months, and if forced to look at records, could very well be 2-7 since that strong ,"fraudulent" start. Their 9-5 record is very misleading. Looking at that record, you would think you are looking at a good football team.. when in actuality, you are looking at a team that has been struggling for 2 and a half months now.

"Other than saying the lions will be distracted based on your "contacts" I didn't see you factor crowd/home field into your analysis. Your distraction angle is only valid when the game is played on the holiday, not before. The crowd noise will hurt those o-line replacements. Any thoughts on that?"

The home field was factored in when pointing out Detroits lack of success at home this season. They are 3-4 against the spread at home, and 0-3 straight up at home vs the 3 playoff teams they have faced... this includes the embarrassing home loss to GB on Thanksgiving. The game was a blowout, even moreso then the score indicates. The young inexperienced Lions came out and couldnt put even a single point on the board vs the leagues 31st ranked defense in this big time spot. I do expect the stadium to be loud with the fans fired up, but ill put my money on the veteran leadership of phillip rivers. A loud environment will be nothing new for him, especially this time of year. He came out with these same fresh o-line replacements in a road Monday night game just two weeks ago (yes I know it was against Jax.. but either way, we all know a rd monday night game is tough no matter who you are playing. This same Jax team beat up on Baltimore earlier this season on monday night right?), and came out firing on all cylinders. There will obviously be small concerns in any game on the board that you chose, and this may be one for this game. But not enough to worry me, esp after seeing Detroits big game performance just a few weeks back. A game in recent memory that comes to mind is Rivers vs the Tenn Titans back in 2009. The titans had won 7 or 8 games going into the Christmas Day game at home. Rivers brought his boys into this tough environment, and proceeded to blowout the titans 42-17.

"You've only had one losing week in 2011? Wow, that is unbelievable and I am a bit skeptical unless you do not wager every day."

Yes, been a great 4 month run. This month slowed down a bit with college fb coming to a close, but am still hitting slightly over 60% on over 100 plays in the month of December. This whole month has been documented on my spread sheet. I cant make any promises that this run will keep up, but ill definitely ride it out as long as I can. By all means, I am dreading football coming to an end, as it has been a nice steady source of income.

"Where did you get +3? Only vegas had that number that I can see as the offshore market opened +2.5. You bet with a local?"

Yes, I got it with my local here in philly... I see that it is being offered +2.5 in most places now. I would still take those points and run with them (personally I would probably buy the 1/2 pt as extra insurance). Like I said though, I dont feel the points will be needed, as I see a 10+ point win. But i like the 3 point insurance in case something flukey happens (like the rivers dropped kneel down to cost them a game earlier this season )

[BigDan]

i like you Dlunc but sbr spreadsheets are more fraudulent than the Lions..

12/12/2011 05:55 PM dlunc3 deleted 1 pick(s) from their spreadsheet.
12/12/2011 05:55 PM dlunc3 edited 1 of their picks
12/10/2011 10:53 AM dlunc3 deleted 1 pick(s) from their spreadsheet.
12/10/2011 10:52 AM dlunc3 edited 1 of their picks
12/08/2011 08:57 PM dlunc3 deleted 1 pick(s) from their spreadsheet.
12/06/2011 02:44 PM dlunc3 deleted 1 pick(s) from their spreadsheet.
12/06/2011 02:44 PM dlunc3 deleted 1 pick(s) from their spreadsheet. 12